Population, territory and sustainable development
The purpose of this document is to provide an overview of current trends, contexts and issues in the spheres of population, territory and sustainable development and examine their public policy implications. Three themes run through the report. The first two are laid out in the empirical chapters (III through X); the third is taken up in the closing chapter. Using the most recent data available (including censuses conducted in the 2010s), the first theme describes and tracks location and spatial mobility patterns for the population of Latin America, focusing on certain kinds of territory. The second explores the linkages between these patterns and sustainable development in different kinds of territory in Latin America and the Caribbean. The third offers considerations and policy proposals for fostering a consistent, synergistic relationship between population location and spatial mobility, on the one hand, and sustainable development, on the other, in the kinds of territory studied.
The purpose of this document is to provide an overview of current trends, contexts and issues in the spheres of population, territory and sustainable development and examine their public policy implications. Three themes run through the report. The first two are laid out in the empirical chapters (III through X); the third is taken up in the closing chapter. Using the most recent data available (including censuses conducted in the 2010s), the first theme describes and tracks location and spatial mobility patterns for the population of Latin America, focusing on certain kinds of territory. The second explores the linkages between these patterns and sustainable development in different kinds of territory in Latin America and the Caribbean. The third offers considerations and policy proposals for fostering a consistent, synergistic relationship between population location and spatial mobility, on the one hand, and sustainable development, on the other, in the kinds of territory studied.
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Rodríguez <strong>and</strong> Villa (1998) state that “in demographic terms, the increase in the share of national<br />
<strong>and</strong> urban population of metropolises seems only to have been possible by virtue of the high levels of<br />
positive migration seen in the cities that became metropolises.” Indeed, studies show that fertility rates<br />
first began to decline in the region’s large cities, which meant that natural population growth in these<br />
metropolises was slower than the national <strong>and</strong> urban rates. Accordingly, the high overall growth rates<br />
seen in the first three decades of the period of study can be attributed to the effects of migration (see<br />
table X.2). The authors comment that in the 1950s <strong>and</strong> 1960s, migration was a key driver of growth in<br />
cities like Bogota, Caracas <strong>and</strong> São Paulo (4%), Rio de Janeiro (2.6%), Buenos Aires <strong>and</strong> Mexico City<br />
(2%) <strong>and</strong> Santiago (1.7%). The migration effect eased in the 1970s <strong>and</strong> tapered further in the 1980s. The<br />
authors also point out that data for the 1990s show that net migration rates fell sharply in all metropolises.<br />
More recent studies (Rodríguez, 2004 <strong>and</strong> 2009; Guzmán <strong>and</strong> others, 2006) show that the most<br />
populous urban agglomerations (Mexico City <strong>and</strong> São Paulo) sustained net emigration between 1980 <strong>and</strong><br />
1990. This factor, coupled with the demographic shift under way, resulted in a sharp decline in the growth<br />
rate of that class of city. This trend of waning strength as a magnet for migration <strong>and</strong> net negative<br />
migration was observed exclusively in the largest cities (Mexico City, Río de Janeiro, São Paulo <strong>and</strong><br />
Santiago), which only partly validates the hypothesis that metropolises have lost their draw. However,<br />
data from the 2000 censuses confirm the hypothesis, showing that metropolises are more likely to lose<br />
population; indeed, the census data show that São Paulo, Mexico City <strong>and</strong> Santiago experienced net<br />
emigration. Thus, their loss of attractiveness would appear to be real, although not necessarily continuous.<br />
An analysis of the Spatial distribution <strong>and</strong> urbanization in Latin America <strong>and</strong> the Caribbean<br />
(DEPUALC) database points up considerable diversity among large cities, <strong>and</strong> given the number of urban<br />
centres that fall under this category, it is hard to give an overview of their demographic characteristics<br />
(Rodríguez <strong>and</strong> Villa, 1998). However, in 2000 there were 39 metropolitan agglomerations with a<br />
population of between 1 <strong>and</strong> 4 million, comprising different types of cities (see table X.5): (i) capital<br />
cities (Caracas, Havana, Guatemala City, Santo Domingo, Port-au-Prince, Asunción, Montevideo, La Paz,<br />
Quito, Panama City, San Salvador <strong>and</strong> San José); (ii) large cities in border areas or regions with<br />
historically small populations (Porto Alegre, Brasilia, Belém <strong>and</strong> Manaos in Brazil, <strong>and</strong> Ciudad Juárez<br />
<strong>and</strong> Tijuana in Mexico); <strong>and</strong> (iii) cities with strong economic growth (Curitiba, Guayaquil, Guadalajara,<br />
Monterrey, Puebla, Maracaibo, Porto Alegre, Recife, Salvador da Bahia <strong>and</strong> Fortaleza).<br />
Table X.5<br />
LATIN AMERICA: POPULATION AND GROWTH RATE OF CITIES WITH 1 MILLION TO 4<br />
MILLION INHABITANTS, BY NUMBER OF CITIES, 1950-2000<br />
Cities with 1 million-4 million<br />
inhabitants<br />
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000<br />
Number of cities 1 3 11 18 29 39<br />
Total population 1 223 899 3 764 344 15 741 378 29 525 217 48 789 940 73 268 132<br />
1950-1960 1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 1950-2000<br />
Growth rate 11.2% 14.3% 6.3% 5.0% 4.0% 8.2%<br />
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America <strong>and</strong> the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of Spatial distribution <strong>and</strong><br />
urbanization in Latin America <strong>and</strong> the Caribbean (DEPUALC) database, 2009.