3FOOD

Third Industrial Revolution Consulting Group
Modeling Supply & Demand
Using the urban energy system modeling tool, KomMod, a cost-optimal structure of the target
energy system in a temporal, highly-resolved simulation was calculated 36 in a manner that
covers all energy sectors, including electricity, heating, cooling, and local transport energy,
including their interdependencies.
Figure 3: Energy Demand Components Included for the Energy Supply Optimization
This modeling, which accounts for the energy demand components shown in Figure 3, shows
that given Luxembourg’s technical potential, it is feasible that the country could produce 100%
of its renewable energy domestically. The Energy Working Group set a goal of producing a
majority of its energy – between 50% and 100% - with domestically produced renewables. With
this in mind, the TIR Consulting team ran three Ambitious Energy Efficiency (AEE) potential
scenario models with 50%, 70% and 100% of the energy generated domestically by renewable
energies. While the scenario modelling found that producing 100% of its energy domestically
would be technically feasible, a scenario where only 70% is locally generated and 30% imported
is far more cost-effective, as shown in Figures 4 and 5. However, producing 70% of
Luxembourg’s renewable energy needs domestically by 2050 may be a conservative figure. As
36 Input to the Energy Sub-Report, ‘Results of Modelling the Energy System of Luxembourg.’ Gerhard Stryi-Hipp,
Fraunhofer ISE, 27 July 2016.
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