TECHNOLOGY AT WORK

More documents

Recommendations

Info

34 Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions February 2015 Intelligent Robotics Industrial robots have substituted for manufacturing workers for the past three decades New advances in technology will allow robots to be used in new sectors and capabilities The continued technological development of robotic hardware has long had an impact on employment: over the past three decades, industrial robots have substituted for the majority of manufacturing workers. For example, a typical installation at BMW might use up to 1000 robots capable of handling up to 750kg, performing tasks impossible for humans. In recent years, robots are gaining yet further enhanced sensors and manipulators, allowing them to perform complex manual labour. This is evidenced by the sustained growth in robot sales, which increased in 2014 by 12% year-over-year, a growth rate that is expected to at least continue until 2017. 61 The significance of this for work is suggested by the high "robot densities" in technologically advanced economies: in South Korea, for example, there are now 437 industrial robots to every 10,000 human employees in manufacturing. 62 In addition to existing uses in manufacturing, advances in technological capabilities, along with declining costs, will make entirely new uses for robots possible. For example, robots are beginning to be used for a diverse range of professional service tasks, with sales continuing to grow for milking robots, robotic fencers, mobile barn cleaning robots, underwater robots and medical robots for assisted surgery. Defence applications (e.g. mine detection, reconnaissance and surveillance) are a particularly strong driver, with Visiongain estimating the UGV (unmanned ground vehicle) market at around $700 million, and The Economist estimating the UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle) market at around $3 billion. Decommissioning industrial facilities is another growth area for robotics, with an estimated market of £13.5 billion ($20.3bn) for robotic decommissioning at the UK nuclear facility Sellafield alone. A particularly important application for robotics development is in entertainment and leisure as toys and hobbies, e.g. LEGO® Mindstorms®, where novelty is valued and performance requirements may not be exacting. The market for entertainment and leisure robots was valued at around $900 million in 2013. Even more extraordinary growth is being achieved in the use of robots for personal and domestic purposes, with sales up 28% in 2013 versus 2012. 63 Such robots are finding use for vacuum and floor cleaning, lawn-mowing and in providing assistance to those with disabilities. It is clear that, with improved sensors, robots are capable of competing with human labour in a myriad of tasks. In this section, we examine the expanding scope of robotisation beyond manufacturing, including applications in the defence, healthcare and consumer services markets. The Effect on the US Defence Industry Jason Gursky US Aerospace & Defence Analyst The military provides a prime driver of recent developments in intelligent robotics. The use of robots by militaries across the world continues to increase as countries seek ways to remove soldiers from harm’s way and to garner better intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities. In fact, the United States, whose defence budget represents roughly half of the world’s total, saw its unmanned aircraft spending grow 14x between 2000 and 2014, driven by the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. 61 International Federation of Robotics (2014). 62 ibid 63 ibid © 2015 Citigroup
February 2015 Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions 35 Unmanned systems continue to garner government budget support worldwide Going forward, we expect unmanned systems to continue to garner government budget support worldwide, particularly in the US, which is seeking to create a smaller, more agile and more technologically advanced military, as a way to reduce the long-term structural cost of soldiers. Not only do unmanned systems address the cost side of the equation, but they can also be more effective given their size, speed and persistence. Funding isn’t linear due to post-war drawdowns, but the US military continues to focus on this growing technology. Figure 18. US Department of Defence systems funding (US$ millions) $m 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 CAGR Air 3776 4819 4468 4217 4419 4% Ground 13 47 44 54 66 50% Maritime 330 410 409 430 382 4% Total 4119 5274 4921 4700 4867 4% Source: US DoD Unmanned System Integrated Roadmap (FY2013-2038) Current market participants such as Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, General Dynamics, Textron, BAE, etc. are all likely to be the key providers of military robotics given their product portfolios and experience in developing new military systems. However, it is difficult to make an investment case based solely on robots given the propensity of governments, particularly the US, to insert ever higher levels of technology into force structures. Robots are a part of that story, but not a big enough part of it to make a structural difference for any one company. Rather, the broader trend of technology insertion matters most, with the US projecting to spend more on weapons vs. overhead going forward. Figure 19. US Department of Defence Base Budget (US$ billions) $b 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 CAGR Weapons 155 154 178 181 185 5% Ov erhead 341 342 358 362 366 2% Total 496 496 535 544 551 3% Source: US DoD Below, we outline the most common uses of unmanned systems and robots in the US military and the products that deliver those capabilities. We note that intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) is the most common use-case for unmanned systems. • Air – Represents > 90% of US spending, with current generation unmanned air platforms used for air strike (MQ-1B Predator, MQ-1C Gray Eagle, MQ-9 Reaper) and ISR (Puma, Wasp, Raven, Scan Eagle, RQ-5 Hunter, RQ-7 Shadow, RQ-4B Global Hawk). © 2015 Citigroup
Page 1 and 2: TECHNOLOGY AT WORK The Future of In
Page 3 and 4: February 2015 Citi GPS: Global Pers
Page 5 and 6: PRODUCTIVITY HAS INCREASED FASTER T
Page 33: February 2015 Citi GPS: Global Pers
Page 85 and 86:
February 2015 Citi GPS: Global Pers
Page 87 and 88:
Page 89 and 90:
Page 91 and 92:
Page 93 and 94:
Page 95 and 96:
Page 97 and 98:
Page 99 and 100:
Page 101 and 102:
Citi Global Perspectives & Solution
Page 103 and 104:
China & Emerging Markets China is A
Page 105 and 106:
Page 107 and 108:
show all

TECHNOLOGY AT WORK

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?