3FOOD

Third Industrial Revolution Consulting Group
The drop to near zero GWh of the existing energy resources leads to the positive outcome of
zero energy-related carbon emissions by 2050. 391 This result is driven by the scaled-up set of
investments in energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies. Looking ahead to Table 7,
the overall energy-related annual investments in the TIR Innovation scenario are made up of
energy efficiency improvements, on the one hand, and renewable energy options, on the other
hand. The volume of these investments is just under 100 million euros in 2017, growing slowly
to an estimated 500 million by 2030. From there the investments decline somewhat to 377
million by 2050, with an average annual investment of 420 million in energy-related
technologies. 392 The reason for that very small reduction in annual investments in later years is
because the less costly energy efficiency improvements begin to pick up more market share and
penetration in 2030. This requires, in turn, a smaller contribution from the slightly moreexpensive
investments in the renewable energy resources—even as those fixed costs also
decline as described below.
Over the full period 2017 through 2050, the cumulative mix of annual energy efficiency and
renewable energy investments will add up to just over €14 billion (in 2015 constant euros). This
is substantially less than the €20.6 billion reflected in the Table 3 thought experiment. Part of
the reason is that, according to Fraunhofer’s KomMod model, and as reviewed in the paragraph
following Table 3, the renewable energy costs are expected to decline over time compared to
the example characterized in Table 3. At the same time, however, there will be other
information and infrastructure upgrades which might roughly triple the magnitude of
investments suggested for the energy-related improvements alone. While the information does
not exist in sufficient detail to provide a precise estimate of necessary investments for the nonenergy
infrastructure improvements, drawing from a variety of sources suggests a cumulative
TIR-related investment that is on the order of €46 billion. This is the equivalent of about one
year’s GDP invested to upgrade the infrastructure, equipment and appliances in Luxembourg
over the next several decades. Still, the lack of better data on these related costs, as they might
be estimated for the Grand Duchy, is why we continue to emphasize the need for new metrics
applicable to the build out of the Third Industrial Revolution digital infrastructure in order to
facilitate future assessments.
391 Although not emphasized as part of this assessment, by focusing on the economic perspective to generate
significant cost-effective investments in both energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies, the economy
clearly benefits from lower overall costs. At the same time, as that mix of clean energy technologies penetrates the
market, the need for fossil-fuel resources slowly (and cost-effectively) declines to zero. This means that the
Luxembourg economy will have zero energy-related carbon emissions by 2050. Hence, the more productive
pattern of energy efficiency and other clean energy investments produces a significant benefit for global climate
change that should exceed the anticipated target of the December 2015 Paris accord.
392 For added clarity, the energy efficiency improvements average €105 million per year while the renewable
energy deployments average €305 million per year.
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