DEVELOPMENT

entry into the stage of receding cardiovascular mortality,
which is one of the main factors that have driven the
increase life expectancy in the Western countries since
the 1970s. Estonia preceded its Baltic neighbours in entering
this new stage, and in regard to women, has caught
up with the most successful countries in Eastern Europe.
Although the views of demographers regarding the
future population trends became more optimistic during
the last decade (Morgan 2003; Goldstein, Sobotka, Jasilioniene
2009; Bongaarts, Sobotka 2012), the international
comparisons reveal the persistence of regional differences
that developed in Europe in the 1980s and the 1990s.
This contemporary regional variation primarily stems
from fertility, Northern and Western Europe feature
fertility rates close to the replacement whereas Southern
and Eastern Europe, along with the German-speaking
countries, are characterised by lower demographic zones.
Thus, the long-term demographic outlook for Estonia
depends to an important extent on the zone towards
which Estonia will drift.
Notwithstanding the long-term course, we must
be prepared, in the shorter term, for the fact that the
decrease in fertility that occurred in the 1990s will
increasingly affect Estonia’s contemporary demographic
profile. During the current decade, the small generations
born in the 1990s will reach parenting age, which will
inevitably and noticeably decrease the number of births,
and shift the natural increase to further to negative side.
This also implies that population decrease and ageing will
persist, and carefully planned efforts for the adaptation
of societal institutions to demographic changes will be
required. According to medium and constant fertility
scenarios of the United Nations population projections,
by 2050, the percentage of the elderly (65+) will increase
from the current 18% to 25%-26% in Estonia (United
Nations 2011). The old-age dependency ratio (ratio of the
age group 65+ to age group 20-65) will increase from 28
to 47-49 during the same period.
Despite the extent of the projected changes, it
would be a misconception to assume that such trends are
something unique to Estonia. According to the United
Nations projections, the forecasted increase in the proportion
of elderly and the old-age dependency ratio in
Estonia appear similar to those projected for the Northern
European countries. In the latter region, the proportion
of the elderly is projected to increase from 17% to 25%,
and the old-age dependency ratio from 28 to 47 in 2050.
For Western Europe, the UN predicts that the proportion
of the aged will reach 27%–28%, and the old-age
dependency ratio 52–53. For Eastern Europe, the corresponding
figures are 27%– 33% and 52–55 respectively.
In case the demographic trends will test the limits of
the adaptability of European societies, this will probably
happen in the Mediterranean countries. As a combined
result of high life expectancy and very low fertility during
almost three decades, this region can expect the elderly
to make up one-third of the population (32%-34%), and
the old-age dependency ratio to reach 66–69. A similar
future awaits the Asian industrial countries (e.g. South
Korea, Singapore) which underwent an exceptionally
rapid demographic transition in the second half of the
20 th century. The UN projects that the proportion of the
elderly will reach 33%–36% in the South Korea and the
old-age dependency ratio 63–67 by 2050. In the three
South American countries, discussed in this report, the
old-age dependency ratio will reach 37-42 by 2050, while
the population ageing will continue and peak in the second
half of the 21 st century. The small variances across
project scenarios shows the accuracy of the projections,
which results from the fact that those who will be the
elderly in the middle of the 21 st century, are all present in
the contemporary populations, as do the majority of those
who will provide for their maintenance after 35–40 years.
In conclusion, it should be emphasised that,
although the population projections provide useful
insights into the demographic trends across one or two
generations, they do not determine the future. Therefore,
the future course of Estonia’s demographic development
is not limited to the narrow numerical intervals
of the projections cited above, which in comparison to
some other countries, may even instil a deceptive sense
of security. As a small and open society, Estonia will
remain demographically more dynamic and influenceable
than larger nations. This is proven by Estonia’s
position at the extreme positions, or nearby, in several
international rankings. The concluding message of this
chapter could be that in the contemporary demographic
scene, possibilities exist for both positive and negative
developments. It is definitely not impossible to take
advantage of these possibilities and turn the positive
into reality, but this will require trust within society,
and a quest for smart solutions.
The authors thank Liili Abuladze, Asta Põldma and Jaak Valge for
their valuable comments and recommendations in the course of
preparing this chapter.
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