RENTAL DEAL!

Page 42 ISSUE ISSUE 135 Friday 147 Friday 18th 11th DECEMBER, MARCH, 2015 2016
DISMAL CHRISTMA$
GREETINGS
A
very different
Christmas.
Will the 2015
Christmas be a traditional
one in Trinidad
and Tobago since we
are now in a recession
as officially pronounced
by Governor
Jwala Rambaran?
Trinidad and Tobago
has received its Christmas
gift from the Governor
of the Central
Bank who chose to deliver
his goodies at the
fifth Monetary Policy
- From Governor Jwala Rambaran
Story by SUNSHINE FINANCE REPORTER
this 2015 recession,
which should not come
as a major surprise to
many of us? Well...
prolonged supply disruptions
in the energy
sector in 2015 continued
to result in sharp
shortfalls of natural
gas production which,
in turn, adversely affected
output of LNG
and petrochemicals
(methanol, ammonia,
urea and iron and
steel). Lower energy
prices also negatively
Forum co hosted by impacted the domestic does it reflect a structural
shift in global oil
Ninety-nine year-old FITZJAMES WILLIAMS is all smiles
the Downtown Owners energy sector. This has
and Merchants
HE’S
Association
in Port of Spain in job losses at some A speech by Spencer
already been reflected markets.
JUST
recently.
energy companies. The Dale, chief economist
The Governor awakened
decision by Arcelor of BP (and former chief
99
from his UNC
YEARS
Mittal to idle its steel economist of the Bank
OLD
slumber made the plant has not only affect
energy output but on what is driving oil
of England) sheds light
pronouncement that
Trinidad and Tobago also jobs.
prices. He argues that Finance Minister
is in a recession, apparently
surprising tor, which has kept the that oil is an exhaust-
The non-energy sec-
people tend to believe COLM IMBERT
- and doing fine
his new Minister of economy from veering ible resource whose likely to import threequarters
& of Angela its oil Ifill, and
Past Finance Colm Students Imbert of the off Mausica
seeking Teachers’ confir-
College growth prayers, trajectory ice for cream over and time, cool that demand Fareeda Chapman, India almost Carol 90 Reveil-
per
its sica already Alumni weak surprised price him is likely with to ough, rise Trevor
who is
mation held from a the birthday CSO the party past drinks, few a years, lovely birthday and supply cake and curves lac, for Eulalie cent. Lawrence, Of course, Barbaras this
for on this the College’s matter..... first as seems Warden
well as Fitzjames from the Williams Police momentum. who by them However, during their ly, “inelastic”), stay at the that Maureen oil port Warner. system will re-
to many have songs lost which its oil had are been steep sung (technical-
Davis, Allan assumes Clovis that and the Jack trans-
&
turned on whether 99 last the Governor
can held be the charged office for of Warden over the of the past members year of western the Alumni countries lodge and members over this present long period. includ-
Saturday the and economic Mausica events Teachers’ flows College. predominantly All There to were main also dependent several on of his oil
who
from his deliberate 1963 to 1977. indiscretion.
Affectionately called Fitzie bering, by even den is the still most very lucid to stabilise and knows the market. son and Hugh no great Smith. mental leap to
should have marvelled started how so-
their that former OPEC War-
is willing ing Leroy If Williams, it does, it Al demands Robin-
the The students, Governor he was pronounces.
among us. Among those tional who attended wisdom Bethel about Home in stabilising for the the Aged Mid-
in
a mentor financially to the nonchalant first names of all Much of them. of this conven-
Mr Williams assume is that staying US interest at the
many.
For “Since his the birthday, release the Mau-
The last the party time were the Felix oil is, Edinbor-
he argues, false. Arima.
of our previous Monetary
country saw economic
Policy Report performance figures
in early June 2015,
Trinidad and Tobago’s
economic growth
like these was in 2009,
a recession which lasted
all of one year. Prior
prospects remain to that, the country
subdued amid weak experienced a severe
business and consumer
recession for seven
confidence. Fol-
lowing a dismal first
half of 2015, (contrary
to what was reported
by the former
consecutive years from
1983 to 1989. “
On the basis of this
data it is clear that
recession as defined
administration) domestic
by the Central Bank
economic ac-
Governor has been
tivity was depressed
in the third quarter
of 2015. Similar weak
economic conditions
have prevailed so far
into the fourth quarter
of 2015. Four consecutive
quarters of
managed by previous
administrations and as
a country Trinidad and
Tobago has some experience
in transitioning
out of a recession.
An examination of the
solutions indicates that
decline in real GDP in the country got out
2015 means Trinidad of the last recession
and FELIX Tobago EDINBOROUGH is now by (1963/65) higher commodity first
officially President in of a the recession.”
Mausica prices, Students’ a feature Council of the
is seen here hugging ANGELA IFILL of the
Mausica Alumni and highs wishing and FITZIE lows of energy
What brought “Happy on Birthday” pricing.
What confronts us
today however is a totally
different set of
challenges in a new
global oil economy.
In an article (reprinted
in part) in the
financial times written
by Martin Wolf the
chief economics commentator
at the Financial
Times, London he
answers the following
important questions?
Why have oil prices
fallen? Is this a temporary
phenomenon or
A part of what is
shaking these assumptions
is the US shale
revolution. From virtually
nothing in 2010,
US shale oil production
has risen to around
4.5m barrels a day.
Most shale oil is, suggests
Mr Dale, profitable
at between $50
and $60 a barrel.
Moreover, the productivity
of shale oil
production (measured
as initial production
per rig) rose at over 30
per cent a year between
2007 and 2014. Above
all, the rapid growth
in shale oil production
was the decisive factor
in the collapse in
the price of crude last
year: US oil production
on its own increased
by almost twice the expansion
in demand.
By 2035, China is
Central Bank
Governor JWALA
RAMBARAN
dle East will shrink as
that of China and India
rises. The geopolitical
implications might be
profound.
A further implication
concerns the challenge
for OPEC in stabilising
prices. In its World
Energy Outlook 2015,
the International Energy
Agency forecasts a
price of $80 a barrel in
2020, as rising demand
absorbs what it sees
as a temporary excess
supply. A lower oil
price forecast is also
considered, with prices
staying close to $50 a
barrel this decade.
The implications are
very clear and perhaps
Governor Jwala may
have unknowingly begun
the discussion that
must occur about our
future choices....What
a Christmas from the
Governor?
JACK WARNER having a toast with FITZIE