TECHNOLOGY AT WORK

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54 Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions February 2015 Figure 44. Estimated productivity increase shifting to fully autonomous trucks and drill rigs 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Autonomous Drill Rigs (Flander best in class) Autonomous Drill Rigs Autonomous Trucks Source: Citi Research, Sandvik, Flanders, University of British Columbia Mine Automation – Today and the Future The focus today is to build a fully autonomous mining system that can carry out tasks with minimal or no human control. Such development is naturally much more advanced, particularly upstream, as mining machines move around and often in complex and hazardous environments To date, most automation in the mine has been focused on components and subsystems and at a relatively small scale to the number of mines and processing plants. The focus so far has been on telematics (condition monitoring) and traditional process automation technologies applied in downstream operations. Telematics have been in place since 2007 across most major mines monitoring the performance of the equipment to avoid downtime. These “asset health” systems generate data onboard the equipment which is streamed wirelessly to evaluators based at the miners’ operations centres, who analyse and take steps to maximise the operational effectiveness of individual pieces of equipment. Downstream operations have traditionally been at the centre of mine automation with process automation in crushers, grinders, and smelters in place for the last two decades, and traditional process automation technologies with distributed control systems (DCS) controlling and optimizing the productivity at different plants, and the flexibility of programmable logic controllers (PLCs) also more recently being integrated to offer a more hybrid automation offering. The focus today is to build a fully autonomous mining system that can carry out tasks with minimal or no human control. Such development is naturally much more advanced, particularly upstream, as mining machines move around and are often in complex and hazardous environments. © 2015 Citigroup
February 2015 Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions 55 “Additive manufacturing”, or 3D printing, requires less cost, time and expertise than traditional manufacturing techniques 3D printing is able to create complex geometries and is likely to generate employment in niche manufacturing industries There will be some employment replaced by 3D printing, however it is unlikely to be of the same magnitude as other technologies mentioned in this report 3D Printing 3D printing, also known as "additive manufacturing", has been around since the 1980s. Relative to traditional manufacturing techniques such as injection moulding or CNC milling, 3D printing is slower, has poorer finish quality and is more expensive per item. However, 3D printing requires less cost, time, and expertise to create a small number of new items and it obviates the need for expensive retooling to manufacture new products. It hence has traditionally found value in prototyping new designs, and for some high-value, low-volume products. The recent significance of additive manufacturing is found in its democratisation and automation of manufacturing tasks. 3D printing is able to make direct use of designs produced using CAD (computer-aided design) software to manufacture even complex geometries, whereas other manufacturing techniques demand detailed expertise to specify tooling paths. With an increasingly networked society, appropriate designs are readily shared or purchased, allowing even non-experts to begin 3D printing. Hence 3D printing provides a connection from the digital world to a flexible means of physical manufacturing, reducing the need for manufacturing workers. 3D printing technologies have recently been extended to produce items in plastics, glass, paper, ceramics and even metal. Growing demand has led to dramatic reductions in the size and cost of 3D printing devices, yet furthering their broad adoption, with printers now available for as little as $500 and able to comfortably fit on a workbench. Clearly, 3D printing will play a role in the future of manufacturing. It is capable of producing products unachievable by any other means, including those that comprise mixtures of materials. For example, its ability to create complex geometries is being used by General Electric to print components for its next generation LEAP engine. As such, it is likely to generate employment in niche manufacturing industries. It will enable nimble just-in-time manufacturing that is able to respond quickly to new demand. These demands could be rapidly determined using big data analysis enabled by the IoT and an increasingly networked society. Crucially, 3D printing is well suited to personalisation: products will be increasingly tailored to a customer's preferences, both explicitly stated and inferred from their data. This personalisation comes to the fore in medical and dental applications, allowing components tailored to detailed body measurements. The industry is beginning to adopt 3D printing for commercial purposes: in particular, 3D printing is core to the manufacturing process of both Phona, manufacturer of hearing aids, and Align, manufacturer of Invisalign dental braces. Personalisation is also the driver behind the nascent industry that is starting to use 3D printing for clothing, such as Electroloom, who print using composites of synthetic and organic materials. For example, Continuum offers 3D printed bikinis, in nylon, bespoke to the body shape and measurements submitted by a customer through their website. The employment impact of these technologies, however, is unlikely to be of the same magnitude as others mentioned in this report. In the United States, for example, manufacturing has already been heavily automated, dropping from 30% of employment in 1950 to less than 6% today. The jobs that remain often involve a portfolio of skills, the management of many machines, for which one additional machine is unlikely to be able to substitute. Nor does the broad distribution of manufacturing devices, capable of personalisation, suggest a transformational change in employment. Similar developments were realised with the introduction of the home (2D) printer and sewing machine, which did not stop people from purchasing newspapers and clothes, respectively, from traditional suppliers. © 2015 Citigroup
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