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Third Industrial Revolution Consulting Group STATE OF PLAY AND LUXEMBOURG VISION “Luxembourg: a sustainable, world-class financial hub at the vanguard of the digital revolution making transformation happens.” The Finance Working Group (FWG) has had the opportunity to sketch an overarching vision of where the financial sector - and the finance framework as such - will head in 2020 and beyond. This vision strives to reflect the future desired state of the financial framework. Setting aspirations first helps to set goals and objectives designed to make the vision happen later. Key elements to make the vision happen include: A resilient and diversified international financial sector servicing customers in Luxembourg, Europe, and the world A financial center that incorporates the digital revolution successfully A financial center with a high capacity to adapt its offer in order to facilitate the TIR A world-class framework for data protection and infrastructure for e-service A worldwide leading hub for financial innovation, SRI and transparency where impact and socio-economic sustainability go hand-in-hand The Financial Underpinnings of a More Productive Luxembourg Economy If the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg is to elevate its level of economic performance to meet or exceed expectations of the Third Industrial Revolution, it will need both purposeful effort and a different pattern of investments. By purposeful effort we mean the set of new skills, smart policies and programs that enable the development and deployment of energy efficiency upgrades, renewable energy technologies and, more broadly speaking, the substantial upgrade of its existing infrastructure. The latter includes buildings, industrial operations, transportation and telecommunication services, power and water supplies, etc. By a different pattern of investment, we refer to a higher level of annual outlays in those infrastructure upgrades which move away from the current generation of Second Industrial Revolution technologies and toward Third Industrial Revolution digital technologies – the Communication Internet, the Renewable Energy Internet, and the automated Transportation and Logistics Internet atop an Internet of Things platform. As of 2014 Luxembourg is a €49 billion economy as measured by its Gross Domestic Product, or GDP. 202 While a small nation of 563,000 inhabitants, it has one of the highest per capita GDPs in the world. Like all nations, however, it must confront the social and economic reality of both 202 Luxembourg in Figures 2015, STATEC (Institut national de la statistique et des étude économiques), September. 254
Third Industrial Revolution Consulting Group climate change 203 and an economy that is less robust than in past years. The reason that climate change has become such a big problem is the hugely inefficient use of energy and other resources that results in the pumping of large quantities of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere all around the globe. 204 Were both Luxembourg and the global economy twice as energy-efficient as they are today, by definition only half of the energy-related greenhouse gas emissions would be forced into the upper atmosphere. At the same time, the very reason that the climate is burdened by an excess of greenhouse gas emissions is the same reason the economy is constrained by an array of costs which robs it of its overall vitality—that is, the wholly inefficient use of energy and other resources. Hence there is the very real need to solve both the climate and the economic problems together, through much greater emphasis on the productive use of assets and resources. And here is where Luxembourg has a critical asset – its financial prowess and strength – which must be redirected toward a more productive transformation of its technologies and infrastructure. According to the data maintained by STATEC, the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg has an estimated 3.3 Euros of capital stock for each Euro of GDP. 205 In 2014, therefore, the nation’s total capital stock was estimated at about €168 billion. Building stock is about €95 billion while transport is €18.8 billion. 206 There are two elements worth noting here. First, and most interesting, Luxembourg appears to transform only 32 percent of total economic activity into GDP. This is closely related to Luxembourg being a very open economy, with exports reaching 213% of GDP and imports 178%. 203 Perhaps as a timely reminder of the growing problem of climate change, the weather editor for the Washington Post, Jason Samenow writes in a 16 May 2016 news story that the average temperature of the planet was 1.11 degrees Celsius above the long-term average in April, shattering the old record from 2010 by 0.24 degrees Celsius. He notes further that “2016’s average global temperature is so far out in front of any preceding year that climate scientists say there’s basically no way it won’t become the warmest ever recorded.” See, Earth’s relentless streak of record-warm months expands to seven. 204 By way of comparison, the TIR Master Plan for Nord-Pas de Calais suggested an eventual efficiency improvement that could reduce total energy use by about one-half with renewable energy technologies meeting all remaining energy needs by 2050. This would effectively bring that region’s energy-related carbon emissions down to zero. See, Nord-Pas de Calais Third Industrial Revolution Master Plan – 2013, Jeremy Rifkin, Benoit Prunel, Solenne Bastie, Francis Hinterman, John Laitner and Shawn Moorhead. Bethesda, MD: TIR Consulting Group LLC. 2013. For yet a different approach that relies more heavily on renewable energy technologies throughout the world’s economies, see Jacobson, Mark and Mark Delucchi et al., 100% Clean and Renewable Wind, Water, and Sunlight (WWS) All- Sector Energy Roadmaps for 139 Countries of the World, August 9, 2015. 205 Luxembourg in Figures 2015, STATEC (Institut national de la statistique et des étude économiques), September. 206 Perhaps also of interest, information and communication technologies are estimated to be about €1.6 billion. Needless to say this amount will need to grow dramatically if we are to see a fully operational and productive energy Internet, a logistics and transportation Internet, and a communications Internet that links all buildings and other elements of the Luxembourg infrastructure. That, of course, will require large-scale investments. 255
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