TECHNOLOGY AT WORK

34
Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions February 2015
Intelligent Robotics
Industrial robots have substituted for
manufacturing workers for the past three
decades
New advances in technology will allow
robots to be used in new sectors and
capabilities
The continued technological development of robotic hardware has long had an
impact on employment: over the past three decades, industrial robots have
substituted for the majority of manufacturing workers. For example, a typical
installation at BMW might use up to 1000 robots capable of handling up to 750kg,
performing tasks impossible for humans. In recent years, robots are gaining yet
further enhanced sensors and manipulators, allowing them to perform complex
manual labour. This is evidenced by the sustained growth in robot sales, which
increased in 2014 by 12% year-over-year, a growth rate that is expected to at least
continue until 2017. 61 The significance of this for work is suggested by the high
"robot densities" in technologically advanced economies: in South Korea, for
example, there are now 437 industrial robots to every 10,000 human employees in
manufacturing. 62
In addition to existing uses in manufacturing, advances in technological capabilities,
along with declining costs, will make entirely new uses for robots possible. For
example, robots are beginning to be used for a diverse range of professional
service tasks, with sales continuing to grow for milking robots, robotic fencers,
mobile barn cleaning robots, underwater robots and medical robots for assisted
surgery. Defence applications (e.g. mine detection, reconnaissance and
surveillance) are a particularly strong driver, with Visiongain estimating the UGV
(unmanned ground vehicle) market at around $700 million, and The Economist
estimating the UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle) market at around $3 billion.
Decommissioning industrial facilities is another growth area for robotics, with an
estimated market of £13.5 billion ($20.3bn) for robotic decommissioning at the UK
nuclear facility Sellafield alone. A particularly important application for robotics
development is in entertainment and leisure as toys and hobbies, e.g. LEGO®
Mindstorms®, where novelty is valued and performance requirements may not be
exacting. The market for entertainment and leisure robots was valued at around
$900 million in 2013. Even more extraordinary growth is being achieved in the use
of robots for personal and domestic purposes, with sales up 28% in 2013 versus
2012. 63 Such robots are finding use for vacuum and floor cleaning, lawn-mowing
and in providing assistance to those with disabilities. It is clear that, with improved
sensors, robots are capable of competing with human labour in a myriad of tasks.
In this section, we examine the expanding scope of robotisation beyond
manufacturing, including applications in the defence, healthcare and consumer
services markets.
The Effect on the US Defence Industry
Jason Gursky
US Aerospace & Defence Analyst
The military provides a prime driver of recent developments in intelligent robotics.
The use of robots by militaries across the world continues to increase as countries
seek ways to remove soldiers from harm’s way and to garner better intelligence,
surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities. In fact, the United States, whose
defence budget represents roughly half of the world’s total, saw its unmanned
aircraft spending grow 14x between 2000 and 2014, driven by the wars in
Afghanistan and Iraq.
61 International Federation of Robotics (2014).
62 ibid
63 ibid
© 2015 Citigroup