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Third Industrial Revolution Consulting Group Photo: The German company Enercon’s gearless 7.5 MW wind turbine (Enercon E-126), has been operating worldwide since 2007; it is 50% larger than the 5 MW average size wind turbine used in estimating Luxembourg’s wind opportunities. The Enercon E-126 hub’s height is 135 meters, with a diameter rotor of 127 meters, encompassing a swept area of nearly 13,000 square meters. The 11 turbines of the Estinnes 82.5 MW wind farm in Wallonia, Belgium, are shown above. Fraunhofer LuxRes 2007 (Wind Power) Update report (June 2016) How does the Stanford/UC Berkeley wind power assessment compare with and differ from a Fraunhofer Institute June 2016 report updating the LuxRes 2007 report? 131 The key difference is the time frame, with Fraunhofer focused on 2020, compared to 2050 by the Stanford/UC Berkeley (S/UCB) analysis. The second key difference is capacity factor. While both reports assume 5 MW turbine sizes, Fraunhofer conservatively assumes 23% capacity factor by 2020, and S/UCB assumes 43% achieved by 2050. Capacity factors in the 40 to 50 percent range already occur with increasing frequency in new installations in good wind sites. 132 Fraunhofer estimates technical potential at 5,700 GWh per year, or 28% of their theoretical potential estimate of 20,500 GWh per year; which compares with the S/UCB estimate of 5,900 GWh achievable by 2050, or 8% of the their theoretical potential estimate of 70,000+ GWH per year. Differences in theoretical potential would require a separate study, but appear to be due to different capacity factor assumptions, turbine spacing arrangements, possible differences in assumptions about land availability, wind speeds and durations, plus other potential factors The Stanford/UC Berkeley team estimates 67.3% of Luxembourg’s total energy needs can be satisfied with utility-scale Solar PV systems. This presents 99.6% of technical potential, amounting to 14,400 MW (nameplate capacity). Roughly 287 solar farms would be needed, 131 Fraunhofer (2016) Aktualisierung der Potenzialanalyse für erneuerbare Energien in Luxemburg (Update Analysis of Potential for Renewable Energies in Luxembourg), by Mario Ragwitz, Felix Reitze & Michael Schön, Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research (Fh-ISI) Institute for Resource Efficiency and Energy Strategies (IREES GmbH), June 08, 2016. 132 Shahan, Zachary (2012) Wind Turbine Net Capacity Factor — 50% the New Normal? Clean Technica, July 27, 2012, http://cleantechnica.com/2012/07/27/wind-turbine-net-capacity-factor-50-the-new-normal/. 170
Third Industrial Revolution Consulting Group each 50 MW of rated power, operating at 14.6% average capacity factors. The land footprint would require an area of 129 km2 (12,900 hectares, or 4.96% land area). For context, the area is comparable to 20% of arable land. Most of this land could be available under the solar panels for vegetable cultivation. The LCOE is estimated at €cents 9/kWh, with upfront capital cost of €20.5 billion (in 2016€). Roughly 7,500 construction jobs would be created, full-time equivalent (FTE) to build capacity, and 11,100 permanent operations jobs created. Fraunhofer LuxRes 2007 (Solar PV) Update report (June 2016) How does the Stanford/UC Berkeley solar photovoltaic power assessment compare with and differ from Fraunhofer Institute’s June 2016 report updating the LuxRes 2007 report? 133 As with wind power, the key difference is the time frame, with Fraunhofer focused on 2020, compared to 2050 by the S/UCB analysis. Capacity factors are roughly the same in both reports (15% by Fraunhofer, and 14.6% by S/UCB). A third key difference is the estimated technical and theoretical potentials of Luxembourg’s solar PV availability. Fraunhofer calculates a technical potential of 7,900 GWh per year out of a theoretical potential of 33,200 GWh per year; whereas S/UCB calculates a technical potential of 14,400 GWh per year. Farmers typically receive annual royalty fees for allowing siting of wind turbines. It is impossible to speculate on Luxembourg’s local arrangement, but according to farmers’ experience in the United States, the rural wind advocacy group, Windustry, notes, “Wind lease terms vary quite a bit, but the general rules of thumb is: 3,500 to 7,000 euros per turbine, 2,700 to 3,500 euros per megawatt of capacity, or 2-4% of gross revenues. Larger turbines should translate to larger payments. Compensation packages typically are offered as fixed yearly payments, as percentages of gross revenues, or some combination.” 134 Forming a farmers’ energy cooperative to facilitate expansion of farm-based solar and wind farms is another potential option, and has already been implemented in Luxembourg in the biogas sector for more than 10 years. Agricultural cooperatives have a long history in Luxembourg. 135 University of Luxembourg Law Professor David Hiez has written extensively on the status of cooperatives in Luxembourg, and might be one expert to call upon for insights. 136137 133 Op cit., Fraunhofer (2016). 134 Windustry (n.d.) How Much do Farmers get paid to host wind turbines? http://www.windustry.org/about. 135 Cogeca (2015) Development of Agricultural Cooperatives in the EU 2014, European agri-cooperatives, February 2015, http://www.copa-cogeca.eu/Cogeca. 136 Hiez, David and Willy Tadjudje (2012) Support for Farmers’ Cooperatives; Country Report Luxembourg. Wageningen: Wageningen UR. 137 Hiez, David (2013) Coopératives : Création, organisation, fonctionnement, Dalloz-Sirey. 171
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Third Industrial Revolution Consulting Group<br />
each 50 MW of rated power, operating at 14.6% average capacity factors. The land footprint<br />
would require an area of 129 km2 (12,900 hectares, or 4.96% land area). For context, the area<br />
is comparable to 20% of arable land. Most of this land could be available under the solar panels<br />
for vegetable cultivation. The LCOE is estimated at €cents 9/kWh, with upfront capital cost of<br />
€20.5 billion (in 2016€). Roughly 7,500 construction jobs would be created, full-time equivalent<br />
(FTE) to build capacity, and 11,100 permanent operations jobs created.<br />
Fraunhofer LuxRes 2007 (Solar PV) Update report (June 2016)<br />
How does the Stanford/UC Berkeley solar photovoltaic power assessment compare with and<br />
differ from Fraunhofer Institute’s June 2016 report updating the LuxRes 2007 report? 133 As<br />
with wind power, the key difference is the time frame, with Fraunhofer focused on 2020,<br />
compared to 2050 by the S/UCB analysis. Capacity factors are roughly the same in both reports<br />
(15% by Fraunhofer, and 14.6% by S/UCB). A third key difference is the estimated technical and<br />
theoretical potentials of Luxembourg’s solar PV availability. Fraunhofer calculates a technical<br />
potential of 7,900 GWh per year out of a theoretical potential of 33,200 GWh per year; whereas<br />
S/UCB calculates a technical potential of 14,400 GWh per year.<br />
Farmers typically receive annual royalty fees for allowing siting of wind turbines. It is<br />
impossible to speculate on Luxembourg’s local arrangement, but according to farmers’<br />
experience in the United States, the rural wind advocacy group, Windustry, notes, “Wind lease<br />
terms vary quite a bit, but the general rules of thumb is: 3,500 to 7,000 euros per turbine, 2,700<br />
to 3,500 euros per megawatt of capacity, or 2-4% of gross revenues. Larger turbines should<br />
translate to larger payments. Compensation packages typically are offered as fixed yearly<br />
payments, as percentages of gross revenues, or some combination.” 134<br />
Forming a farmers’ energy cooperative to facilitate expansion of farm-based solar and wind<br />
farms is another potential option, and has already been implemented in Luxembourg in the<br />
biogas sector for more than 10 years. Agricultural cooperatives have a long history in<br />
Luxembourg. 135 University of Luxembourg Law Professor David Hiez has written extensively on<br />
the status of cooperatives in Luxembourg, and might be one expert to call upon for<br />
insights. 136137<br />
133 Op cit., Fraunhofer (2016).<br />
134 Windustry (n.d.) How Much do Farmers get paid to host wind turbines? http://www.windustry.org/about.<br />
135 Cogeca (2015) Development of Agricultural Cooperatives in the EU 2014, European agri-cooperatives, February<br />
2015, http://www.copa-cogeca.eu/Cogeca.<br />
136 Hiez, David and Willy Tadjudje (2012) Support for Farmers’ Cooperatives; Country Report Luxembourg.<br />
Wageningen: Wageningen UR.<br />
137 Hiez, David (2013) Coopératives : Création, organisation, fonctionnement, Dalloz-Sirey.<br />
171