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Third Industrial Revolution Consulting Group ensors) Visions es not esearch ponentially 2. visions for a yet see it. e driven by new leading market Two Explosive Exponential Trends driving IP addressable Internet of Everything (IoE) Machine-to-Machine (M2M) 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 People Online (billions) People Online Smartphones ries! 1 0.5 0 1995 2000 2014 2020 Source: Benedict Evans, Industrial Internet,11-2014, Partner, Andreesen- Horowitz; and, B. Evans, Mobile Is Eating the World, May 2013 (Left) Road Map for the Trillion Sensor Universe, 11/2013, Janusz Bryzek,VP, MEMS and Sensing Solutions, Fairchild Semiconductor Luxembourg is also advancing circularity in the Sharing Economy with automotive leasing and car sharing, as well as leasing and sharing of building equipment by companies like Floow2 (B2B Internet marketplace) and Loxam, a pioneer in construction and industry equipment rentals. An estimated €1 billion of circular economy activities currently occur in Luxembourg, employing upwards of 15,000 citizens, mainly in industry, as well as in buildings and construction, and retailing. Retailers like Oikopolis (organic produce) and Cactus (supermarkets) have cultivated supplier networks for local products. Traditional resource management firms like SDK (waste recycling), Valorlux (management of household packaging waste flows), and Ecotrel (WEEE compliance collection and recycling) are promoting innovative approaches to educate the public on circularity through mobile apps. 354
Third Industrial Revolution Consulting Group The near-term potential value in advancing Luxembourg’s circularity practices is estimated to approach €1 billion annual net-material cost savings, including generating several thousand jobs within 36 months. This would require scaling circular activities throughout the automotive, construction, financial, logistics, manufacturing, and RDI sectors. Several dozen actions are underway in Luxembourg to expedite circular economy benefits. Regional and Global Export Growth Opportunities Circularity is viewed as a local opportunity as well as an export opportunity, given the massive global economic potential. The report, Luxembourg as a Knowledge Capital and Testing Ground for the Circular Economy, highlights the €7 trillion in renewable energy economic growth worldwide, and how Luxembourg’s key industries could prosper by providing the important material components, including manufactured steel, glass and carbon composites. Luxembourg’s financial sector, with some €3 trillion of investment funds, could also play a critical role in financing circularity across the 28 Member States. That estimate may seem high, but it turns out to be very modest. Consider the following renewable power examples for wind and solar, which are discussed in greater detail in the TIR Strategy Study chapter on Industry. Luxembourg’s ArcelorMittal is a major player in the wind power industry, most recently involved in providing the steel for constructing the 30 MW wind platforms off the cost of Scotland. Each MW required roughly 116 tons of ArcelorMittal’s (recycled) steel. How many megawatts of wind power could be installed at competitive prices over the next three decades? The most recent nation-by-nation world renewable energy assessment provides illustrative calculations. 302 One-third of total global energy needs can be satisfied with 1.96 million turbines of 5 MW each (1.2 million offshore and 0.76 million onshore). The calculated world market opportunity amounts to more than €19 trillion (2016€) between now and 2050. And how much steel would it demand? Assuming 500 tonnes of steel per 5 MW turbine, the total global amount would be more than one billion tonnes, or roughly 12 times the amount of steel ArcelorMittal shipped in 2014. 302 Jacobson, Mark and Mark Delucchi et al. (2015) 100% Clean and Renewable Wind, Water, and Sunlight (WWS) All- Sector Energy Roadmaps for 139 Countries of the World, December 2015, https://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/susenergy2030.html. 355
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