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The Good-Bad of 2016 Football Realignment
By Les Willsey, azpreps365.com
The first thing football fans need to familiarize themselves
with for 2016 is the turn-back-the-clock realignment. A realignment
method that doesn't go back far — essentially a year.
It's a lot of change on the surface. Eighty-seven schools
have moved up a conference or two. Sixteen have gone down
a conference. That's movement of 103 out of 235 (44 percent).
Like any realignment, there are pluses and minuses. This
writing is to sort out the good and bad of the change with regard
to football.
Here we go:
THE GOOD
Even though a boatload of schools have moved up from
last year's experimental jab at realignment, using factors beyond
enrollment (competitive history, school population
makeup via free and reduced lunch data), it shouldn't be
cause for despair. The number of conferences/classifications
is the same (6). Conferences are balanced in terms of number
of schools in each — Class 6A has 40, Class 5A (43),
Class 4A (44), Class 3A (37), Class 2A (41) and Class 1A
(30). Regions (formerly sections) are comprised of a more
manageable and flexible 5 to 7 schools. In most cases geographic
location prevailed in setting regions.
Schools were diligent in tailoring their schedules to their capability/competitive
level, as last year's realignment strived
with schools being able to petition what conference they competed
in based on the added factors. That's a concession —
sad in many respects — but the reality is the majority of
schools in every conference have little to no chance of winning
a state championship. Being competiitve and settling for
achieveable levels of success is the norm going forward. Winning
two or three games, instead of none, going .500, maybe
even winning a region are now goals. Even if they're unspoken
or hidden under a "our goal is to win a state championship."
An example is what took place with Phoenix Union district
schools last year. The current 6A Metro Region (six schools)
and its 5A Union region sister schools (four out of six) competed
together — two conferences down last year in the same
section. The result? More of their games were competitive.
Five teams had winning records. One finished 0-10. The year
before only one of the 10 had a winning record. While they
are split up in two conferences this year, they will cross over
and play most of their games against one another. The exception
is Cesar Chavez. Winning a couple games, perhaps
breaking even or better, beats going 0-10 or 1-9. Phoenix
Union schools have gone more than 20 years without advancing
to a championship game.
Decline is not limited to Phoenix Union either. The newly
formed 6A East Valley Region consists of Mesa's six high
schools. Two were D-I last year (Red Mountain and Mountain
View) and four D-II (Dobson, Mesa, Skyline and Westwood).
Mesa schools dropoff has taken off quite a bit in the last
decade. This year, a Mesa school is guaranteed a region title
and playoff berth that comes with it. A Mesa school played in
six championship games in the 2000-2009 decade. No Mesa
school has reached a final thus far this decade. Skyline came
close reaching the semi last year, but it took a drop in conference
to do it.
There was debate over how the Chandler schools would
be placed in the new 6A. Most favored all of Chandler's
schools together and Brophy Prep to make five-team region.
Not Chandler's first choice and perhaps not Brophy's either,
but the three 6A Gilbert schools and three from the Tempe
district wanted a region devoid of Chandler. Thus the Premier
Region was born — Hamilton, Chandler, Basha, Perry and
Brophy. Every school in this newly-formed region has reached
the semfiinals or better the last five years except Perry.
THE BAD
Last year's experiment in using multiple factors to determine
conference placement upped the ante on schools that
have the wherewithal to battle for a state title every year. The
trend in Arizona football is an ever-widening divide between
the haves and have not-so-muches. Centennial and Chaparral
held their own, forced into D-I, as most knew they would
and could. Heck, Centennial won D-I least we forget.
Ditto Saguaro, Marcos de Niza, Williams Field, Queen
Creek, which moved up from D-III to D-II. Combined with Skyline,
Westview, Mesa High and O'Connor all dropping from D-
I to D-II, it turned out to be quite competitive for the top spot.
The exception was Saguaro, which lost two games — both to
D-I opponents and ended up an overwhelming the eventual
champ.
Since enrollment only now defines a school's placement,
Centennial and Chaparral have returned to 5A (D-II). That's
scary for most of the conference unless Queen Creek,
Williams Field or Notre Dame Prep really strike it rich. The
calamity-waiting-to-happen is 4A where the state's premier
destination school, Saguaro, resides. Is Paul Moro-coached
Marcos de Niza up to taking on Saguaro again for the title?
Not sure anyone else in 4A can or will come close. Here's
hoping member schools will find a way to return to 2015's
alignment model for football only and get obvious high-profile
programs placed where they belong.
It’s the right path to revisit if you look at Saguaro, with its
double-digit college prospects for a school of 1,300 students,
according to several top 100 prospect lists one can peruse.
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