PREVENCIJA I SANIRANJE POSLJEDICA

dr Gordana orevi 1
Mr Smiljana Bijelovi 2
KOMPJUTERSKA SIMULACIJA U FUNKCIJI PREDVIANJA I
PRILAGOAVANJA KLIMATSKIM PROMENAMA
Izvod: Razliite ovekove aktivnosti, a posebno razliiti industrijski procesi, doveli su do
pojave globalnog zagrevanja i promena klime u svetu koje su esto išle u pravcu koji je esto
bio potpuno nepredvidiv. Svedoci smo da klimatske promene sve više utiu na ljude,
ekonomiju, prirodno okruženje, ali i na pojavu ekstremnih i/ili neekstremnih klimatskih i
vremenskih dogaaja. Brojne statistike analize govore u prilog tome da ekstremni dogaaji
poput velikih požara, poplava, erozija zemljišta, oluja i talasa tropskih vruina dodatno utiu
na ranjivost prirodnog okruženja i budue ekstremne dogaaje. Ljudsko društvo može i mora
da spozna klimatske promene, da se sa njima suoava, da im se prilagoava, da bude spremno
na odgovore na budue katastrofe. Kompjuterski sistemi za modeliranje i simulaciju istražuju
prirodno okruženje i prezentuju mogue zajednike i pojedinane uticaje prirodnih i
antropogenih faktora na klimu, mogue vremenske i klimatske dogaaje i mogue reakcije u
cilju rešavanja najveih izazova sa kojima se oveanstvo suoava.
Kljune rei: klimatske promene, ekstremni klimatski dogaaji, klimatski modeli,
kompjuterska simulacija
COMPUTER SIMULATION IN FUNCTION PREDICTIONS AND
ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
Abstract: Various human activities, especially the various industrial processes have led to the
emergence of global warming and climate change in the world that are often moving in a
direction that was often completely unpredictable. We are witnessing that climate change is
increasingly affecting the people, economy, natural environment, and the occurrence of
extreme and / or not extreme climate and weather events. Numerous statistical analysis show
that extreme events such as wildfires, floods, soil erosion, storms and tropical heat wave have
an impact on vulnerability of the natural environment and future extreme events. Human
society can and must be perceived climate change, to face them, to adapt, to be ready to
respond to future disasters. Computer systems for modeling and simulation exploring the
natural environment and show the possibility of joint and individual impacts of natural and
anthropogenic factors on the climate, possible weather and climate events and possible
responses to address the major challenges that humanity faces.
Keywords: climate change, extreme climate events, climate models, computer simulation
1 Alfa univerzitet, Beograd, e-mail: bgordana@yahoo.com
2 Evropski univerzitet Brko distrikt,e-mail : smiljana_89@hotmail.com