3FOOD

Third Industrial Revolution Consulting Group
Photo: The German company Enercon’s gearless 7.5 MW wind turbine (Enercon E-126), has been operating
worldwide since 2007; it is 50% larger than the 5 MW average size wind turbine used in estimating Luxembourg’s
wind opportunities. The Enercon E-126 hub’s height is 135 meters, with a diameter rotor of 127 meters,
encompassing a swept area of nearly 13,000 square meters. The 11 turbines of the Estinnes 82.5 MW wind farm in
Wallonia, Belgium, are shown above.
Fraunhofer LuxRes 2007 (Wind Power) Update report (June 2016)
How does the Stanford/UC Berkeley wind power assessment compare with and differ from a
Fraunhofer Institute June 2016 report updating the LuxRes 2007 report? 131 The key difference
is the time frame, with Fraunhofer focused on 2020, compared to 2050 by the Stanford/UC
Berkeley (S/UCB) analysis. The second key difference is capacity factor. While both reports
assume 5 MW turbine sizes, Fraunhofer conservatively assumes 23% capacity factor by 2020,
and S/UCB assumes 43% achieved by 2050. Capacity factors in the 40 to 50 percent range
already occur with increasing frequency in new installations in good wind sites. 132 Fraunhofer
estimates technical potential at 5,700 GWh per year, or 28% of their theoretical potential
estimate of 20,500 GWh per year; which compares with the S/UCB estimate of 5,900 GWh
achievable by 2050, or 8% of the their theoretical potential estimate of 70,000+ GWH per year.
Differences in theoretical potential would require a separate study, but appear to be due to
different capacity factor assumptions, turbine spacing arrangements, possible differences in
assumptions about land availability, wind speeds and durations, plus other potential factors
The Stanford/UC Berkeley team estimates 67.3% of Luxembourg’s total energy needs can be
satisfied with utility-scale Solar PV systems. This presents 99.6% of technical potential,
amounting to 14,400 MW (nameplate capacity). Roughly 287 solar farms would be needed,
131 Fraunhofer (2016) Aktualisierung der Potenzialanalyse für erneuerbare Energien in Luxemburg (Update Analysis
of Potential for Renewable Energies in Luxembourg), by Mario Ragwitz, Felix Reitze & Michael Schön, Fraunhofer
Institute Systems and Innovation Research (Fh-ISI) Institute for Resource Efficiency and Energy Strategies (IREES
GmbH), June 08, 2016.
132 Shahan, Zachary (2012) Wind Turbine Net Capacity Factor — 50% the New Normal? Clean Technica, July 27,
2012, http://cleantechnica.com/2012/07/27/wind-turbine-net-capacity-factor-50-the-new-normal/.
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