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Journal of the Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies Núm. 7 / 2016 CONCLUSIONS This study has evaluated a series of key aspects, namely capability, intention and opportunity in order to determine how likely is that French, Belgian, British and German returnees could perpetrate an attack in the homeland. The results were compared with the counter-terrorism measures that their respective countries are currently undertaking with the purpose of concluding whether or not they are the most suitable to address the returning of foreign fighters and suggest improvements if there is room for them. First of all, Belgian, British and German returnees seem to be more able to commit an independent attack than the French ones. The remnants of recruitment or extremist networks that in France are not linked whatsoever to foreign fighters may enable them in the other countries to engage dangerous salafists upon return. This task is not difficult for the returnees as they are often considered an ‘authority’ by other extremists. Once they have created a group, prepared the plot and acquired weaponry or explosives, they are more able to conduct an attack than a jihadist operating alone because of the organization and division of functions. Secondly, French returnees appear to have a greater intention to conduct an attack than Belgians, British and Germans do. France is the only country that does not have a de-radicalization and reintegration program for those fighters who return. Many of them have probably radicalized further and some may even suffer from post-traumatic stress disorder as a consequence of having fought with hardline groups such as Daesh. Others may not initially have in mind to plot an attack, but if the reason why they left for Syria was just because they felt alienated in France, their frustration or disaffection could turn them violent due to the inexistence of programs that could channel those feelings. Finally, Belgian and German returnees apparently have more possibilities to carry out an attack than French and British ones. Belgium is the country that monitors less returnees despite it has foiled one of the most serious plots. France, however, tracks most of the individuals who have not been arrested and the UK has a geographical location that somehow limits the number of routes fighters can use to come back, hence the authorities are able to control their return better than any of the other countries studied. It is also important to consider that more capability means less opportunity and vice versa, i.e. jihadists operating alone go unnoticed by the police easier than groups. Overall, France is likely to experience most of the independent plots, although they would probably be planned individually implying therefore more attacks but less devastating if accomplished. Belgium, Germany and, to a greater extent, the UK are likely to face a lesser number of plots that would probably be planned in group, thus entailing less attacks but more devastating if they were executed. In addition, the most likely scenarios or objectives that returnees could choose for their attacks are Jewish places and authors of satirical publications on Muhammad. 422 http://revista.ieee.es/index.php/ieee
Alberto Caballero Díez European foreign fighters in Syria and Iraq:... BIBLIOGRAPHY Secondary sources: ARMSTRONG, Taylor. Hezbollah as a Group Phenomenon: Differential Association Theory, Journal of Human Behavior in the Social Environment, 2013. BARRET, Richard. Foreign fighters in Syria, The Soufan Group, 2014. BOWEN, Innes. Medina in Birmingham, Najaf in Brent: Inside British Islam, 2014. BRANDON, James. Rise of Islamic State Reignites British Radicalization Threat, 2015. Available at: http://www.jamestown.org/programs/tm/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_ news%5D=44305&cHash=8ef4c4257d9a76b535cac8f3fbdf64c8#.VdwjCfntmko. BOUNDLESS. Bandura and observational learning, 2015. Available at: https://www. boundless.com/psychology/textbooks/boundless-psychology-textbook/learning-7/cognitive-approaches-to-learning-48/bandura-and-observational-learning-203-12738/. CSS ETH ZURICH. Foreign fighters: an overview of responses in eleven countries, 2014. STEINBERG, Guido W. German Jihad: On the Internationalization of Islamist Terrorism, 2013. HOLMAN, Timothy. The French Jihadist ‘Foreign Legion’ in Syria and Iraq, The James Town Foundation, 2015. Available at: http://www.jamestown.org/programs/tm/ single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=44202&cHash=fd9f774274deeafa057080d- 3043a0b72#.VdZ8Ufntmko. HEGGHAMMER, Thomas. Should I Stay or Should I Go? Explaining Variation in Western Jihadists’ Choice between Domestic and Foreign Fighting, American Political Science Review, 2013. HOLMER, Georgia. What to do when foreign fighters come home, Foreign Policy Magazine, 2015. HEINKE, Daniel. ICSR Insight: German foreign fighters in Syria and Iraq, International Centre for the Study of Radicalization, 2015. INTERNATIONAL BUSSINESS TIMES. How Foreign Fighters Joining ISIS Travel To The Islamic State Group’s ‘Caliphate’, 2015. Available at: http://www.ibtimes.com/ how-foreign-fighters-joining-isis-travel-islamic-state-groups-caliphate-1833812. JACOBSON, David. Surveying the Landscape of Integration: Muslim Immigrants in the United Kingdom and France. Democracy and Security Journal, 2014. http://revista.ieee.es/index.php/ieee 423
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