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Third Industrial Revolution Consulting Group Table 6 that follows provides a more complete “scenario context.” The Reference Case assumptions include a current combination of fossil fuel energies alongside a small amount of renewable energies. By contrast, the TIR Innovation Scenario includes a vast increase in energy efficiencies alongside an ambitious shift to renewable energies to allow Luxembourg to achieve 100 percent renewable energy capacity, again, 70 percent of which will be generated domestically, and the other 30 percent transmitted into the country from surrounding nations by 2050. Table 6. Illustrative Outcomes for Luxembourg’s TIR Innovation Scenario Metric 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050 Population Growth Inhabitants 576,192 596,303 627,794 745,278 884,746 1,050,315 GDP Million Euros 2000 39,793 42,246 46,211 62,322 84,048 113,349 Total Energy Demand Reference Case GWh 25,419 25,426 25,437 25,473 25,509 25,545 Reference Case Energy Expenditures Million Euros 2015 1,997 2,008 2,024 2,077 2,133 2,190 2,100 TIR Innovation Energy Demand GWh 25,419 25,122 24,243 21,528 19,118 16,977 - Energy Efficiency Gain GWh 0 304 1,194 3,944 6,391 8,568 - Existing Energy Supply GWh 25,419 25,022 23,293 15,329 7,529 0 - Increments of New Renewable Energy GWh 0 100 950 6,200 11,588 16,977 - Annual Average 2016-2050 TIR Innovation Net Energy Bill Savings Million Euros 2015 0 -14 52 197 350 485 250 Gross Energy Bill Savings Million Euros 2015 0 0 96 334 575 821 420 Program, Policy, Transaction Costs Million Euros 2015 0 8 16 33 24 19 25 Energy Efficiency Payments Million Euros 2015 0 7 27 105 200 317 145 Energy Supply Expenditures Million Euros 2015 1,997 2,008 1,928 1,743 1,558 1,369 1,680 Source: STATEC, OECD data/ projections and DEEPER model simulations. To better orient the reader, first note the row that is labeled TIR Innovation Energy Demand, and then note the initial energy demand of 25,419 GWh listed in the year 2015. This is also referenced two rows down under the listing of Existing Energy Supply. As the energy efficiency investments kick in, beginning in 2017, and the Increments of New Renewable Energy (effectively, the array of renewable energy technologies listed in Table 4) begin to penetrate the market, the need for the Existing Energy Supply slowly drops to near 0 GWh by 2050. 440
Third Industrial Revolution Consulting Group A Side Note on the Job Creation Potential in Luxembourg Table 1 in this section offered a useful context to understand the seven different economic and employment drivers that underpin the transition to the Third Industrial Revolution. At this point, however, it is useful to draw on estimates from other segments in the master plan to offer concrete examples of how TIR-related investments might positively impact future employment gains. For example, Germany’s vast experience in retrofitting buildings provides a useful insight for the job creating potential in Luxembourg as it embarks on its own nationwide retrofitting project. To date, as reported in the Buildings section of the master plan, 342,000 apartments have been retrofitted, creating or saving more than 141,000 jobs in Germany. Looking across more of the European economy, a 2011 analysis by the Buildings Performance Institute Europe (BPIE) suggested a potential energy savings in EU buildings ranging from 32 to 68 percent by 2050, depending on the scope and scale of upgrade investments. The investment cost might range from €343 to €937 billion, with a net consumer bill savings from €160 to €381 billion over the period 2012 through 2050. The combination of investments and net energy bill savings might drive a net annual employment gain of 500,000 to 1.1 million jobs (see, Table 1 in the Buildings section of the master plan). The Stanford/UC Berkeley study noted that with a combination of energy efficiency improvements and the deployment of solar and wind renewable energy resources, by 2050 Luxembourg could meet nearly 100 percent of its energy needs by renewable energies alone. For example, of that total renewable energy supply, 67 percent of Luxembourg’s energy needs could be met by utility-scale Solar PV systems, again by 2050. That would require an upfront capital cost of 20.5 billion Euros (in 2016€) with a levelized cost of electricity estimated at only €cents 9 per kilowatt-hour. That would lead to roughly 7,500 construction jobs to build capacity, and 11,100 permanent operations jobs to operate and maintain the system in Luxembourg. This highlights an additional advantage of producing renewable energy locally compared to the current situation where Luxembourg imports fossil fuels. As noted in the Smart Economy portion of the master plan, an increase in product usage means extracting higher value from the resources. This leads to an increase in aggregate efficiency and productivity. A recent assessment by Accenture projected that savings in materials, recycling, and restoration, will likely exceed $4.5 trillion by 2030 in the global economy while increasing productivity, reducing fixed and marginal costs, creating net new jobs, and lowering ecological footprint. An estimated €1 billion of circular economy activities already occur in Luxembourg, employing upwards of 15,000 citizens, mainly in industry, as well as in buildings and construction, and retailing. The potential value in advancing Luxembourg’s circularity practices by yet another €1 billion in net-material cost savings per year would generate several thousand more jobs within 36 months. This would require scaling circular activities throughout the automotive, construction, financial, logistics, manufacturing, and RDI sectors. 441
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