3FOOD

Third Industrial Revolution Consulting Group
Multiplying the two cost estimates by the Fraunhofer benchmark energy savings or production
by 2050 indicates a preliminary investment requirement on the order of €20.6 billion over the
35-year period of analysis. At this point we can now begin to compare the working example in
Table 3 with published statistics made available through the Fraunhofer Institute’s KomMod
modelling system as shown in Table 4 that follows. 388 In sum, Table 4 highlights 15 different
technologies that can be used to provide a secure and reliable energy source for a variety of
home and business needs. By way of explaining the table, rooftop solar suggests a 2015
investment cost of €1,330 per kilowatt of rooftop photovoltaic capacity in 2015. As previously
mentioned in the Table 1 discussion, with anticipated improvements in materials and design,
Fraunhofer suggests costs will decline to about €660/kilowatt. This change over time may be
sufficient to reduce delivered costs of electricity from about €ct 10/kWh in 2015 to perhaps €ct
5/kWh by 2050. These costs also include annual operating and maintenance systems necessary
to maintain a reliable and safe operation. 389
Table 4. Technology Cost Assumptions for TIR Innovation Scenario
Lifetime Investment Cost (€2015/kW)
Technology
(Years) 2015 2030 2050
wood boilder 20 510 533 565
solid biomass chp plant 30 1,428 1,493 1,583
biogas chp plant 12.5 421 440 466
liquid biofuels chp plant 12.5 421 440 467
rooftop photovoltaics 25 1,330 921 660
free field photovoltaics 25 1,209 837 600
solar heat 25 1,286 777 396
wind power plant 20 999 1,044 1,107
heat pump air-water 20 1,243 1,243 1,243
heat pump brine-water 20 1,492 1,492 1,492
heatpump geothermal probe 20 1,467 1,467 1,467
hydro station 60 3,300 3,452 3,505
power to heat 20 238 238 238
Li-Ion battery* 15 1,558 1,006 666
thermal storage* 20 102 106 113
Source: Fraunhofer Institute ISE (2016). Note: items with asterisks are costs per kWh.
388 See also the extended discussion of energy resource costs in the Energy section of this master plan and the
investment costs and returns from the Luxembourg Sustainable Energy Finance Program, also found in this master
plan.
389 It is worth noting that the costs of photovoltaics, as suggested elsewhere in this master plan, may already be
approaching 55 US cents per watt by 2017, or about €492 per kilowatt (at current rates of currency conversion).
Hence, the results reported here are likely conservative. That is, the costs are higher than what we might expect
from the future market. Net economic benefits reported here may be understated.
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