3FOOD

Third Industrial Revolution Consulting Group
on the second industrial revolution industries and institutions can be sustained without the
aggregate efficiency productivity gains catalyzed by IoT tools and technologies – especially
given the massive threats of profound economic losses and social dislocation projected to occur
with the continued rise in greenhouse gas emissions and decline of the biosphere’s
irreplaceable natural capital.
The two significant findings of “business-as-usual” trends; first, the level of unpriced economic
losses now being incurred worldwide, and second, the projected economic losses from a
several degree Celsius rise in global average temperature in the coming decades. The negative
externalities impacting the biosphere by damaging, degrading, and destroying natural capital
and ecosystem services has been calculated at $7.3 trillion per year (US$2009), or 13% of world
GDP. 345 The future cost from a several degree C rise has been estimated at $1,240 trillion in net
present value (US$2000). 346
The first figure does not include disasters that may occur in business supply chains, and the
latter figure does not include the catastrophic consequences from any of a dozen tipping points
releasing vast levels of GHG emissions (shown in map below). With these advancing and
looming catastrophes being driven, in essence, by the Second Industrial Revolution economy,
the tremendous value associated with the accelerating and scaling of IoT-based tools and
technologies of the TIR become imperative.
The growth of the prosumer and sharing economy made possible at large scale by IoT tools and
technologies is clearly an integral component of the TIR. In the foreseeable future, it will
comprise an important, but still relatively modest percentage of the larger IoT-driven growth
projected to occur. This is partly explained by the exponential growth curve of IoT infusion into
and throughout the economy, which belies the real progress of the prosumer/sharing economy.
PWC’s 2015 report, The Sharing Economy, in examining five areas - tourism, vehicle sharing,
finance, personnel, and streaming music & video - projects worldwide growth in sharing to onethird
of a trillion dollars per year within the decade. 347 Given the veritable speciation explosion
in Sharing Economy concepts and practices, the next decade will likely experience a
345 TRUCOST PLC (2013) Natural Capital at Risk: The Top 100 Externalities of Business, prepared for The Economics
of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (TEEB) Business Coalition.
346 US1240 trillion is the mean estimate, with no adaptation. Martin Parry, Nigel Arnell, Pam Berry, David Dodman,
Samuel Fankhauser, Chris Hope, Sari Kovats, Robert Nicholls, David Satterthwaite, Richard Ti n, Tim Wheeler
(2009) Assessing the Costs of Adaptation to Climate Change: A Review of the UNFCCC and Other Recent
Estimates, International Institute for Environment and Development and Grantham Institute for Climate Change,
London.
347 PWC (2015) The Sharing Economy, https://www.pwc.com/us/en/industry/entertainmentmedia/publications/consumer-intelligence-series/sharing-economy.html.
404