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50thKaikoura05 -1- Kaikoura 2005 CHARACTERISATION OF NEW ...

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model. The relative position of the mountain to the<br />

direction of the incoming seismic wave field,<br />

topographic modification and local resonance<br />

effects are likely to be important factors for<br />

triggering deep-seated failures within the mountain<br />

leading to catastrophic mountainside collapses and<br />

characteristically bowl-shaped source scars.<br />

Seismic waves interfering with local geological and<br />

topographical conditions will produce site-specific<br />

ground motions within the mountain edifice. The<br />

measurement of ground motion at different<br />

positions of the small-scale mountain surface will<br />

provide information on the effect of slope<br />

topography on strong seismic ground motion. The<br />

combination of the physical laboratory modelling<br />

data with a numerical analysis will then be used to<br />

evaluate dynamic internal stress fields developed,<br />

to infer the location of potential deep-seated failure<br />

surfaces, and to estimate possible volumes of<br />

seismically triggered mass movements. In addition<br />

to the laboratory modelling a seismic field<br />

experiment will provide an indication of the degree<br />

to which the small-scale model data can be<br />

extrapolated to comparable full-scale field<br />

situations. Detailed geotechnical field<br />

investigations of coseismic landslide sites within<br />

the Southern Alps of New Zealand (e.g. Acheron,<br />

Craigieburn rock avalanche) will provide<br />

information about specific rock fabrics and<br />

morphological parameters and will be used as a<br />

reference to improve and calibrate the physical<br />

laboratory and numerical modelling. This research<br />

project is a combination of physical laboratory and<br />

numerical modelling techniques with seismic field<br />

tests and geotechnical investigations to deepen the<br />

understanding of coseismic landslide initiation<br />

within bedrock mountain edifices. It can be seen as<br />

a first attempt to set up a deterministically-based<br />

methodology for evaluating mountain slopes<br />

susceptibility to failure during strong earthquakes<br />

and for predicting the impacts of future coseismic<br />

landslides.<br />

POSTER<br />

RECENT ALPINE FAULT EARTHQUAKES<br />

William B. Bull<br />

Geosciences Department, University of Arizona,<br />

1040 E 4th Street, Tucson, AZ, USA<br />

University of Canterbury, Natural Hazards<br />

Research Centre<br />

(Bill*ActiveTectonics.com)<br />

Tree-ring analyses and lichenometry precisely date<br />

a recent cluster of three Alpine fault earthquakes,<br />

and describe their seismic shaking intensities.<br />

Marked suppressions of annual growth rings of<br />

New Zealand cedar (Libocedrus bidwillii) at<br />

seismically sensitive Oroko Swamp and Alex Knob<br />

are attributed to prehistorical surface ruptures on<br />

the nearby Alpine fault. These forest disturbance<br />

events were synchronous (± 2 yr at 2�) with<br />

regional rockfall events dated by lichenometry<br />

using Rhizocarpon subgenus Rhizocarpon. Using<br />

the names of previous workers these are, ± 5 yr, the<br />

1715 Toaroha, 1615 Crane Creek, and 1580 A. D.<br />

Waitaha events.<br />

This cluster of magnitude Mw ~7 earthquakes<br />

occurred in a brief time span of only 135yr. The<br />

Waitaha event was the smallest, with a surface<br />

rupture limited to the central Alpine fault. Crane<br />

Creek was the largest event with a surface rupture<br />

that probably extended from the Nelson Lakes to<br />

the central Alpine fault. The Toaroha event<br />

consisted of two surface ruptures, one from northcentral<br />

and the other on the southern Alpine fault.<br />

This figure shows trends in seismic shaking based<br />

on spatial variations in the abundance of rock-fall<br />

blocks dating to times of the three most recent<br />

prehistoric Alpine fault earthquakes. An index<br />

value of 10 or more is about equivalent to a<br />

Mercalli seismic shaking intensity of 7 or more.<br />

ORAL<br />

50 th <strong>Kaikoura</strong>05 -11- <strong>Kaikoura</strong> <strong>2005</strong>

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