Population, territory and sustainable development

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The ILPES analysis seeks to distinguish situations using a double-entry table and four segments
according to the level and growth of per capita GDP. The first stylized fact that arises is worrying and is
related precisely to the absence of territorial economic convergence referred to above. ILPES warns that
the persistent wealth or poverty of the territory and lack of mobility are hallmarks of the region (Ramírez,
Silva and Cuervo, 2009, p. 83). Other stylized facts that emerge from the ILPES analyses are (i) the halt
in manufacturing operations in MADs where this activity was concentrated, precisely because of the crisis
in the sector following the decline in State-led industrialization (expression preferred by José Antonio
Ocampo to “import-substitution industrialization”), the only exceptions being the MADs on the northern
Mexican border and others with a strong maquila presence; (ii) outstanding growth in mineral-rich MADs
that actively exploit their resources; (iii) substantial growth in MADs that specialize in services, notably
in metropolitan MADs, where services, but also industry, are prominent, hence the outlook is uncertain; 1
and (iv) chronic stagnation in MADs with a high proportion of rural dwellers and indigenous peoples,
where the main activity is traditional agriculture.
At the demographic level, in accordance with the database Spatial distribution and urbanization in
Latin America and the Caribbean (DEPUALC) of CELADE-Population Division of ECLAC, 33% of
MADs in the region registered low demographic growth during the period 1950-2000. They include the
following: Santiago del Estero (0.94%) in Argentina; Boyacá (0.84%) in Colombia; El Seibo (-0.17%) in
Dominican Republic; Bolívar (0.9%) in Ecuador; Departement du Sud (0.9%) and Departement du Sud-
Est (0.9%) in Haiti; Los Santos (0.6%) in Panama; Ñeembucú (0.8%) and Paraguarí (0.5%) in Paraguay;
Ayacucho (0.8%) and Apurímac (0.7%) in Peru; Potosí (0.5%) in Plurinational State of Bolivia; and La
Valleja (-0.2%) and Flores (0.1%) in Uruguay.
In general, all these MADs fall in the category of major administrative regions with chronic
stagnation in production (and which are therefore structurally and historically poor). Thus, a clearly
identifiable pattern in the link between economic growth and demographic growth at the regional level is
the layering of different types of stagnation. Obviously, this is not due to lower natural growth in these
MADs, since, given their higher poverty rates, they are usually among the regions with the highest
fertility levels and, therefore, with the highest natural increase in the population. Thus, the answer lies in
migration. The following section shows the close relationship between stagnation of production and
social lags suffered by regions and the factors that lead to out-migration of the population; this behaviour
is only to be expected given the lack of opportunity and precarious living conditions associated with life
in these areas.
Dynamic regions where living conditions are better usually have much lower than average natural
growth levels. This does not necessarily detract from their appeal as a migration destination —another
regular feature supported by data as well as by theory—, so that high growth in productivity is not always
linked to high demographic growth. Furthermore, some of these growth regions are among the
metropolitan MADs and migration trends in these centres are influenced by urban and residential factors
that make them less attractive to migrants, often to the benefit of neighbouring areas, as will be seen in a
subsequent chapter.
Be that as it may, the important linkage is between regional socioeconomic development and
migration, and this is examined in greater depth in the following section.
1
In the medium term, metropolitan MADs could systematically record strong economic growth assuming that the
economy is driven by the services sector.