3FOOD

Third Industrial Revolution Consulting Group
policy issue, and the facts and figures in this paper are intended to inform this decision-making
process.
To illustrate the opportunities specifically in Luxembourg we draw from the nation-by-nation
global 100% renewable energy assessment published in December 2015, undertaken by a joint
team of Stanford University and UC Berkeley research scientists, engineers and economists. 130
These figures should be seen as illuminating the opportunities, rather than precise
recommendations. For example, it’s possible to have more wind and less solar.
The global assessment projects energy growth out to 2050, and assumes the typical economic
growth rate of business-as-usual energy studies. The assessment also postulates the
electrification of all energy services capable of shifting from thermal combustion processes, as
in the case of electric vehicles, space heating systems, and some industrial processes.
Renewable powered hydrogen fuel production is assumed where electric conversion is not
feasible.
The Stanford/UC Berkeley team estimates 22% of Luxembourg’s total energy needs can be
satisfied with land-based wind power. This represents 1/12th (8.6%) of the technical potential.
It amounts to roughly 1,600 MW (nameplate capacity). That would require 319 installed
turbines each 5 MW rated power, and assuming 43% average capacity factor.
The land spacing area for turbines would span 202 km2 (20,200 hectares, or 7.8% of land area),
although 90% of this land area would still be available for farming or ranching. For context, this
is comparable to one-third of the nation’s permanent grasslands. The projected levelized cost
of electricity (LCOE) is €cents 7/kWh. The upfront capital costs would amount to €1.89 billion
(in 2016€). The energy simple payback is 4.3 years, and if the prevention of air pollution and
CO 2 prevention are included, the simple payback shrinks to 1.6 years. Roughly 260 construction
jobs would be created, full-time equivalent (FTE) to build capacity, and 567 permanent
operations jobs created.
130 Ibid., Jacobson, Mark and Mark Delucchi et al. (2015).
169