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TIR-CG_Luxembourg-Final-Report_Long-Version TIR-CG_Luxembourg-Final-Report_Long-Version
Electricity Consumption of the Built Environment TWh Third Industrial Revolution Consulting Group 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Single Family Housing Multi-Family Housing Non-residential Sector Baseline consumption level Full Project Consumption level total Figure 5. Contribution to electricity end-use reduction for the three segments of the built environment (single family housing, multi-family housing, and the non-residential sector. LuxSEF and a “Solar Luxembourg” A phased plan for a “Solar Luxembourg” could similarly be deployed in a ten-year timeframe with five increments of 20%. Full Project potential, Phase 1 potential, and generation level can be calculated. To allow for comparison, earlier obtained results for Amsterdam and Munich are given as well. 231 Using the solar city assessment framework developed by FREE 232 , many of the assumptions held by Fraunhofer were used, with the exception of: Unlike the two Fraunhofer studies, which both used 15% efficient PV modules in their calculation, we used 20% efficiency levels here. 20% efficiency is in line with current state-of-the-art in the market and a large-scale deployment as envisaged under a PV bond offering within a SEF strategy should be able to negotiate high quality PV panels. 233 The framework reduces the Full Project potential estimate as it additionally takes into account panel-to-panel shading effects and tilt angles of the PV modules. The estimated Full Project potential stands at 1.38 GWp. It is clear that a significant potential exists within Luxembourg a solar PV deployment would yield approximately 1.35 TWh of 231 See Byrne et al. (2016). 232 See Byrne et al. (2015) 233 See Byrne et al. (2016) 272
Capacity (GWp) Third Industrial Revolution Consulting Group electricity or roughly 28% of the country’s annual electricity consumption. 234 At a €2.0/Wp system price, 235 such a Full Project deployment represents a €2.6 billion investment. At a 2013 installation level of about 100 MW, a Full Project deployment would increase Luxembourg’s solar capacity dramatically. A Phase 1 solar PV component – the first 20% increment of a tenyear deployment strategy – corresponds to 0.28 GWp of solar PV which would generate 0.27 TWh of electricity annually. In terms of investment potential, a Phase 1 component represents a €413 million investment and about a 6% contribution to the country’s current annual electricity consumption. 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.0 0.5 1.0 0.5 Generation (TWh) 0.0 Luxembourg Amsterdam Munich - Project Stage 1 Potential Full Project Potential Generation (TWh) Figure 6. Findings from the FREE assessment module for Luxembourg, Amsterdam, and Munich. The figure depicts the results when solar PV panels are installed at a 25-degree angle. Actual installation angles depend on building morphology and weather conditions. 234 Creos (2014). Annual Report 2014. 235 EuPD Preismonitor (2013). EuPD Photovoltaik Preismonitor Deutschland. Ergebnisse 1. Quartal. Document can be accessed at: https://www.solarwirtschaft.de/preisindex. System price used here is the average system price for rooftop systems of 10-100 kWp. Naturally, an application as envisioned here will deploy many systems of different sizes but, on the other hand, should be able to a) negotiate favorable pricing due to economies of scale and b) benefit from technology development as deployment will take time. 273
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Electricity Consumption of the<br />
Built Environment<br />
TWh<br />
Third Industrial Revolution Consulting Group<br />
7.0<br />
6.0<br />
5.0<br />
4.0<br />
3.0<br />
2.0<br />
1.0<br />
0.0<br />
Single Family<br />
Housing<br />
Multi-Family<br />
Housing<br />
Non-residential<br />
Sector<br />
Baseline consumption level<br />
Full Project Consumption level<br />
total<br />
Figure 5.<br />
Contribution to electricity end-use reduction for the three segments of the built<br />
environment (single family housing, multi-family housing, and the non-residential<br />
sector.<br />
LuxSEF and a “Solar Luxembourg”<br />
A phased plan for a “Solar Luxembourg” could similarly be deployed in a ten-year timeframe<br />
with five increments of 20%. Full Project potential, Phase 1 potential, and generation level can<br />
be calculated. To allow for comparison, earlier obtained results for Amsterdam and Munich are<br />
given as well. 231 Using the solar city assessment framework developed by FREE 232 , many of the<br />
assumptions held by Fraunhofer were used, with the exception of:<br />
<br />
<br />
Unlike the two Fraunhofer studies, which both used 15% efficient PV modules in their<br />
calculation, we used 20% efficiency levels here. 20% efficiency is in line with current<br />
state-of-the-art in the market and a large-scale deployment as envisaged under a PV<br />
bond offering within a SEF strategy should be able to negotiate high quality PV panels. 233<br />
The framework reduces the Full Project potential estimate as it additionally takes into<br />
account panel-to-panel shading effects and tilt angles of the PV modules.<br />
The estimated Full Project potential stands at 1.38 GWp. It is clear that a significant potential<br />
exists within Luxembourg a solar PV deployment would yield approximately 1.35 TWh of<br />
231 See Byrne et al. (2016).<br />
232 See Byrne et al. (2015)<br />
233 See Byrne et al. (2016)<br />
272