Commercial Gas Management Solutions - GL Group

Energy Solutions
Commercial Gas Management Solutions
Germanischer Lloyd – Service/Product Description

Commercial Gas Management
Solutions
2
Germanischer Lloyd – Service/Product Description
Service Title: Energy Solutions
Lead Practice: GL - Energy Solutions
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Pages 4 - 12
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Pages 13 - 15
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Contents
Service Description and Values Generated
Detailed Method Statement
The detailed method statements explain how the
work is conducted, which inputs are required and
which outputs and results can be expected.
System Requirements Study (SRS)
Third Party Access Solutions for Underground Gas
Storage Operators and LNG Facilities
Forecaster Implementation Services
Application Support & Hosting Services
Case Studies and Examples
Access Manager for Star Energy (Underground Gas
Storage)
Access Manager Implementation for Grain LNG
E.ON Földgáz Trade (EFT) - Imbalance Penalty
Reduction Through Accurate Demand Forecasting

Service Description
and Values Generated:
Liberalisation of energy markets around the world is having a
profound impact upon the way in which energy suppliers and utilities
operate. Historically it was not uncommon for a single company, often
state owned, to own and operate the entire gas chain from well to
meter. The introduction of competition is increasing the number of
market players and more often than not, results in the unbundling of
production, transmission, distribution, storage and supply. Operating
in this new competitive environment requires fundamental changes to
business processes and the software solutions that support them.
Germanischer Lloyd (GL) is a world leading provider of commercial
gas management and Third Party Access solutions and services:
� System Requirement Studies
An essential first step for any company looking to procure
(or develop) a software solution is to clearly and
unambiguously define their requirements. GL have a team
of experienced consultants and a proven methodology
for developing systems requirements specifications that
can be used as the basis for an Invitation To Tender (ITT).
� Third Party Access and Hydrocarbon Allocation
Solutions for Underground Gas Storage Operators
and LNG Facilities
Access Manager provides a suite of configurable software
modules to support the commercial operation,
hydrocarbon allocation and Third Party Access for
Underground Gas Storage Operators and LNG facilities.
� Gas Demand Forecasting for Transmission and
Distribution System Operators, and Energy
Suppliers/Retailers
Forecaster is an advanced forecasting solution that
delivers future short term daily and hourly energy
demands that are essential to gas transmission and
distribution system operators and energy suppliers.
Forecaster gives you manageable forecasts that maximize
accuracy while minimizing effort.
SERVICE DESCRIPTION
� Application Support and Hosting Service
GL provide a comprehensive application support and
hosting operation, ready to meet the specific operational
requirements of our customers in the energy industry. A
24/7 application support operation ensures that our
customers have access around the clock to our team of
expert software engineers & consultants, ensuring that
their business critical operations can continue to operate
no matter the situation.
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DETAILED METHOD STATEMENT
a. System Requirements Study (SRS)
An essential first step before procuring (or developing) any software
system is to clearly and unambiguously define the system
requirements in a System Requirements Specification (SRS). This
document can then be used as a basis for an Invitation To Tender (ITT)
and/or used to evaluate the suitability of alternate solutions.
The System Requirements Specification would typically include the
following sections:
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1) Problem Definition/Business Drivers
This section will clearly define the business drivers and
purpose for implementing the system. It will establish a
common vision for the system and ensure that the
requirements are business driven.
2) Stakeholders
This section will identify the users of the system and any
parties (internal or external) that could be materially
affected by its implementation.
3) System Boundary
The system boundary will define the border between the
new system and any existing corporate systems. All data
inputs and outputs will be defined.
4) Functional Requirements
This will describe the functional requirements of the
system - how the system must behave - and will
constitute the bulk of the report. It will be organized by
module (for example nominations, contracts or
allocations). Each of the features or behaviours will be
classified as mandatory, desirable or “nice to have”. This
last step is important for two reasons: firstly, it enables
the requirements to be weighted when evaluating the
suitability of off the shelf solutions, and secondly, it
enables resources to be focused on essential features.
For example, the functional requirements for a third party
access system will typically cover the following functional
areas:
- Nominations
- Allocations
- Inventory
- Contracts
- Availability (including Site Operations Interface,
Outages and Operations Support)
5) Non-functional Requirements
This section will identify the non-functional requirements
for a system, such as:
- Hardware (Client and Server)
- Network infrastructure
- Backup and Recovery
- User Interface
- Reliability
- Availability
- Performance
- Support
6) Design Constraints
This section will identify restrictions on the design of the
system, or the methodology by which it will be developed
or implemented. Likely issues for consideration will be
the existing IT infrastructure and ongoing support
considerations.

Implementation
GL use a tried and tested four-phase approach to conducting System
Requirements studies:
DETAILED METHOD STATEMENT
Phase 1 - Data Gathering
Our consultants carry out a number of structured workshops (typically
over a period of two weeks) with representatives from the customer’s
business to capture the system requirements. Feedback sessions are
incorporated throughout the schedule to ensure that the consultants
have correctly captured and understood the requirements before
drafting the System Requirements Specification (SRS).
Phase 2 - Compile System Requirements Specification.
It typically takes two to three weeks for the consultants to complete
their analysis of the information gathered in the workshops and
produce the first draft of the SRS (Ver 0.1) for the customer to review.
Phase 3 – Review Draft
Two to three weeks is typically sufficient time for the customer to carry
out a review of the draft SRS (Ver 01.) and for the Consultants to
incorporate comments and issue SRS Ver 0.2.
Phase 4 – Final Review
One to two weeks is then required for a further review cycle before
the final version, SRS Ver 1.0 is issued for sign-off by the customer.
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DETAILED METHOD STATEMENT
b. Third Party Access and Hydrocarbon Allocation Solutions
for Underground Gas Storage Operators and LNG Facilities
Access Manager is a Web-enabled system that provides a robust and
reliable platform that meets the demands of today’s liberalised energy
markets. Access Manager was developed specifically for the
commercial environment of Third Party Access.
Access Manager was first implemented in 2002 for the five LNG peak
shaving sites in the UK. GL has continued investment and
development in the system so that it has become a core solution. In
Access Manager, we have the only proven end-to-end (ship to send
out) terminal system in the UK.
The experience of operating in the UK’s energy market has enabled GL
to develop a system that can be configured and customised to meet
the constantly evolving market requirements. Access Manager is
purposely designed to fit around the business, not the business
around Access Manager.
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Key Benefits of Access Manager:
� Reduction in Operational Expenditure - Automation of
key processes minimises manpower requirements. One
customer was able to save in excess of £400k p.a. by
configuring the system to electronically send alerts by
phone removing the need for a 24/7 Commercial
Operations team
� A proven solution that reduces risk and delivery timescales
compared with a bespoke development
� Facilitates the optimisation of operations through the
provision of accurate and timely information to key
stake-holders (including commercial and system operations,
customers, shareholders etc.)
� Highly flexible – Modules can be configured or tailored
to meet specific customer requirements
� Security and audit features ensure confidentiality of the
user parties’ data and demonstrates regulatory
compliance
� Low cost of ownership achieved through flexible user
configurability and support, for example simple changes
(such as screen appearance) can be made by system
administrators
� Demonstrates regulatory compliance and supports
Secondary Trading and UIOLI rules (Use It Or Lose It)
� The modular nature of the system reduces the cost and
risk of extending the system to other users and future
project phases
� Business process automation enables internal IT staff to
maintain the system without detailed knowledge of
stakeholder processes
� Remote, secure web based access to the system
� Multi language support enables the system to be
deployed World wide

Implementation
GL follows a tried and tested process for implementing its Access
Manager solution:
Project Phases:
Stage 0 - Pre-project Planning
The project begins with an internal kick-off meeting to mobilise the
project team, assign roles and responsibilities, and discuss the overall
project objectives. During this stage the GL project manager will
develop the project plan including a detailed quality plan, for approval
by the customer
Stage 1 - Gap Analysis (Analysis & Design)
During this phase GL will analyse the gap between the base Access
Manager solution and the customer requirements. A solution will be
designed and documented in the Functional Design Specification
(FDS).
Stage 2 - Configuration and Customisation
This phase incorporates the key activities of making configuration and
customisation changes to Access Manager in order to meet the
Functional Design Specification.
Stage 3 - FAT Testing
GL carry out comprehensive factory acceptance testing at it’s premises
which includes Unit, Module and end to end System Integration
testing.
Stage 4 - Deploy and SAT
Following a successful Factory Acceptance Test the system is installed
at the client’s site and Site Acceptance Testing is carried out.
Stage 5 - Training
End users and administrators are trained in how to use and
administrate the system prior to carrying out User Acceptance Testing.
Stage 6 - User Acceptance Testing
The system is comprehensively tested by the customer to ensure that
it delivers the functionality as defined in the Functional Design
Specification.
DETAILED METHOD STATEMENT
Post Implementation Support and Services
GL provides comprehensive 2nd line technical support for our clients.
This includes call logging, tracking and management, through to
problem diagnosis and problem resolution, including escalation
management.
A number of options with defined service levels are available ranging
from working hours support through to 24/7 including application
hosting.
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DETAILED METHOD STATEMENT
c. Forecaster Implementation Services
Forecaster Overview
Gas transmission and distribution companies, shippers and traders
are all interested in forecasting gas demand. The extent of this
depends largely on the type of market they are operating in. The key
drivers behind gas forecasting will be a subset of the following:
� The need to reduce imbalance penalties imposed by the
regulator/transporter
� The need to maintain security of supply
� The need to manage gas storage efficiently
� The need to book sufficient capacity in the future
� The need to operate a gas network efficiently and safely
� The need to optimise CAPEX by pinpointing capacity
constraints
� The need to make informed buying/selling decisions in
times of price volatility
The GL Forecaster product is aimed at addressing all these business
drivers by providing the flexibility to operate within different parts of
the industry. Forecaster can drive operations by providing accurate
short term predictions (within the day and day ahead) at each
metered demand point, or at any aggregation of points. Moreover,
the granularity, frequency and forecast horizon are all configurable
within the system. The product can also be configured to predict
long term demand patterns, and is therefore a powerful tool to feed
into planning activities.
Built into the product are a number of algorithms that can be used to
generate forecasts and the choice of algorithm depends on the nature
of the problem being solved. Forecaster currently supports the
following methodologies:
� Neural networks
� Multiple Linear Regression
� Multiple Non-Linear Regression
� ARIMA (Auto-Regressive Moving Average)
� Adaptive Combination
� Bayesian
� Profiling and utility models
Forecaster has built in capability to automate the key processes
required to capture input data, train the models, generate forecasts
and output the results.
Forecaster - Key Benefits
� The most important benefit is improved accuracy of
demand forecasts as these feed into many other business
processes. Some of our clients have achieved reductions
in Mean Absolute Percentage Error by as much as 50%
compared with existing forecasting methods with typical
improvements of between 5-35%. This very much
depends on client’s existing modelling methods, data
quality, history and availability. For example one client
reduced their average portfolio error from 15% to 7%,
another from 5.5% to

Forecaster Implementation Service Overview
GL has world-class gas demand forecasting expertise with specific
knowledge of how forecasting models are configured within
Forecaster.
An extensive range of consultancy services are available to guide the
customer through a successful Forecaster implementation. These
include:
� Detailed requirements capture to understand and
document the clients needs
� Initial Study – to demonstrate our forecasting capability
and the level of accuracy that can be achieved using client
data
� Forecaster Trial – to set up a trial version of the product to
allow the client to use for a defined period of time
� Forecaster Implementation – client data analysis and
model configuration through to installation, integration,
training and testing
� Continuous Improvement – application and configuration
support through the GL dedicated support function.
Ongoing modelling consultancy can also be provided to
monitor forecasting accuracy and adapt models to
changing market conditions.
DETAILED METHOD STATEMENT
Requirements Capture
Once the client has established their business case for purchasing a
forecasting solution, GL can provide consultancy support to elicit the
detailed business and IT requirements of the customer in respect of
the system. GL have a tried and tested methodology for capturing
and documenting these requirements.
Initial Study
Business
Case
Using GL forecasting expertise, we suggest to the client a two to three
week consulting study that analyses representative data for a few
demand points, configures them into Forecaster, develops and assigns
models, and reports on the likely accuracy that could be achieved
highlighting any data issues.
To support this activity, the client provides GL with input data for up
to 10 demand points the client has historically forecast. The client
may wish to provide a range of demand types representative of their
portfolio to test our capability. Input data would typically include
historical demand and other information considered to be a driver of
the forecast, such as weather data.
We will analyse the input data for each demand point, and depending
on the demand pattern, data quality etc, configure and train the
Forecaster models on an agreed test period and generate forecasts
over the remaining period. The results of this study are presented to
the client and compared with equivalent accuracy figures.
The evaluation delivers a summary report providing an outline of
accuracy, data issues and recommendations. Fees are based on
estimated cost of services.
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DETAILED METHOD STATEMENT
Forecaster Trial
Following on from an initial study where we have demonstrated the
potential accuracy that Forecaster can achieve, the client may wish to
trial the Forecaster product to test its robustness as an operational
tool to ensure it meets their functional requirements and fits in with
their IT infrastructure.
Typically, as part of an evaluation or pilot, GL would set up a trial
database with a small number of demand points configured to run
operationally. The client may wish to create an automated data
loading mechanism to feed the system using ‘as-live’ data, or they
could set up a manual procedure to carry out the required activities
each day.
GL would help the client set up the database, install the system (with
a temporary licence) and deliver an introductory training course
enabling the client to make full use of the product during the
evaluation period.
The Forecaster trial will assist the client’s understanding of what can
be achieved and helps refine their requirements so that we can
provide a detailed proposal for subsequent implementation. This has
the benefit of ensuring that the solution meets the client’s
expectations.
Implementation
GL employs a tried and tested method for implementing Forecaster
according to the following basic stages:
1) Analysis and Specification
Involves workshops with the client to understand how
Forecaster needs to be configured, what data is available,
what is to forecast etc. The output from this is a
Configuration Specification which the client signs off.
2) Initial Configuration
Following approval of the Configuration Specification, we
create a Forecaster database configured for the client.
This includes forecast horizons, demand points, weather
and other input variables.
3) Data Migration
Demand and other input data (e.g. temperature) is
migrated into the Forecaster database either by the client
or GL. This information is provided by the client. We can
optionally carry out analysis of the data quality and clean
up the data as necessary.
4) Modelling (optional)
As an optional phase, GL will carry out analysis of the
migrated data and investigate the best type of model to
apply to each demand point. If the client has already
carried out this analysis, or if the client has specific models
they wish to implement directly in Forecaster, these will be
configured in the next stage.
5) Model Configuration
Based on models identified in stage 4, or models the
client wishes to be implemented, GL will carry out the
necessary model configuration and assign them to the
demand points according to their classification. At this
stage the Scheduler component is also set-up to
automate all the key tasks.
6) Factory Acceptance Testing
The fully configured Forecaster system is thoroughly
tested at our office to ensure it fully meets the needs of
the client. This includes an element of operational
testing, where Forecaster runs on ‘as-live’ information.
7) Installation
We carry out on-site installation of Forecaster and the
database. At this stage, the client is guided through this
process, with reference to the installation guide, to ensure
this knowledge is transferred.
8) Site Acceptance Testing
Once Forecaster has been installed on-site, GL engineers
run a sub-set of the critical Factory Acceptance Tests to
ensure the system runs as expected in the target
environment.
9) Training
Before the system is handed over to the client, we carry
out an introductory and intermediate training course
aimed at key users of the system and testers the client
may be using. A System Administration course which
covers installation, system architecture and
troubleshooting for the Forecaster system is also
provided.
10) User Acceptance Testing Support
Following successful SAT and client training, the system is
handed over to the client for them to carry out their
testing. Typically, the client will have pre-defined the tests
they wish to carry out based on their user requirements.
Following this phase, the client signs off the system as
ready for go-live. GL would provide support as part of
the implementation project during this period to address
any issues that may arise.

Post Implementation Support and Services
GL provides comprehensive technical support for Forecaster clients.
This includes call logging, tracking and management, through to
problem diagnosis and problem resolution, including escalation
management.
A number of options with defined service levels are available ranging
from working hours support through to 24/7.
In addition to application support, GL can provide additional
consultancy to monitor the on-going accuracy of the client’s
forecasting models and provide recommendations for potential
improvements. This situation may be beneficial to the client if they do
not have the resources in-house to carry out this activity themselves.
Additional training can also be provided, including an Advanced
Training course which covers model configuration and is aimed at
users who have used the system for a while and would like to take the
models to the next level.
There are a wide range of forecasting methods available in Forecaster
which covers most client needs. However, there may be some
situations where the client would like to investigate new techniques
such as neural fuzzy, support vector machines, Artificial Logic
Networks etc. GL have a long history of carrying out research and
development activities in the area of gas demand forecasting and
have provided this level of service to clients in the past.
DETAILED METHOD STATEMENT
d. Application Support & Hosting Services
GL recognises the importance of an effective application support and
hosting service and the business benefits of a responsive, high quality
service to support key business solutions in the energy industry. GL
has an excellent record for quality of service and have a commitment
to provide a level of responsiveness driven by customer defined service
levels.
GL have been providing support services to the UK energy industry
for over 20 years, ensuring that the systems operating the UK gas
networks continue to function around the clock.
Call handling software is used to log, record and monitor calls against
customer specific service levels.
Support Services
� Location and Availability
With GL offices around the world, 1st line support
services can be established in locations closest to the
customer, operating in their time zone and their
language. Depending on the nature of the customer’s
business and the business criticality of the operations, GL
can offer expert support coverage right through to 24
hours a day, 7 days a week. This gives the customer
access to expert software engineers and consultants, who
can promptly resolve and get to the root cause of any
application issue.
� Call Management
Each call received by the helpdesk teams is recorded in a
call logging system and given a call reference number.
The caller is asked to provide the following information:
- User identification and contact details
- Description of the problem
- Priority of call
GL will acknowledge the acceptance of the call within the
agreed SLA timings and contact the customer for further
information, if required including:
- Requests for screen shots
- Error message texts
- Confirmation of local IS problems (e.g. network or
desktop failure; failed web access)
- Information on actions taken to date
- Information on steps required to reproduce the failure
or circumstances under which failure occurred
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DETAILED METHOD STATEMENT
Initial problem diagnosis will be undertaken on the
production system. In order to achieve the level of
support required as effectively as possible, the Support
Team often have controlled access to the production
system so that the particular problem can be monitored
and assessed.
Further investigation, when necessary, takes place on
internal development systems. Additional information
and diagnostic data is often made available by the user on
request to help with the resolution of the problem.
In some cases, diagnosis may involve duplicating the
problem to understand the issues. It may also be
necessary to investigate the data and functionality of the
system. The customer will often provide assistance and
access in this regard.
� Problem Resolution
Once the problem has been identified and fixed, the issue
is closed by the support team in agreement with the user.
When the correction of the problem entails the
implementation of a fix, the call will be closed once a solution
or an acceptable workaround has been provided.
� Reporting and Performance Review
GL provide customers with monthly performance reports,
keeping the customer informed about the number of calls
being taken, details of the calls, and the support teams
performance against the agreed service levels.
Face to face meetings are also held on a regular basis to
ensure that the service being provided is meeting
requirements and achieving the level of system availability
that the customer needs to keep their business operating
at the optimum level.
� Hosting Capabilities
GL offer full end-to-end service delivery, support and
hosting capabilities. With our expert knowledge of
hardware requirements best suited to meet the demands
of our applications, we work with our customer to design
a hardware solution that meets their requirements with
regards to performance, disaster recovery and cost.
System availability right through to 99.99% availability
can be provided, removing the need for companies to
provide their own infrastructure and hardware support.
Benefits
Customers gain the following benefits by adding application support
and hosting services to a GL software solution:
� Assurance that problems in operating important and
business critical software systems are resolved within a
defined service level
� Assurance that your business processes will be supported
to reduce disruption from problems
� GL experts support the system from both a software and
IT domain and the commercial/engineering domain to
ensure that the solution continues to meet your business
objectives
� GL can support the solution from end-to-end including
software and hardware
� A GL support service can easily add extra support for
additional analysis and modelling using the data from
supported systems
� Regular reports give you key information about the
system and how it has been supported within the
required service levels
In addition, GL application hosting services offer further benefits:
� Significant savings in both time and cost when
implementing GL solutions
� Greater agility to respond to your business need quickly
� GL experts provide a single team to support every aspect
of your system including implementation, configurations,
hardware and software to keep the system running at
peak efficiency.

a. Access Manager for Star Energy (Underground Gas Storage)
Client: Star Energy
Country: UK
Timeline: Approximately 9 months
Issue:
The client is an oil production company with a number of depleted oil
fields suitable for conversion to underground gas storage facilities.
One such oil field has been converted.
The client required a commercial third party access solution to
automate and manage the commercial interactions between the
storage operator and the storage customers across a number of
storage services.
The system was also required to communicate commercial storage
requirements to the operator’s plant operation team, and to capture
all required plant operation data.
The client required that the system should have the flexibility to
support additional storage services as they are made available, and
to support multiple storage sites as further depleted oil fields are
converted for gas storage use.
Methodology and results:
The GL Access Manager solution was chosen to meet this need. The
client recognised that our industry experience, technology and price
made us the best choice in this field. We secured this project against
some very tough competition.
The system was implemented in a number of phases, using the GL
proven Access Manager Implementation Methodology.
Critical customer nomination and allocation functionality was urgently
required to support the commencement of the operator’s first storage
contract following commissioning of the storage facility. This
functionality was provided as phase 1 of the project, and was tested,
implemented and operational in time for the first contractual storage
nominations at the site.
Subsequent phases have added site availability functionality, which
enables the storage operator to plan maintenance schedules and
record breakdown details. It also ensures that the contractual
implications of storage availability are applied to the nomination and
allocation of gas.
An interface to the storage operator’s financial system has been
added to provide details of storage activities for the billing of services
used by storage customers.
The solution was developed using an Oracle 10g database accessed
via a secure web interface.
Key deliverables included:
� A fully configured and customised Access Manager
system
� Consultancy and analysis of system requirements
� Phased implementation to provide support for the client’s
business when needed
� Training and documentation
� On site assistance with user acceptance testing
� Changes to scope and requirements requested by the
client and managed by GL throughout the development
period
� A comprehensive support service
Benefits:
The client experienced the following benefits:
� Automation of business processes against a timescale
that met business requirements
� Able to implement new storage services as they became
beneficial to the business
� Flexible phasing of new system functionality
CASE STUDIES
� Parameterisation of storage services allows the business to
change contract details without the need for GL
intervention
� Reliable third party access system continues to support
the business with minimal need for GL support
� A system delivered to a timescale dictated by the physical
commissioning of the store and the commencement of
contractual storage provision
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CASE STUDIES
b. Access Manager Implementation for Grain LNG
Client: Grain LNG
Country: UK
Timeline: Approximately 9 months
Issue:
Grain LNG Ltd (GLNG) needed a solution to support the commercial
management of their LNG importation facility at the Isle of Grain. The
Isle of Grain facility affords deep-water access for LNG ships and is
located in Kent, close to the demand for gas. The facility has a
deliverability rate of 243GWh/day and began operation in June 2005.
Methodology and results:
GL implemented Access Manager for GLNG. Access Manager provides
a set of electronic tools for GLNG to support, control and manage
their entire commercial processes:
� Automatically validates customer nominations
� Based upon customer contracts automatically allocates
hydrocarbons
� Forecasts the ‘end of day’ gas imbalance i.e. the
difference between nominated delivery and actual
delivery (Commercial Balancing)
� Provides a mechanism to inform sites to flow gas
� Provides a mechanism to inform customers of
interruptions to their services
� Maintains an up to date record of the services purchased
by customers
� Maintains up to date customer invoice information
� Communicates with potential customers via a bulletin
board
� Provides a record of commercial inventory for each
customer
� Communicates the latest unloading programme and its
impact on forecast inventory
Benefits:
As described above, Access Manager provides a set of electronic tools
for GLNG to support, control and manage their entire commercial
processes. In addition the system provides customers with secure
on-line access via a standard Internet connection to live information
relevant to their LNG importation and storage services and enables
them to perform the following activities:
� View the GLNG Services they have purchased
� View their current inventory
� View site availability (site status)
� Make Delivery Nominations
� Monitor Delivery Nominations against actual delivery
� Trade berthing rights, storage capacity, deliverability and
gas with other GLNG customers
� Communicate with other customers via a bulletin board

c. E.ON Földgáz Trade (EFT) - Imbalance Penalty Reduction
Through Accurate Demand Forecasting
Date: 2007
Customer: E.ON Földgáz Trade
Savings: Improved forecasting accuracy and improved
efficiency through automation.
Issue:
E.ON Földgáz Trade (EFT) contracted GL to deliver a solution to
provide accurate demand forecasts to reduce imbalance penalties
within the regulated Hungarian market. The key project objectives
were to:
� Provide forecasts for 50 exit points including local
distribution companies and total system load.
� Provide re-nominations on request to the transmission
operator within one hour
� Automate time-consuming processes
� Provide day, day-ahead and week-ahead forecasts.
� Manage the system with minimal assistance
Methodology & Results:
An initial conceptual phase defined data requirements, forecasting
needs and required Forecaster configuration details. EFT provided
data that was analysed and modeled by GL for deployment. An
interface was developed to automate the data transactions from EFT’s
legacy database and the GL system using XML.
A set of reports were developed to allow EFT to monitor and manage
the system. GL carried out a comprehensive series of tests to ensure
smooth system operation and provided a detailed training course.
There were a number of issues with the data sources that impacted
the project timelines, however, the teams worked together to re-plan
and ensure the data issues were resolved to result in a smooth testing
phase.
The initial model accuracy showed improvements over current
processes particularly at total system load level.
During project implementation and testing, EFT provided excellent
access to its IT systems to ensure these activities were successful.
Training course material was translated into Hungarian, which meant
the training course was well received and ran smoothly.
The deliverables for this project were:
� Forecaster product documentation
� Model summary presentation and detailed documentation
� Forecaster configuration specification
� Forecaster training course and material
� Access Manager and Forecaster installation
� Fully-configured database containing historical data and
models
� Overall test plan
� Interfaces to existing business systems
� Sample reports
� An ongoing support service
Benefits
CASE STUDIES
� Increased efficiency through automated critical
forecasting processes
� Improved accuracy to reduce imbalance penalties and
improved decision-making
� Better understanding of forecast models and reduced risk
15

Energy Solutions
Asset Integrity Systems
� Commercial Gas Management Solutions
Pipeline Management Solutions
Network Development Services
Issue no.001 15.05.2008
Germanischer Lloyd
Industrial Services GmbH
Oil and Gas
Steinhöft 9
20459 Hamburg, Germany
Phone +49 40 36149-7700
Fax +49 40 36149-1781
glis@gl-group.com
www.gl-group.com/glis
Germanischer Lloyd does not warrant or assume any kind of liability for the
up-to-date nature, accuracy, completeness or quality of the information provided.
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