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ijcrb.webs.com INTERDISCIPLINARY JOURNAL OF CONTEMPORARY RESEARCH IN BUSINESS Appendix: Tables Table 1: Results of Linear VAR(15) specifications JUNE 2011 VOL 3, NO 2 IIP as dependent Variable Oil price as Dependent Variable R-Square 0.6750 0.2400 Adj: R-Square 0.6050 0.0759 F-Statistics 9.5800 1.4600 Log-likelihood 321.45 227.72 AIC -3.4370 -2.3280 SIC -2.8630 -1.7540 Table 2: The Variance Decomposition of the Industrial production for linear VAR (15) Period S.E. DLIIP DLOILP 1 0.053705 100.0000 0.000000 2 0.056036 97.61851 2.381487 3 0.057036 96.40341 3.596589 4 0.057746 95.27262 4.727380 5 0.058128 95.15095 4.849046 6 0.058208 94.14338 5.856615 7 0.058810 92.24228 7.757720 8 0.059396 90.70287 9.297130 9 0.059501 88.50451 10.495491 10 0.059621 87.30238 12.697620 11 0.059824 85.79707 14.202928 12 0.059918 84.82250 15.177502 Table 3: Results of the Non-liner VAR(13) Specifications IIP as dependent Variable Negative oil price as dependent variable Positive oil price as dependent variable R-Square 0.735 0.2638 0.2869 Adj: R-Square 0.656 0.0447 0.0747 F-Statistics 9.314 1.2040 1.3520 Log-likelihood 342.9 327.49 329.20 AIC -3.563 -3.3620 -3.3830 SIC -2.808 -2.6276 -2.6480 Table 4: The Variance Decomposition for Industrial production for VAR (13) Period S.E. DLIIP LPOILP LNOILP 1 0.040370 100.0000 0.000000 0.000000 2 0.046603 97.39291 1.408045 1.199047 3 0.046987 95.79507 2.851712 1.353222 4 0.047257 94.22213 2.825193 2.952674 5 0.048108 91.47025 4.691910 3.837835 6 0.048267 89.97865 5.097522 4.923826 7 0.048367 89.59521 5.456927 4.947860 8 0.048909 87.14882 6.934524 5.916660 9 0.049292 86.82401 7.212015 5.963978 10 0.049540 86.61782 7.145732 6.236452 11 0.050201 84.89029 7.993644 7.116064 12 0.050879 82.28596 9.617595 8.096444 COPY RIGHT © 2011 Institute of Interdisciplinary Business Research 1546
ijcrb.webs.com INTERDISCIPLINARY JOURNAL OF CONTEMPORARY RESEARCH IN BUSINESS Table 5: Comparison of the forecast made by ARIMA and VAR model JUNE 2011 VOL 3, NO 2 years Actual Industrial Production Forecast with ARIMA Forecast with VAR Dec-06 0.025421 -0.047015 0.095557 Jan-07 -0.006828 0.090283 -0.029583 Feb-07 0.042545 -0.021573 0.051208 Mar-07 0.101102 0.001900 0.039940 Apr-07 -0.049716 0.044213 -0.035986 May-07 0.045040 -0.055489 0.022790 Jun-07 -0.018188 0.027511 0.010287 Jul-07 -0.038934 0.015813 -0.039152 Aug-07 0.012784 0.019082 -0.036007 Sep-07 -0.026320 -0.024055 -0.021759 Oct-07 -0.068987 0.004699 -0.017065 Nov-07 0.021308 -0.006726 0.021521 Dec-07 -0.053224 -0.050281 0.045320 Jan-08 0.094012 0.085745 -0.010371 Feb-08 0.014828 -0.020747 0.060548 Mar-08 0.099342 0.001212 0.008656 Apr-08 -0.128414 0.039140 -0.036995 May-08 0.101268 -0.047821 0.040454 Jun-08 -0.059231 0.025058 0.006702 Jul-08 -0.045307 0.015288 -0.037780 Aug-08 -0.110240 0.021196 -0.028078 Sep-08 0.078332 -0.026942 0.006432 RMSE 0.06500 0.05700 MAE 0.05790 0.04700 MAPE 135.247 113.430 Theil Inequality 0.63930 0.56100 Bias Proportion 0.00490 0.00100 Variance Proportion 0.15850 0.15300 Covariance Proportion 0.83360 0.84000 COPY RIGHT © 2011 Institute of Interdisciplinary Business Research 1547
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