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6 ¹ÃÃõ ¾Ã¹¸Ãõà - TGO Conference
6 ¹ÃÃõ ¾Ã¹¸Ãõà - TGO Conference
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<strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong></strong><br />
<strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong></strong><br />
<strong>ก</strong> <br />
<strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong>
<strong>ก</strong><br />
<strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong><br />
<strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong><br />
<strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong><br />
<strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong><br />
<strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong><br />
<strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong>
<strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong><br />
: <strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong></strong><strong>ก</strong>
<strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong><br />
<strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong></strong><br />
<strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong></strong> <strong>ก</strong><br />
<strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong> <br />
<strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong></strong>
<strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong><br />
<strong>ก</strong> <br />
<strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong></strong> <br />
<strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong> (the<br />
environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis : EKC)<br />
<strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong></strong><br />
<strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong> <strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong></strong><strong>ก</strong><br />
<strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong><br />
<strong>ก</strong><br />
<strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong></strong><strong>ก</strong> <strong>ก</strong><br />
<strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong>
<strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong><br />
C =<br />
t<br />
β<br />
0<br />
+β<br />
1<br />
e +β<br />
t<br />
2<br />
y +β<br />
t<br />
3<br />
y<br />
2<br />
t<br />
+ β<br />
4<br />
o + ε<br />
t<br />
t<br />
C t <strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong></strong><strong>ก</strong> (CO 2 )<br />
(<strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong>)<br />
e t <strong>ก</strong>(<strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong> :Kgoe)<br />
y t ()<br />
y t<br />
2<br />
<strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong>()<br />
o t <strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong> (trade openness) () <br />
<strong>ก</strong><br />
ε t <strong>ก</strong><br />
: <strong>ก</strong> natural<br />
logarithms
<strong>ก</strong><br />
<strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong></strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong><br />
<strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong></strong><strong>ก</strong><br />
<strong>ก</strong> <strong>ก</strong> ( β 1 > 0 )<br />
<strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong></strong><strong>ก</strong><br />
<strong>ก</strong> <br />
(β 2 ) <br />
<strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong> (β 3 ) <strong>ก</strong> (<br />
β 2 > 0 , β 3 < 0 )<br />
<strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong></strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong> <br />
<strong>ก</strong> ( β 4 < 0 ) <br />
<strong>ก</strong> <strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong> <br />
<strong>ก</strong> ( β 4 > 0 )
<strong>ก</strong> unit root<br />
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test<br />
Variables ln(c t ) ln(e t ) ln(y t ) ln(y t ) 2 ln(o t )<br />
No intercept<br />
Level 2.1765** 1.3224 1.2426 2.1497** 2.0545**<br />
1st diff -1.5334 -1.2343 -1.2821 -1.4655 -2.7198***<br />
Intercept<br />
Level -1.1431 -0.7845 -0.7604 -0.8260 -0.8692<br />
1st diff -2.8802* -2.5865 -2.9080* -3.5470** -3.9978***<br />
Trend and intercept<br />
Level -1.3492 -2.4052 -2.8448 -1.8430 -1.9700<br />
1st diff -3.1816 -2.8236 -3.0332 -3.7076** -4.0346**<br />
: *** 1% ** 5% *<br />
10%
<strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong></strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong><br />
<strong>ก</strong> <strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong><br />
(variables) Coefficient Coefficient<br />
(Constant) -10.35611<br />
(-4.563216)<br />
-15.07438<br />
(-6.410127)<br />
<strong>ก</strong> (e t<br />
) 1.104637**<br />
1.019159**<br />
(7.160803)<br />
(9.093623)<br />
(y t<br />
) 2.105200**<br />
3.050911**<br />
(5.127388)<br />
(6.859730)<br />
<strong>ก</strong> ( y t<br />
) 2 -0.101520**<br />
-0.137212**<br />
(-4.623366)<br />
(-6.707832)<br />
<strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong>(o t<br />
) -0.047894<br />
-0.222172**<br />
(-0.499496)<br />
(-2.915037)<br />
AR(1) 0.436395**<br />
(4.051035)<br />
R 2 0.997596 0.999154<br />
Adjusted R 2 0.997178 0.998953<br />
Log likelihood 59.16337 71.86352<br />
F-statistic 2386.557 4961.137<br />
Durbin-Watson stat 0.682885 1.877056<br />
Inverted AR Roots .44<br />
** 0.01
<strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong><br />
<strong>ก</strong> 1 <strong>ก</strong><br />
<strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong></strong><strong>ก</strong> 1.019<br />
<strong>ก</strong><br />
1 <strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong></strong><strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong></strong><strong>ก</strong><br />
3.050<br />
<strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong></strong><br />
<strong>ก</strong><br />
<strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong></strong><strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong></strong><strong>ก</strong><br />
( β 2 > 0 β 3 < 0)<br />
<strong>ก</strong> 1 <strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong></strong><strong>ก</strong><br />
<strong>ก</strong> 0.047
<strong>ก</strong><br />
<strong>ก</strong><strong>ก</strong>
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