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Third Industrial Revolution Consulting Group OVERVIEW ENERGY The bulk of the energy we use to heat and cool our homes and run our appliances, power our businesses, drive our vehicles, and operate every part of the global economy will soon be generated at near zero marginal cost and be nearly free in the coming decades. That is already the case for several million early adopters in the EU who have transformed their homes and businesses into micropower plants to harvest renewable energy on-site. In Sweden, already over 50% of the gross final Co-Chairs Claude Seywert and Tom Eischen, and the Luxembourg Energy Working Group; Marcel Volkerts (DNV GL), Rob Wilhite (Navigant Consulting), Kathleen Gaffney (Navigant Consulting), Gerhard Stryi-Hipp (Fraunhofer ISE), and Jeremy Rifkin, TIR Consulting Group LLC energy consumption was generated from renewable sources in 2013. 9 Looking at electricity only, Austria and Sweden are leading the pack with close to 70% of their gross electricity production being generated from renewable sources, predominantly hydro power. Hydro power is the still largest source of renewable energy (370TWh as of 2013) but its share is declining due to the strong increase in generated solar (85 TWh in 2013, projected to increase to 121 10 -462 11 TWh in 2020) and on- and offshore wind (234TWh in 2013, projected to increase to 442-487 TWh in 2020 12 ). Currently, 32% of the electricity powering Germany comes from solar, wind and other renewable energies, accounting for approximately 15% of the total final energy consumption. By 2030, a minimum of 50% of the electricity powering Germany will be generated by renewable energies. 13 In contrast, smaller, more densely populated countries like Belgium and the Netherlands are generating less than 10% of their total final energy use from renewable sources. Luxemburg's projected strong population growth and the fact that it is landlocked intensifies the challenge to meet EU 2020 and COP21 targets. 9 The State of Renewable Energies in Europe, Edition 2014, 14th EurObserv’ÉR Report 10 Renewable energy progress report, European Commission 11 Set for 2020. Solar Photovoltaic Electricity: A mainstream power source in Europe by 2020, European Photovaltaic Industry Association 12 Wind energy scenarios for 2020, European Wind Energy Association, July 2014 13 See: http://www.sueddeutsche.de/wirtschaft/gruener-strom-sommer-sonne-sorgen-1.2638800 14
Third Industrial Revolution Consulting Group In 2013, 74% of the energy produced in Luxembourg was generated by renewable energy sources (RES). However, since 97% of the energy consumed is imported, the share of RES on gross inland energy consumption is only 3.6%. Since petroleum, which accounts for 65% of total final consumption, is heavily consumed by transit traffic and cross-border commuters, the statistics show a more realistic picture without the transport sector. The share of RES on final energy consumption for electricity, heat and fuel for national transport (this does not include fuel tourism and fuel for cross-border commuters), is about 6.1%. The share of RES without renewables consumed in the transport sector (biofuels) amounts to 5.6% (excluding national transport) and to 6.1% (including national transport). 14 In 2013 the final energy consumption without transport amounts to 19.2 TWh per year, composed of 6.8 TWh electricity and 12.4 TWh heat and cold, assumed that the conversion of gas and other energy carriers into heat is on the average 80%. With a “technical RES potential” of 14.4 TWh electricity and 20.7 TWh heat generated in the country, Luxembourg is theoretically able to generate about 250% of today’s electricity and heat demand by its own RES. Photovoltaic has the highest potential with 7.9 TWh, followed by wind power with 5.7 TWh, Biogas and bio liquids in CHP plants with 0.6 TWh, and small hydro power with 0.1 TWh per year. In heat generation, solar thermal demonstrates the highest potential with 14.6 TWh, followed by solid biomass with 4.0 TWh, heat pumps with 1.5 TWh, and biogas and bio liquids in CHP plants with 0.6 TWh per year. 15 16 Taking into account that the technical RES potential within the country is significantly higher than the expected energy demand in 2050, 100% of the energy demand could be generated by RES in the country. The quickening pace of renewable energy deployment is due, in large part, to the plunging cost of solar and wind energy harvesting technologies. The reduction in fixed costs of solar and wind technologies have been on exponential curves for more than 20 years. In 1977, the cost of generating a single watt of solar electricity was 76 dollars, and by 2017 the cost is projected to be 55 cents/Watt. 17 After the fixed costs for the installation of solar and wind are paid back— often as little as five to eight years—the marginal cost of the harvested energy is nearly free. Unlike fossil fuels and uranium for nuclear power, in which the commodity itself always costs something, the sun and the wind are free. In some regions of Europe and America, solar and wind energy is already as cheap, or cheaper, than fossil fuel or nuclear generated energy. 14 All data in the paragraph calculated by Fraunhofer ISE using data from: EU Commission, DG ENER, Unit A4: Energy Statistics, Energy datasheets: EU-28 countries, Luxembourg (values of 2013). 15 Ibid. 16 Aktualisierung der Potenzialanalyse für Erneuerbare Energien, Fraunhofer ISI, IREES, 2015 17 See: http://www.nwclimate.org/news/solar-panel-efficiency-from-solarcity/ 15
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