IPP Annual Report 2007 - Max-Planck-Institut für Plasmaphysik ...

Figure 2: Basis: a business as usual scenario, CO2-Bound: step by step
reduction of CO emission of 40 %, Solar-City: usage of photovoltaic and
2
solar collector systems.
Malacky
Malacky is a small town in Slovakia close to Bratislava,
which undergoes a tremendous economic growth. The IPP
develops an energy model especially for Malacky. The main
emphasise of the model will be to describe a population
which expects to increase the per capita income in the next
two decades considerably and a landscape in which major
industries are developed on the green field.
Ungerhausen
A possibility to solve the dilemma between the limited fossil
resources and a growing global energy demand is to build
up local supply concepts. Such regional concepts are mainly
based on the conversion of solar energy, which is theoretically
available in huge amounts. The main focus of this study
is to compare two different conversion concepts of using
solar energy to satisfy the electricity and heating demand of
a model region in consideration of the efficiencies and economical
boundaries.
One concept is to use agricultural land and goods as well as
local wood potentials to produce energy in combined heat
and power processes. Here the analysis of flows of agricultural
products is important, because the energy production
competes with the production of food, e.g. milk or meat. If
the agricultural structure allows for the planting of energy
crops, energy potentials have to be estimated in a realistic
manner and crop rotations have to be followed.
The electricity production by photovoltaics is therefore a more
physical way of converting the solar radiation. The concept
of producing solar hydrogen is a possibility to generate heat
from electricity as well. Comparing both conversion concepts
shows a lot about potentials, consequences and limitations of
the substitution of fossil energy sources. Using combined heat
and power processes is the most effective way to reduce CO 2
emissions. The most efficient way of using the solar energy
is the installation of photovoltaic modules, because biomass
actually converts the solar radiation with efficiency of 1 %.
Energy and System Studies
100
ESCOBALT
The ESCOBALT project was finished in 2008. Results and
findings of the project can be found on the internet. One of
the goals, to create an energy saving network in the Baltic
Sea, was certainly reached. The Baltic Sea region is unique
in its variety for different concepts to supply energy.
Methodologies
Stochastic programming
The German electricity system is expected to undergo major
transitions in the future. Drivers of the expected change are
the political decision to phase out nuclear energy and the
confession to fulfil the Kyoto protocol. But also uncertain
factors like weather conditions or price developments have
an influence on the decision; therefore it is important to perform
risk analyses. With the help of stochastic programming
techniques, such uncertainties can be trapped to a certain
point. A stochastic linear program of the German electricity
system was developed to generate a system causing the
minimal total costs in consideration of uncertainties. The
fuel prices, the CO 2 prices and the wind supply where regarded
as stochastic elements. Within this work the influence
of wind to the existing system was analysed and the
phase out of nuclear energy as well as CO 2 reduction scenarios
were studied.
EPS
The IPP helps the European Physical Society to establish a
working group on energy issues. The goal of this working
group is to develop proposals for a sound European energy
research in the field of physics. While the EPS is here certainly
in competition with various other actors, the EPS
offers the chance to develop balanced and independent
views.
Outlook
Energy system studies will certainly become even more
important in the future. The problem remains that talking
about the future requires a very special care and adequate
methodologies. Only work which is well aware of these
methodological deficiencies will be able to make sound and
helpful future outlooks.
Scientific Staff
Group: M. Bartelt (Uni Greifswald), M. Baumann (TU Graz),
F. Botzenhart (Uni Augsburg), S. Braun (Uni Greifswald),
G. Dressler (FH Stralsund), J. Düweke, T. Hamacher,
N. Heitmann, J. Herrmann, M. Krüger (FH Wismar), P. Kurz
(Uni Greifswald), P. Mühlich.