Population, territory and sustainable development

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127 urbanized; the rural population base that is the source of migration to the cities is still large in relative terms, while the urban population base on the receiving end is not, so that the final effect on the destination point is magnified. The Central American countries are examples, with the exception of Nicaragua. In highly urbanized countries, however, the net rural-urban transfer tends to represent less than 30% of urban population growth. Thus, the contribution of rural-urban transfer to the expansion of the urban population can be expected to drop as the urbanization process advances. This trend is illustrated in table VIII.2: the three countries for which 2010 census data are available record a substantial drop in this factor as a driver of population growth, both male and female. Obviously, this negative statistical relationship between the level of urbanization and the weight of rural-urban transfer in urban population growth is not irreversible. If fertility rates continue to fall in urban areas to the extent that they produce null or negative natural growth rates, and if net ruralurban population transfer continues, its contribution to urban population growth could increase sharply and significantly. It bears repeating that the decreasing impact of rural-urban transfer on urban population growth in no way invalidates the fact that this transfer continues to be the demographic explanation of the increase in the urban percentage (urbanization). Looking back to chapter IV, the fact that population transfer from rural to urban areas is contributing less and less to urban population growth should not obscure the sustained and significant impact it is having on rural population growth in the region, which has been stable or even negative for decades. As with any average, this average stability masks opposing trends. In rural areas where the trend is towards depopulation, the shift is concerning because it usually involves a loss or under-use of resources (infrastructure, facilities, land) and can lead to food insecurity or even erosion of sovereignty in border areas. Rural-urban migration has an impact not only on population growth but also on population composition in both areas. As seen in Chapter IV, the dependency ratio of the rural population is higher because rural emigration is age-selective and mainly involves young working-age persons. The gender composition of the rural population is also affected by migration selectivity. Rural emigration in Latin America has generally been selective for females (although there are countries that follow a different pattern), so it is not unusual for the sex ratio to be higher in the rural areas of the region. The effects of rural-urban migration on the gender and age structure of rural and urban areas can be estimated more precisely using the procedures described and employed in chapter V. These procedures, however, can only be applied in a handful of countries whose censuses provide the necessary data for making direct estimates of rural-urban migration, that is, for building rural-urban migration matrices. These include Panama, whose 2010 census findings are presented in tables VIII.3, VIII.4 and VIII.5. Table VIII.3 highlights the marked disparity in the gender composition of urban and rural areas. 9 The sex ratio for urban areas in 2010 was around 95, versus as much as 111 for rural areas. Rural-urban migration in the 2005-2010 period widened the gap, reducing the ratio of males to females in the urban population by 0.25% and increasing it by 1.1% in rural areas. 9 These figures are from an internal migration matrix for the 2005-2010 period. Some cases are therefore excluded, such as children under the age of five, international migrants during the period and people who did not answer some of the relevant questions (habitual place of residence, previous place of residence, duration of residence). Even so, the matrix considers over 90% of the population covered by the census, so the indicators are representative of the demographic reality of the two areas.
128 Habitual residence Table VIII.3 PANAMA: ESTIMATED IMPACT OF RURAL-URBAN MIGRATION ON THE SEX RATIO IN RURAL AND URBAN AREAS, 2005-2010 Residence 5 years earlier Urban Rural Total Migration impact (absolute) Migration impact (percentage) Urban 0.95203 0.96376 0.95252 -0.00247 -0.2588031 Rural 1.12246 1.11230 1.11265 0.01236 1.11092905 Total 0.95498 1.10028 1.00542 Source: Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE) - Population Division of ECLAC, on the basis of special processing of 2010 census microdata. Table VIII.4 PANAMA: ESTIMATED IMPACT OF RURAL-URBAN MIGRATION ON CHILD POPULATION PERCENTAGE a IN RURAL AND URBAN AREAS, 2005-2010 Habitual residence Residence 5 years earlier Urban Rural Total Migration impact (absolute) Migration impact (percentage) Urban 0.20142 0.10748 0.19746 -0.00464 -2.352282 Rural 0.23772 0.27255 0.27135 0.01128 4.15776 Total 0.20211 0.26007 0.22318 Source: Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE) - Population Division of ECLAC, on the basis of special processing of 2010 census microdata. a Proportion of the population aged 5 to 14 in the population aged 5 and over in the matrix. Table VIII.5 PANAMA: ESTIMATED IMPACT OF RURAL-URBAN MIGRATION ON THE PROPORTION OF OLDER PERSONS a IN RURAL AND URBAN AREAS, 2005-2010 Habitual residence Residence 5 years earlier Urban Rural Total Migration impact (absolute) Migration impact (percentage) Urban 11.48 6.75 11.28 -0.10627 -0.941953 Rural 6.54 12.44 12.23 0.22661 1.852441 Total 11.39 12.01 11.61 Source: Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE) - Population Division of ECLAC, on the basis of special processing of 2010 census microdata. a Proportion of the population aged 60 and over in the population aged 5 and over in the matrix. With regard to the age structure, tables VIII.4 and VIII.5 also clearly show the differences between the two areas and how migration is widening them. As for the child population percentage, 10 the marked disparity (19.7% in urban areas and 27.1% rural ones) is due in part to higher fertility in rural areas. The matrix findings show, however, that rural-urban migration also contributes to the difference, reducing the share in urban areas by 2.3% and increasing it in rural areas by 4.15% (see table VIII.4). Turning now to the proportion of older persons, the higher fertility and mortality rates in rural areas should result in a younger population there than in urban areas. This is not the case, however: the proportion of older persons in the population aged five and older is 11.3% in urban areas and 12.3% in 10 Proportion of the population aged 5 to 14 in the population aged 5 and over in the matrix.
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Alicia Bárcena Executive Secretary
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4 Chapter VII Regional inequalities
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6 Table V.3 Latin America (9 countr
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8 Figure IV.10 Latin America (selec
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10 Map VII.5 Plurinational State of
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12 This document is therefore divid
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15 Chapter II CONCEPTS, DEFINITIONS
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17 which guarantee comparability. C
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19 social inclusion, with improveme
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21 The above description is clearly
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24 Table III.1 LATIN AMERICA AND TH
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26 Table III.3 LATIN AMERICA (19 CO
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28 While the rural population of La
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30 Box IV.1 (concluded) In addition
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32 As a result of the absolute and
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34 The sustained decline in the rur
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36 Country Table IV.2 LATIN AMERICA
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38 Country Table IV.5 LATIN AMERICA
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40 Box IV.3 THE AGEING OF THE RURAL
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42 Rodríguez and Meneses (2011) co
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44 The classification outlined in t
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46 An analysis of the results obtai
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48 Although the inhabitants of some
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50 Non-agricultural employment has
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52 C. PRODUCTION PATTERNS AND THE R
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54 Box IV.5 IMPACTS OF SOYBEAN PROD
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56 A recent study entitled Inserci
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58 Table IV.11 LATIN AMERICA: POOR
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60 Figure IV.7 POVERTY IN RURAL HOU
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62 Box IV.6 (concluded) These and o
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64 combine a number of factors of w
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66 Figure IV.10 LATIN AMERICA (SELE
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68 The data in figure IV.11 also sh
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70 Figure IV.12 LATIN AMERICA: AVER
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72 Box IV.8 ADOLESCENT FERTILITY IN
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74 Map V.1 SOUTH AMERICA: POPULATIO
Page 77 and 78: 76 Prime examples of this include t
Page 79 and 80: 78 Table V.2 LATIN AMERICA (9 COUNT
Page 81 and 82: 80 creation of tax-free zones, the
Page 83 and 84: 82 Box V.2 (concluded) State polici
Page 85 and 86: 84 In any case, only once the infor
Page 87 and 88: 86 It is not possible to draw direc
Page 89 and 90: 88 studies was conducted recently b
Page 91 and 92: 90 C. THE POLITICAL CONTEXT AND MOB
Page 94 and 95: 93 Chapter VII REGIONAL INEQUALITIE
Page 96 and 97: 95 Map VII.2 LATIN AMERICA AND THE
Page 98 and 99: 97 Some of these programmes were su
Page 100 and 101: 99 D. TERRITORIAL EQUITY, REGIONAL
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Page 106 and 107: 105 Figure VII.3 ECUADOR: POVERTY R
Page 108 and 109: 107 However, internal migration can
Page 110 and 111: 109 Table VII.5 LATIN AMERICA (SELE
Page 112 and 113: 111 Table VII.7 PERU (SIERRA DEPART
Page 114 and 115: 113 Lastly, in the case of Ecuador,
Page 116 and 117: 115 Chapter VIII SUSTAINED URBANIZA
Page 118 and 119: 117 This chapter presents the most
Page 120 and 121: 119 Busso, 2009; and ECLAC-UN-HABIT
Page 122 and 123: 121 estimate of the urban populatio
Page 124 and 125: 123 Figure VIII.2 LATIN AMERICA AND
Page 126 and 127: 125 First, the region’s economy i
Page 130 and 131: 129 rural areas. According to the s
Page 132 and 133: 131 the absence of a strategic visi
Page 134 and 135: 133 The need to design ad hoc inter
Page 136 and 137: 135 settlements with low-income pop
Page 138 and 139: 137 Figure VIII.4 LATIN AMERICA AND
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Page 143 and 144: 142 The rest of the system of citie
Page 145 and 146: 144 Table IX.1 LATIN AMERICA: NUMBE
Page 147 and 148: 146 First is the demographic scope
Page 149 and 150: 148 Basing the same series on towns
Page 151 and 152: 150 Table IX.2 LATIN AMERICA: PROSP
Page 153 and 154: 152 The data emerging from 2010 cen
Page 155 and 156: 154 City size Table IX.6 LATIN AMER
Page 157 and 158: 156 Figure IX.5 LATIN AMERICA (1,73
Page 159 and 160: 158 For unemployment, the picture i
Page 161 and 162: 160 rate differential among the dif
Page 163 and 164: 162 individuals valued cultural fac
Page 165 and 166: 164 that draw migrants, due precise
Page 167 and 168: 166 Table IX.10 LATIN AMERICA AND T
Page 170 and 171: 169 Chapter X TRENDS, MUTATIONS AND
Page 172 and 173: 171 Table X.2 LATIN AMERICA: EVOLUT
Page 174 and 175: 173 1. Demographic evolution of lar
Page 176 and 177: 175 As table X.4 shows, during the
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177 comparison. But the most convin
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179 in recent years, which are desc
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181 Map X.2 MEXICO: INTERCENSAL GRO
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183 irregular settlements known as
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185 The third argument is based on
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187 Map X.4 MEXICO CITY: EXTENDED M
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189 more general social inequalitie
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191 5. Concluding remarks: the grea
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194 In view of lower internal migra
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196 familiarity with surroundings a
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198 connections; (ii) identify the
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200 The report casts light on an is
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202 Box XI.3 PROTECTING THE ECOSYST
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204 In view of the above, the prima
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206 overlap of functions and alloca
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208 Many of the programmes develope
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210 A breakdown of net migration by
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212 Box XI.8 (concluded) Case studi
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215 Bibliography Abba, Artemio Pedr
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217 Cecchini, S. and A. Madariaga (
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219 (2010a), Time for equality: clo
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221 Hiebert, Daniel and David Ley (
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223 Pendall, R., R. Puentes and J.
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225 Rodríguez, J. and M. Villa (19
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Population, territory and sustainable development

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