3FOOD

Third Industrial Revolution Consulting Group
an agility and internal capacity to respond to the 1981 oil glut, Shell sold off its excess before
the glut became a reality and prices collapsed. 383
The question we want to ask in Luxembourg is how TIR Innovation Scenarios, based on the
build out of a more robust and sustainable Third Industrial Revolution infrastructure and
accompanying business models, might compare with a typical or standard projection of the
nation’s GDP growth compared to a conventional Second Industrial Revolution platform. To
begin that comparison, Table 2 summarizes key reference case energy and economic variables
over the period 2015 through 2050 for the benchmark years 2015, 2017, 2020, 2030, 2040 and
2050.
Table 2. Luxembourg Reference Case Projection for Key Energy and Economic Variables
Metric 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050
Population Growth Inhabitants 576,192 596,303 627,794 745,278 884,746 1,050,315
GDP Million Euros 2000 39,793 42,246 46,211 62,322 84,048 113,349
Total Energy Demand Reference Case GWh 25,419 25,426 25,437 25,473 25,509 25,545
Reference Case Energy Expenditures Million Euros 2015 1,997 2,008 2,024 2,077 2,133 2,190
Source: STATEC data/projections with results from the Fraunhofer Institute KomMod Model (July 2016).
The base year, or starting point, of this analytical exercise is 2015. The analysis assumes the
year 2017 is the first active investment in TIR-related investments. The four decadal years of
2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 provide further data and key results. According to 2015 statistics
available from STATEC, the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg had an estimated 576,192 inhabitants
within its borders. Current projections show a population growth rate of 1.73 percent per year.
This means that the population will nearly double to 1,050,315 persons by 2050. That large
increase in the number of inhabitants is expected to drive GDP further, from just under €40
billion in 2015 to a significantly larger economy of €113 billion by 2050, an annual growth rate
of 3.04 percent over that time horizon (with both values expressed in real 2000 Euros rather
than nominal terms). 384 At the same time, building on energy consumption patterns reported
383 The development of the Shell scenarios was led by Pierre Wack, an economist, who was then the head of the
business environment division of the Royal Dutch/Shell Group planning department from 1971 to 1981. For a
deeper review of these early successful efforts in scenario planning, see: Wack, Pierre. 1985. Scenarios: Uncharted
Waters Ahead. Harvard Business Review. No. 85516. September-October, pages 72-89.
384 Since the results from the TIR Innovation Scenarios were first developed, STATEC updated key projections
highlighted in Table 2. Population in 2050 was projected to be 1,057,798—a 0.71% increase shown Table 2. GDP
was reported to be 0.07% higher. These changes are so very small that, rather than spend further time and effort
to update all such results, the decision was made to continue with the July 2016 outcomes. Consistent with the
philosophy of Stanford University’s Energy Modeling Forum, we are modeling for insights rather than precision—or
in this case, evaluating reasonable differences between reference case assumptions as we explore prospective
benefits of the TIR Innovation Scenario for Luxembourg. See, Huntington, Hillard G., John P. Weyant, and James L.
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