ARIZONA & MEXICO

positive message to potential visitors, increase total visitors, encourage travel further north in the state
and prompt more BCC applications.
Figure 4
Figure Map of Current 4: Map Border of Zone Current showing Border 25 and 75 mile Zone limits Showing 25 to 75 Mile Border Zone
Source: Charney and Hoogasian, 2015
Source: Charney and Hoogasian, 2015
In a recent study for MAG, Mexican visitor expenditures were projected and potential economic impacts
of expanding the border zone in 2016 were estimated. 5 Projections were based on recent trends in
border crossings, by port and by mode. Calculation of potential economic benefits was based on the
following three scenarios:
1) Scenario 1 increases all crossers by 3 percent, a figure based on observed changes in crossings
following Arizona’s 1999 border expansion from 25 to 75 miles and New Mexico’s recent 2013
border expansion to 55 miles.
2) Scenario 2 increases only vehicle passenger crossers by 3 percent
3) Scenarios 3a, 3b, and 3c increase in the number of parties traveling to the north by 5 percent,
10 percent and 15 percent, respectively.
The estimated potential increase in expenditures with the border expansion is over $180 million (sum
of Scenario 1 and 3c), which has a potential impact of almost 2,200 additional jobs. When added to the
baseline projections and impacts, Mexican visitor expenditures are estimated to be over $3 billion and
provide almost 32,000 jobs.
There are uncertainties that affect the future of Mexican visitors and their expenditures. First is the
continued development of retailing on the Mexican side of the border. Walmart, the most commonly
visited store of Mexican visitors to Arizona, has built and continues to build stores on the Mexican side of
the border. The more developed the retail industry in Mexico becomes, the need to come to Arizona for
shopping will be diminished. The health of the Mexican economy and the exchange rate are important
determinants of the number of crossers and visitor expenditure levels. The Mexican economy is heavily
5
Charney, Alberta H. and Alan Hoogasian, Extending the Border Zone to the Entire State of Arizona: Estimated Expenditures
and Economic Impact Simulations, 2013-2016, a report to Maricopa Association of Governments, 2015,
https://www.azmag.gov/Documents/EDC_2015-05-11_Extending-the-Border-Zone-to-the-Entire-State-of-Arizona.pdf
APRIL 2016 • ARIZONA TOWN HALL • ARIZONA & MEXICO • 72