eldo_user

Monte Carlo Analysis
Primary Statistics of Uncertainty Analysis
The upper endpoint defined as
, is given by the formula:
where the rank s satisfies
. The choice α =(1− p)/2 gives the
coverage interval defined by (1 − p)/2- and (1 − p)/2-quantiles. The symmetry is
defined with respect to the median value of the distribution.
• The shortest coverage interval is obtained from the CDF approximation by computing α
that:
is minimum. There is no analytical formula for the solution. This interval has the
property that, for unimodal distributions, it contains the mode which is the most
probable value of the output. Moreover, it is a more practical information for nonsymmetric
distributions.
==> Coverage Intervals:
Required Coverage Probabilities: p = 0.68, 0.90, 0.95, 0.99
Symmetric Cov. Inter. ... Cov. Int. (1-p)/2- and (1+p)/2-quantiles
Shortest Cov. Inter. ... Shortest Coverage Interval
Index Coverage Symmetric Cov. Inter. Shortest Cov. Inter. Name
of Meas Prob. [ Lower Upper ] [ Lower Upper ] of Meas
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 0.68 7.98633e-01 8.77034e-01 7.99932e-01 8.78198e-01 MAX
0.90 7.70098e-01 9.03279e-01 7.75404e-01 9.06395e-01
0.95 7.58738e-01 9.12106e-01 7.59759e-01 9.12617e-01
0.99 7.38646e-01 9.39293e-01 7.37492e-01 9.34906e-01
2 0.68 2.17662e+00 2.21513e+00 2.17724e+00 2.21546e+00 BW
0.90 2.16188e+00 2.22854e+00 2.16432e+00 2.23077e+00
0.95 2.15420e+00 2.23476e+00 2.15689e+00 2.23655e+00
0.99 2.14510e+00 2.25731e+00 2.14460e+00 2.24787e+00
3 0.68 -5.51864e-02 -5.36483e-02 -5.51178e-02 -5.36134e-02 IVDD
0.90 -5.56705e-02 -5.32053e-02 -5.56753e-02 -5.32140e-02
0.95 -5.59181e-02 -5.29856e-02 -5.59735e-02 -5.30732e-02
0.99 -5.62951e-02 -5.26181e-02 -5.62996e-02 -5.26464e-02
488
Eldo® User's Manual, 15.3