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Monte Carlo Analysis<br />

Importance Sampling Monte Carlo Examples<br />

VCO Circuit<br />

Netlist file: monte_carlo_vco_lc_tank.cir<br />

The sample circuit is configured for .SST analysis and transient simulation (much slower than<br />

.SST). The circuit is a simple LC-tank VCO oscillating at 1.8GHz (adapted from Craninckx &<br />

Steyaert, IEEE JSSC, May 1997). The oscillation frequency is obtained using the .SST analysis<br />

of Eldo RF (requires an Eldo RF licence).<br />

The phase noise at 1meg offset from the carrier is also extracted using the steady-state noise<br />

analysis of Eldo RF. Both the oscillation frequency and the phase noise are strongly non-<br />

Gaussian. The distributions are heavily skewed (left and right respectively). This means that<br />

Gaussian extrapolations using the estimated standard deviation with a few hundred runs are<br />

completely wrong.<br />

With this analog IP block, the ISMC method can easily capture extreme events. In contrast, the<br />

standard Monte Carlo method is useless as soon as the probabilities are in the range of 10 −3<br />

because the number of runs needed to obtain a decent confidence interval becomes prohibitively<br />

large.<br />

This example sets up four simultaneous measurements: two probabilities and two quantiles.<br />

With importance sampling, the total number of runs grows roughly linearly with the number of<br />

measurements, so simulations are shorter if only one probability or quantile is measured at a<br />

time. For this reason, when preparing and checking simulations, it is better to proceed one<br />

.EXTRACT command at a time.<br />

Even with moderately small probabilities and quantiles, the speedup of the ISMC method over<br />

the standard Monte Carlo method ranges from 200 to 26,000. This can be observed in the .mcm<br />

output file. Refer to “Probability and Quantiles using Importance Sampling Monte Carlo” on<br />

page 483 for more information.<br />

The results of the transient simulation are obtained using Monte Carlo extracts. First, the<br />

following statement sets up a Monte Carlo simulation using the ISMC method:<br />

.MC 500 DATAFLOW=1 SAMPLING=ISMC<br />

The 10 −4 -quantile for the oscillation frequency is close to 1.75Ghz (see below). The following<br />

statement extracts this quantile:<br />

.EXTRACT MC LABEL=quantile_fosc_left_1em4 MCBOUND(fosc_tran, 1e-4)<br />

The following statement extracts the probability that the oscillation frequency is lower than<br />

1.75GHz:<br />

.EXTRACT MC LABEL=proba_fosc_left_1_75 MCPROB(fosc_tran, LE, 1.75G)<br />

The following results are obtained for the probability estimator:<br />

Eldo® User's Manual, 15.3 531

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