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Third Industrial Revolution Consulting Group TRANSMISSION SYSTEM PEAKER REPLACEMENT FREQUENCY REGULATION DISTRIBUTION SERVICES PV INTEGRATION 9 Unsubsidized Levelized Cost of Storage Comparison Certain “in front of the meter” technology and use case combinations are cost-competitive with their dominant or “base case” conventional alternatives under some scenarios, even without the benefit of subsidies or additional, non-optimized streams of revenue; such observation does not take into account potential social or environmental externalities associated with energy storage (e.g., environmental benefits associated with avoided gas peaker investment, etc.) Compressed Air ‡ Flow Battery ‡ Lead-Acid ‡ Lithium-Ion ‡ Pumped Hydro ‡ Sodium ‡ Zinc Flow Battery‡ ‡ Lead-Acid ‡ Lithium-Ion ‡ Sodium Zinc‡ Flywheel ‡ Lithium-Ion Flow Battery‡ ‡ Lead-Acid ‡ Lithium-Ion ‡ Sodium ‡ Zinc Flow Battery‡ ‡ Lead-Acid ‡ Lithium-Ion ‡ Sodium ‡ Zinc $192 $188 $230 $248 $221 $211 $245 $290 $276 $288 $285 $347 $321 $274 $365 $396 $275 $419 $400 $373 $355 $426 $402 $379 $461 $376 $347 $345 $516 $426 L A Z A R D ' S L E V E L I Z E D C O S T O F S T O R A G E A N A L Y S I S — V E R S I O N 1 . 0 $165 – $218 – Gas Peaker (a) Levelized Cost ($/MWh) Source: Lazard estimates. Note: Here and throughout this presentation, unless otherwise indicated, analysis assumes 20% debt at 8% interest rate and 80% equity at 12% cost for all technologies and use cases. Assumes seven year MACRS depreciation unless otherwise noted. Analysis does not reflect impact of evolving regulations/rules promulgated pursuant to the EPA’s Clean Power Plan. ‡ Indicates battery technology. (a) Indicates illustrative conventional alternative to energy storage. Not intended to reflect the sole conventional alternative (or source of value from replacing such alternatives). The lowest cost Copyright 2015 Lazard. conventional alternative for a particular use case may not be the lowest cost conventional alternative for another use case. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard. Source: Lazard (2015) Levelized Cost of Storage LCOS), version 1.0. $658 $686 $739 $789 $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600 $1,800 $892 $927 $948 $923 $950 $957 $989 $1,079 $1,068 $1,129 $1,247 $1,429 $1,692 ‡ ‡ (c) $3 (b) (b) (e) ‡ ‡ (h) (i) (j) (k) (m) ‡ Source: Lazard estimates. Note: Here and throughout th Appalachian bit coal, lo under Section 111(d). ‡ Denotes distributed gen The Industry Working Group rightly considers that, given the global market, energy storage is projected to grow to €44 billion by 2020. End-Use Efficiency-Productivity across Luxembourg Industry The exergetic efficiency-productivity gains enabling solar, wind and storage to cost-effectively resource the global energy system are of utmost value and timeliness. Just as immense, however, are end-use efficiency gains above and beyond the efficiencies stemming from electrification (displacing thermal combustion). Efficiency throughout the value chain is as great of value and timeliness as solar and wind power. A key metric and indicator of efficiency is the ratio of energy required to produce each unit of GDP (e/GDP). A quarter century of increasingly detailed assessments point to efficiency as the single largest pool of low-cost, low-risk means of delivering energy services to the point of use. 228
Third Industrial Revolution Consulting Group This mega-growth market opportunity could satisfy half the world’s yearly total energy needs for a fraction of the cost of expanding new power supply of any kind. Instead of investing the entire ~€100 trillion for a 100% renewable powered global economy, the same delivered services and benefits could be gained by including efficiency and cutting total costs to €50 trillion. In addition to €50 trillion of gross monetary savings, there are massive, cost-free circular economy benefits accruing from the dematerialized form of energy services. Metals, minerals and materials are largely substituted by data, information, knowledge and wisdom. Both cases reap €17 trillion in annual direct and indirect savings and health benefits. Another way to view this market growth in expanding the delivery of energy services in tandem with rapidly diminishing ecological footprints is the following exercise. What would be the economic results if the world averaged 3% per annum energy reductions per unit of Gross Domestic Product (e/GDP) for the rest of the century? The results would catalyze an immense, expanding pool of prosperous outcomes for citizens, consumers, taxpayers, ratepayers, and businesses across the economy, while also enhancing the biosphere. Efficiency is an emerging market worth many tens of trillions of euros in the offering for TIR-driven enterprises. John “Skip” Laitner’s update of the 2003 estimate prepared by Professor Art Rosenfeld, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, with estimates to reflect energy projections by ExxonMobil extended to the year 2050, indicate the following results could accrue. The base case assumes the energy per unit of GDP improving at -2% per year through 2040 and continuing at that same rate through 2050. This was compared to a case where e/GDP improves at -3.0% annually through 2050. TIR GLOBAL ENERGY EFFICIENCY SERVICES MARKET OPPORTUNITIES Energy Efficiency-Productivity Gains in the 21 st Century in Delivering Energy Services at -3% per annum energy reduction per unit of global GDP •12+ TeraWatts per year Savings Potential in 2050 •220 TW Cumulative 35-Yr Savings [equal to 12 yrs of global total use in 2015] •€ 80 Trillion Gross Cumulative Savings (in 2015€) •670 GtCO 2 Cumulative Emission Savings (at negative cost) •€ 60 Trillion Avoided Cost of Carbon 229
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