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50thKaikoura05 -1- Kaikoura 2005 CHARACTERISATION OF NEW ...

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25km northeast of the volcano. Although not<br />

directly downwind of Mt Taranaki, this site holds<br />

>90 Holocene tephras, which have been sampled<br />

within the top 4 m of sediment. Ten new<br />

radiocarbon dates throughout the length of this core<br />

enable a very detailed sedimentation rate curve to<br />

be established and each individual tephra layer can<br />

be assigned an age based on its position within the<br />

core. This key site is correlated to syn-eruptive<br />

deposits in other locations, including those on the<br />

edifice, by physical and petrological characteristics<br />

as well as titanomagnetite mineral chemistry fingerprinting<br />

techniques. By using these tephras as age<br />

horizons, other proximal eruption deposits which<br />

are not in the distal record can also be assigned a<br />

relative age and added to the event database. The<br />

new database will be used to develop the first<br />

comprehensive probabilistic eruption forecast for<br />

ash eruptions from Mt Taranaki.<br />

A probabilistic temporal model is then required to<br />

handle the stochastic nature of the observed record,<br />

as well as the imprecision and inaccuracy inherent<br />

in the age data obtained via radiocarbon<br />

dating/sedimentation rates and that of the<br />

correlation uncertainties. Such models are usually<br />

assembled using techniques from renewal theory,<br />

(marked) point processes, or hidden (semi-)Markov<br />

models. Combining the resulting model with a<br />

quantitative assessment of the styles and properties<br />

of eruptions possible at Taranaki will allow the<br />

model parameters to be estimated, and the goodness<br />

of fit to the observed record assessed. A suitably<br />

well fitting model can then provide a probabilistic<br />

forecast of future eruptions at Taranaki.<br />

POSTER<br />

MASS TRANSFER IN SUBDUCTION ZONES:<br />

AN ELEMENTAL AND ISOTOPIC<br />

PERSPECTIVE<br />

Simon Turner & Rhiannon George<br />

GEMOC, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW,<br />

2109, Australia<br />

(sturner*els.mq.edu.au)<br />

Little doubt remains that subduction zone lavas<br />

contain elements recycled from the subducting slab.<br />

However, whether the key agents of this mass<br />

transfer are fluids, supercritical fluids or melts has<br />

major implications for the thermal structure of the<br />

mantle wedge. The evidence for contributions from<br />

both subducted sediment and altered oceanic crust<br />

are compelling and in most arcs their relative<br />

proportions vary inversely. Thus, so-called “fluidrich”<br />

lavas with high Ba/Th and Sr.Th ratios have<br />

low 87 Sr/ 86 Sr and 10 Be/ 9 Be etc and the converse is<br />

true for the so-called “sediment-rich”lavas with<br />

elevated La/Sm. A complicating factor is that many<br />

individual arcs tend to be dominated by one end-<br />

member. Nevertheless, experimental partition<br />

coefficient data are consistent with the differences<br />

between the fluid and sediment components being<br />

formed in the presence of different residual<br />

mineralogies. Sediment fluids appear to be poor in<br />

incompatible elements, relative to those derived<br />

from altered oceanic crust and cannot easily<br />

replicate the sediment end-member. We suggest<br />

that subducted sediments dehydrate at relatively<br />

shallow levels and that these fluids are not strongly<br />

sampled by arc lavas. Altered oceanic crust may<br />

dehydrate more extensively and to greater depths<br />

and may be buffered against melting. Model melts<br />

of dehydrated sediment residues provide a much<br />

better simulation of the inferred sediment endmember<br />

but may require ~800 C at ~ 2GPa,<br />

consistent with recent temperature-dependant<br />

viscosity models. These general inferences are<br />

strongly supported by 10 Be and U-series isotope<br />

data which suggest that the sediment (melt) endmember<br />

is added 100’s kyr to several Myr prior to<br />

eruption whereas addition of fluid components<br />

continues until a few 1000 yrs prior to eruption.<br />

Thus, the fluid and sediment end-member<br />

contributions are separate in composition, space<br />

and time. These data argue strongly against the<br />

involvement of any single supercritical fluid.<br />

ORAL<br />

DEVELOPMENTS IN THE EAST COAST<br />

BASIN, NORTH ISLAND, <strong>NEW</strong> ZEALAND.<br />

Chris Uruski, Brad Field, Rob Funnell,<br />

Chris Hollis, Andy Nicol & Guy Maslen<br />

Institute of Geological & Nuclear Sciences<br />

PO Box 30368<br />

Lower Hutt, New Zealand<br />

(c.uruski*gns.cri.nz)<br />

The East Coast Basin saw oil production in the late<br />

19 th century from wildcat wells near oil seeps. By<br />

the mid-20 th century, geology was being applied to<br />

oil exploration, but with little success. In the late<br />

20 th century seismic techniques were added to the<br />

exploration arsenal and several gas discoveries<br />

were made. At each stage it was recognised that<br />

exploration in this difficult but tantalising basin<br />

required more information than was available.<br />

Continuing work by exploration companies as well<br />

as by the Institute of Geological & Nuclear<br />

Sciences (GNS) has begun to reduce the risk of<br />

exploration. Source rocks have been identified and<br />

sophisticated thermal models show that petroleum<br />

is being generated and expelled from them as<br />

witnessed by the more than 300 oil and gas seeps<br />

onshore. Numerous reservoir facies have been<br />

recognised from outcrop studies and depositional<br />

models are being refined. All components of<br />

petroleum systems have been demonstrated to be<br />

50 th <strong>Kaikoura</strong>05 -91- <strong>Kaikoura</strong> <strong>2005</strong>

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