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Third Industrial Revolution Consulting Group building stock constructed since 1970 for six building types. The total usable non-residential floor space amounts to 8.3 million m 2 . In addition, public building stock data is, according to the Third NEEAP, not available at all. As such, an estimated combined building stock of approximately 36 million m 2 is available in the residential and non-residential market segments. Estimating Luxembourg’s Rooftop Solar Energy Potential A recent study from Fraunhofer Institute calculated Luxembourg renewable energy potential. 223 Updating the findings from a 2007 study that estimated renewable energy potential, 224 Fraunhofer estimates that Luxembourg has a theoretical potential to generate 33.000 GWh/a from solar PV. 225 In terms of technical potential, and specifically focusing on rooftop deployment of solar PV (as opposed to PV on land or on building facades), the 2007 study maintains that 127.000 buildings with an average 168 m 2 yields about 21.3 million m 2 of rooftops. Considering that not all rooftops are suitable for PV deployment, the 2007 study uses a 0.6 discount factor to produce a total rooftop space in the country of 12.8 million m 2 . 226 Under the irradiation conditions and 15% efficiency, this translates to 2.004 GWh/a. Using updated numbers – specifically an increase of the building stock from 127.000 buildings to an estimated 160.000 buildings – the 2014 study increases the estimate to 2.524 GWh/a. 227 At an average rooftop space of 168 m 2 , that translates to a total rooftop space of 26.88 million m 2 and, at a 0.6 discount factor, about 16.3 million m 2 of rooftops that are available for solar PV installation. LuxSEF and Self-Financed Energy Productivity Strategically, a phased plan for Luxembourg could be developed that pursues energy use reductions in the high-consumption building stock first (typically the older, non-retrofitted 223 Schon, M., & Reitze, F. (2015). Wissenschaftliche berating zu fragen der energiestrategie Luxemburg smit besonderem fokus auf erneuerbare energien – aktualisierung der potentzialanalyse fur erneuerbare energien. Fraunhofer Institut fur System- un Innovationsforschung (Fh-ISI) and IREES GmbH. 224 Biermayr, P., Cremer, C., Faber, T., Kranzl, L, Ragwitz, M., Resch, G., Toro, F. (2007). Bestimmung der potenziale und ausarbeiting von strategien zur verstarkten nutzung von erneuerbaren energien in Luxemburg. Fraunhofer Institut fur System- und Innovationforschung (Fh-ISI), Energy Economics Group (EEG), and BSR-Sustainability. 225 Using 1.043 kWh/m 2 solar irradiation, 212 km 2 of available land, and an assumed 15% PV module efficiency. 226 The 2007 study reserves half of the 12.8 million square meters for solar thermal technology installations for further calculations. Here, we calculate the technical potential of solar PV and neglect solar thermal technology and, therefore, use the full 12.8 million square meters in the calculation. 227 Schon, M., & Reitze, F. (2015). Wissenschaftliche berating zu fragen der energiestrategie Luxemburg smit besonderem fokus auf erneuerbare energien – aktualisierung der potentzialanalyse fur erneuerbare energien. Fraunhofer Institut fur System- un Innovationsforschung (Fh-ISI) and IREES GmbH. 270
Third Industrial Revolution Consulting Group buildings in the residential and non-residential building stock). 228 Retrofit construction cycles for deep retrofit efforts can be estimated to take up to two years. A phased plan could therefore be to deploy retrofit rounds in two-year increments that each cover 20% of the highconsumption building stock for a total ten-year strategy. Energy use conditions in high-consumption building stock can be lowered from the current 190, 160, and 180 kWh/m 2 a for single family homes, multi-family homes, and non-residential buildings, respectively to 120 kWh/m 2 a. Indeed, 120 kWh/m 2 a can be considered a conservative value for retrofitted buildings that have benefitted from short- and long-term energy conservation measures. 229 Energy use conditions in high-consumption building stock can be lowered from the current 190, 160, and 180 kWh/m 2 a for single family homes, multi-family homes, and non-residential buildings, respectively to 90 kWh/m 2 a. Indeed, 90 kWh/m 2 a can be considered a conservative value for retrofitted buildings that have benefitted from short- and long-term energy conservation measures. Such an approach lowers energy consumption of the high-consumption stock by approximately 50% which would decrease total built environment energy consumption by 1.67 billion kWh/a or about 27.5%. This is consistent with case study analysis of deep retrofit performance. 230 The investment potential of such a ten-year deployment corresponds to about €3.2 billion. In terms of a first phase, where 20% of the high-consumption building stock is retrofitted to the same level of 90 kWh/m 2 a, built environment energy consumption would be lowered by 5.5% or about 335 million kWh/a. Such a deployment represents a self-funding investment of about €665 million. The contribution to electricity end-use reduction is illustrated in Figure 5 for both a Phase 1 and a Full Project deployment. 228 Buildings with ‘normal’ consumption patterns and even ‘low’ consumption profiles will likely also be available for retrofitting at lower cost per square meter 229 For instance, Hoos et al. maintain that buildings can be retrofitted to at least 90-100 kWh/m 2 a and Merzkirch et al. (Merzkirch, A., Maas, S., Scholzen, F., Waldmann, D. (2014). Wie genau sind unsere energiepasse? Vergleich zwischen berechneter und gemessener endenergie in 230 wohngebauden in Luxemburg. Bauphysik, 36: 40-43. Doi: 10.1002/bapi.201410007) similarly show that newer buildings have considerably lower energy use. 230 Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) (2015). Deep energy retrofits using energy savings performance contracts: success stories. Rocky Mountain Institute, Boulder, CO. 271
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