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1.0 WHAT’S GOING ON GLOBALLY?<br />

Investors face the perpetual dilemma between risk and reward; between preserving capital and generating<br />

growth. Now however, they face this dilemma in an environment of modest global economic growth and very<br />

low interest rates.<br />

The level of volatility and uncertainty surrounding the financial<br />

markets has recently increased, reflecting mixed economic data<br />

notwithstanding the strong accommodative monetary policies<br />

adopted by Central Banks in the large advanced economies.<br />

The Greek sovereign crisis once again weighed on the markets<br />

recently but the strong austerity measures enforced by the Eurozone<br />

Ministers in conjunction with Greek reforms saw the threat of<br />

bankruptcy being avoided for the moment.<br />

In addition, after years of rapid expansion, the Chinese economy is<br />

now cooling off with lower economic growth. We expect the Chinese<br />

government to deploy further monetary easing and other growthsupporting<br />

measures in the coming months.<br />

There have also been concerns over increasing commodity supply,<br />

resulting in softening of commodity prices, particularly for gold, iron<br />

ore, copper, and oil.<br />

Perhaps the most encouraging sign of economic improvement is the<br />

US Federal Reserve’s upgraded assessment of the overall economy<br />

and its stated intention to increase the federal funds rate - the first<br />

time in almost a decade.<br />

Although the Australian dollar may now stabilise around US70 cents,<br />

it has fallen significantly from US95 cents in mid-2014.<br />

In Australia, the decline in commodity prices and the unwinding of<br />

resource investment is exerting downward pressure on economic<br />

activity, but stronger export volumes and the recovery in housing are<br />

sustaining some moderate growth. Low interest rates and the lower<br />

Australian dollar are also likely to support corporate earnings and the<br />

economy’s ‘rebalancing’. We are currently forecasting the Australian<br />

economy to grow by around 2.6% in 2015 and then 2.8% in 2016.<br />

Even with the interventionist policies of the developed world’s Central<br />

Banks, growth in most advanced economies has remained subdued,<br />

unemployment has remained elevated, and these economies are<br />

likely to continue to face headwinds for some time to come.<br />

2

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