TECHNOLOGY AT WORK

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Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions February 2015 Carl Benedikt Frey is Co-Director for the Oxford Martin Programme on Technology and Employment and Oxford Martin Citi Fellow. He is a Doctor of Economic History at Lund University, an Economics Associate of Nuffield College, University of Oxford and Specialist Advisor to the Digital Skills Select Committee of the House of Lords. His research interests include the transition of industrial nations to digital economies and subsequent challenges for economic growth and employment. In particular, his work focuses on technology shocks and associated impacts on labour markets and urban development. His work has been covered by the BBC, CNN, The Economist, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, BusinessWeek, The New York Times, The Washington Post, Der Spiegel, Scientific American, TIME Magazine, Forbes, and many other outlets. Michael Osborne is Co-Director for the Oxford Martin Programme on Technology and Employment and Associate Professor in Machine Learning at the University of Oxford. He is an Official Fellow of Exeter College, University of Oxford and a Faculty Member of the Oxford-Man Institute for Quantitative Finance. He is an expert in the development of machine intelligence in sympathy with societal needs. His work on robust and scalable inference algorithms in machine learning has been successfully applied in diverse and challenging contexts, from aiding the detection of planets in distant solar systems to enabling self-driving cars to determine when their maps may have changed due to roadworks. He also has deep interests in the broader societal consequences of machine learning and robotics, and has analysed how intelligent algorithms might soon substitute for human workers. Robert Buckland Managing Director Chief Global Equity Strategist Natalia Mamaeva Director Head of European Engineering Research +44-20-7986-3947 robert.buckland@citi.com Graeme McDonald Director Japanese Machinery & Shipbuilding Analyst +81-3-6270-4732 graeme.mcdonald@citi.com Joe Seydl Senior Associate Global Economics Team +44-20-7986-4077 natalia.mamaeva@citi.com Ebrahim Rahbari Director Global Economics Team +44-20-7986-6522 ebrahim.rahbari@citi.com Robert Garlick Managing Director Global Equity Product Head Contributors James Ainley European Hotels & Leisure Analyst Andrew Coombs European Banks Analyst WIliam R Katz US Brokers & Asset Managers Analyst Atif Malik European Semiconductor Analyst Justin Morris European Med Tech & Services Analyst Jim Suva, CPA US IT Hardware & Supply Chain Analyst +1-212-816-2473 joseph.seydl@citi.com Klaus Bergelind European Machinery Analyst Jason Gursky US Aerospace & Defence Analyst Arthur Lai Asian Display and Touch Panel Analyst Mark May US Internet Analyst Walter H Pritchard, CFA US Software Analyst Philip Watkins European Autos Analyst +44-20-7986-3547 robert.j.garlick@citi.com Scott T Chronert US Small/Mid-Cap/ETF Strategist Keith Horowitz, CFA US Banks & Brokers Analyst Dr. Alex Leveringhaus Oxford Martin School Itay Michaeli US Autos & Auto Parts Analyst Ashwin Shirvaikar, CFA US Computer Services & IT Consulting Analyst Kenneth Wong, CFA US IT Hardware & Software Analyst
February 2015 Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions 3 TECHNOLOGY AT WORK The Future of Innovation and Employment It is a pleasure to introduce Technology at Work: The Future of Innovation and Employment. This report is the second in a long-term series of Citi GPS reports coproduced by Citi and the Oxford Martin School at the University of Oxford in order to explore some of the most pressing global challenges of the 21 st century. This report follows the launch report in the Citi Oxford Martin School collaboration that was entitled Future Opportunities, Future Shocks: Key Trends Shaping the Global Economy and Society which outlined not just the key trends that we see shaping global markets, society and technology but also the potential risks and shocks to the global system. In this new report, Oxford Martin School academics Dr. Carl Benedikt Frey and Associate Professor Michael Osborne examine a pressing subject increasingly in the headlines: the changing nature of innovation and work, and the associated implications for the future of employment and society more widely. We are also very pleased to say that this report marks the launch of the Oxford Martin Programme on Technology and Employment, a long-term programme of research at the University of Oxford supported by Citi that will focus on many of the areas covered in this report. The digital age is set to cause more upheaval than previous technological revolutions because change is happening faster than ever before and is fundamentally altering the way we live and work. Technology is now enabling not just the automation of repetitive tasks but also cognitive tasks involving subtle and non-routine judgment. Through robotics, big data, the digitisation of industries and the Internet of Things the nature of occupations and whole industries is changing and also the dynamics of economic growth. The economic benefits of recent technological developments are not being widely shared. Productivity has increased globally but real median wages have stagnated in many OECD countries leading to significant declines in labour’s share of GDP. Writing in partnership with Citi analysts, Carl Frey and Michael Osborne comprehensively assess the extent of automation and its effects on the labour market across industries and countries. Crucially, in addition to analysing the risks and opportunities of the digital era, the authors propose pathways and strategies that can help governments and societies adapt successfully. We hope that you enjoy this Citi GPS report. Going forward, further reports will share the results of the exciting collaboration between Citi and the Oxford Martin School. Andrew Pitt Global Head of Research Citi Ian Goldin Director of the Oxford Martin School Professor of Globalisation & Development University of Oxford © 2015 Citigroup
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