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Monday, March 21, 2016
The San Juan Daily Star
Jordan Spieth Continues to Be Favorite to Win 2016 Masters
By JOSH SENS
Jordan Spieth is a favorite to repeat. But
Rickie Fowler has attracted the most
action. And Tiger Woods still has a
puncher’s chance at nabbing his fifth green
jacket, though the odds seem slim that he’ll
even play.
Those and other nuggets make up the
latest Masters news from the gambling
frontline of Las Vegas in advance of the
most wagered-on golf tournament of the
year.
“We look at the stats, historical performance,
recent performance, all of that,”
says Jay Rood, vice president of race and
sports books for MGM Resorts. “But in
golf, as in Nascar and so many other individual
sports, popularity drives the betting
board.”
By that measure, if this were high
school, Spieth would have the hand of the
homecoming queen. This year’s defending
champ has been the Masters favorite since
last summer, when the line on him opened
at 7-to-1. His recent struggles have done
nothing to dampen the gambling public’s
enthusiasm for him. His odds are now
down to 5-to-1.
Next up on the list, at 6-to-1, is 2013
Masters champion Adam Scott, whose recent
back-to-back Tour wins have brought
him back into the conversation. He’s followed
by Rory McIlroy, who needs only the
Masters to complete the career Grand Slam.
If the numbers are right, there’s an 8-to-1
chance that the Northern Irishman will do
just that.
Then again, the numbers are rarely a
reflection of a golfer’s actual chance of winning.
As an example, Rood cites Justin Rose,
now on the blocks at 25-to-1. Never mind
the fact that Rose has competed in 47 majors,
and come away with just one major
title.
“He’s obviously a great player, and
there’s always that sense of potential,”
Rood says. “But his actual odds of winning
are probably more like 60 to 80-to-1.”
Popularity and potential. Both have influenced
the action on Rickie Fowler, who
has drawn more Masters wagers at MGM
than any other player in the Masters field.
Fowler is major-less, but his Augusta odds
(10-to-1) are the same as those for Bubba
Watson, who has won two of the last four
Masters.
Compare those seemingly skewed figures
to the odds for Phil Mickelson: 9-to-1
on a guy who has won three Masters in 23
appearances is a rare instance of the numbers
roughly lining up with what a player
has actually done.
Of course, the so-called “smart money”
often gravitates towards numerical longshots
whose odds appear statistically outof-whack.
Good luck sniffing out those sleepers.
Could it be Angel Cabrera at 100-to-1?
Or Louis Oosthuizen at 40-to-1? Rood says
he’s eyeballing Matt Kuchar (60-to-1).
“Throughout his career, he’s basically
been a license to print money,” Rood says,
“though maybe more for himself than for
people betting on him.”
Then there’s Tiger Woods, who, during
his early 2000s peak, warped the betting
board like no other golfer before or since.
On the mend from back surgery, Woods
is listed at 80-to-1, though the odds of him
being ready to compete seem even worse.
“Tiger has shown that he can be a factor
at Augusta even when he’s nowhere
near his best,” Rood says. “So if there’s
even a chance that he might play...well, put
it this way: we’ve been getting a ton of bets
on him.”
Simeone: Atlético Facing the World’s Best in Barcelona
By CHRIS MYSON
The Atleti boss reveals his excitement
after his side was drawn
against the La Liga leader in the
final eight of the Champions League.
Diego Simeone feels Atletico Madrid
will be up against the best team in the
world when the club takes on Barcelona
in the Champions League quarterfinals.
The two La Liga rivals will meet in
the last eight after Friday’s draw in Nyon
produced a repeat of the 2013-14 tie at
the same stage, which Atletico won 2-1
on aggregate.
Simeone, though, warned Barca has
improved substantially since that encounter,
but still spoke of his excitement
ahead of the two-legged clash.
“We have seen the draw and they are
an important rival, the best in the world,
surely,” he said. “I’m really excited about
it. What better incentive for us than to
play against the best team in the world?
Asked about the repeat of the tie
from two seasons ago, Simeone said:
“They are another team, a different team
and they have more options.
“They manage dead balls better, they
are better on the counter, they have had
the continuity of Neymar for the last two
years, the presence of [Luis] Suarez and a
better bench.”
Messi has 25 goals in 27 games v
Atlético, including 3 hat-tricks.
— Champions League (@ChampionsLeague)
Atletico director Clemente Villaverde
believes the tie is too close to call, with
his team having proven it can compete
with the best.
“Luck has decided that our opponents
be Barcelona and we will take it,”
he said. “You have to fight against Barca.
The tie is 50-50 because we have shown
how strong we are in the Liga. We should
do what we know.
“All opponents are hard and you
have to respect them all immensely. We
just have to do our thing.”
The teams hold the top two spots in
La Liga, with Barca clear at the summit.
Draw facts
• Wolfsburg and Real Madrid have
never previously met. Wolfsburg’s Julian
Draxler was in the Schalke team beaten
by Madrid in the 2013/14 round of 16.
• Bayern have won four of their six
matches against Benfica, drawing the
other two. The clubs have not played
each other since 1995.
• Barcelona have won their last six
fixtures against Atlético in all competitions,
Lionel Messi scoring in five of
them.
• Messi has registered 25 goals in 27
games against Atlético, including three
hat-tricks.
• Barcelona and Atlético came together
in the 2013/14 quarter-finals,
Atletico winning 1-0 at home after a 1-1
away draw.
• This is the third year running
Atlético have faced a Spanish side in the
quarter-finals – they lost 1-0 to Madrid
over two legs 12 months ago.
• Paris and Manchester City played
out a 0-0 draw at the City of Manchester
Stadium in the 2008/09 UEFA Cup group
stage, their only past encounter.