Attitudes

Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll Series
Background
While these Government Party support levels peak and trough from wave to wave, they
rarely vary from the statistical margin of error for polls of this nature, and would suggest to
us that there is a ceiling of support that the combined coalition parties can reach on election
day, but are unlikely to exceed.
While it is true that Fine Gael support in particular may receive a final, most probably
modest, lift in support in January when voters see the effects of the budget in their pay
cheques, it could be argued that the die is cast by this stage, and a return of the existing
Fine Gael/Labour administration is most unlikely.
Meanwhile, support for both Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin has also been reasonably consistent
over the last 18 months; settling in at around 19% to 20% apiece.
One of the imponderables thus far has been the likely size and profile of the
Independent/Other candidate bloc. We now have three waves of polling data which breaks
out the likely make up of the Independent/Other cohort, and this now allows us make more
in-depth observations as to which of the main parties the Independents are likely to grant
their support to in the post-Election scenario.
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