3FOOD

Third Industrial Revolution Consulting Group
Detailed planning of the required interconnection capacity needed in 2050 will be necessary,
since the energy balance, as well as the peak load on the interconnectors, will change
significantly as Luxembourg moves toward a more sustainable energy supply in 2050.
It is also important to consider the gas entry capacity which, due to the limited size of the
country, depends heavily on individual consumers. Following the closure of the country’s sole
CCGT, the total demand has dramatically decreased. In contrast, the peak load on the power
interconnectors with its neighboring countries will most likely increase.
On a local level, similar issues arise in the distribution power grid. The maximum installed
capacity of ~12 MW for solar PV and 1.7 MW for heat pumps, plus additional load from plug-in
EVs, will lead to an even higher localized peak load on the distribution grid. If supply and
demand is properly matched, a significant amount of the solar PV peak load can be absorbed by
the load of the heat pumps and EVs. This results in a limited increase in the local peak load on
the distribution grid.
It will take detailed dynamic load flow calculations to estimate the expected peak loads, since
the load will become strongly dependent on the location of the generation source over time,
combined with the ability to locally absorb that power using DR or storage solutions. This is
necessary for accurate planning of the needed capacity and to ensure the right level of
investments and the timely extension of grid capacity. Otherwise, load shedding becomes
inevitable, leading to dissatisfied customers and underperformance with respect to
Luxembourg’s sustainability goals.
Energy Markets
Luxembourg will continue to rely on the exchange of energy and flexibility through open
European markets, but will have to significantly increase its share of nationally produced
renewable energy. This also reduces security of (sustainable) supply risks, although this is not a
primary driver for the country.
A market structure should be in place to support the connection of local demand and supply.
The EPEX Spot exchange 38 could potentially provide the services to do so, but the current
market structure most likely will not support an open infrastructure that is accessible for energy
traders. EPEX SPOT is currently focused on large volumes of power trading and does not yet
incorporate the locality of the production, nor does it provide access for small players like
energy communities or prosumers.
38 See https://www.epexspot.com/en/
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