DEVELOPMENT

New features were introduced into Estonia’s population
development by the loss of independence in the course
of the World War II. Based on evidence presented in this
chapter, the departure from a long-term path of demographic
development could be seen as a common denominator
thereof. Although it did not take long to inflict
the demographic losses due to war and repressions, the
international comparisons show that it required an entire
generation to transform the demographic patterns – judging
from childbearing, mortality and ageing, the transformation
was completed by the early 1970s. At the same time,
a new wave of demographic changes had gained momentum in
Northern and Western Europe. Unlike in the past, however,
the manifestations of this wave – with a few exceptions
– did not appear in Estonia. Instead, the stagnation in
life expectancy, the persistent shift toward ever earlier
childbearing, an increase in period fertility rates based
thereon, as well as the deceleration of population ageing,
brought Estonia ever closer to Eastern Europe, when it
came to demographic patterns. By the 1980s, the amalgamation
was virtually complete with regard to the main
demographic processes.
The collapse of state socialism opened up the
way for social upheaval in Eastern Europe, which also
included demographic changes. In regard to most of the
new demographic trends that emerged in the region in
the early 1990s – population decline, sharp reduction in
fertility, decrease in life expectancy, rise in emigration,
and the acceleration of population ageing – among the
countries of Eastern Europe, Estonia stands out for the
rapid pace and large scale of the changes. This can be
explained by a more radical detachment from the old
societal system on the one hand, , and the situation that
had developed during the period of state socialism (e.g.
markedly long stagnation in life expectancy and population
ageing, the large immigrant population, relatively
high fertility in the 1980s, following lower levels in the
1950s and 1960s).
Although there is a stark contrast between the
demographic indicators in the 1980s and 1990s, in the
comparative view, it is not at all clear that a dividing
line indicating the start of a new demographic era can
be drawn between these two decades. If we consider the
position of Estonia relative to Europe’s major regions,
Estonia’s demographic affiliation with Eastern Europe,
which had developed in the 1970s and 1980s, persisted
in the 1990s, notwithstanding the radical transformation
in the demographic regime. It is interesting to pose
the same question in regard to contemporary Estonia
– two decades into the restored independence, is there
any reason to speak about a new stage of demographic
development, or does the legacy of the occupations continue
to determine the country’s demographic profile?
A good means of finding an answer to this question is
international comparison, which the present human
development report focuses on.
The evidence presented in this chapter suggests
that the contemporary demographic patterns reflect the
influences from the past, as well as some new features
that have emerged relatively recently. Considering the
continuity characteristic of population development,
such interweaving is to be expected. The most spectacular
manifestation of the influence carried forward from
the past is the continued population decrease, which
clearly differentiates Estonia from the Northern and
Western European countries. Although the population
decrease is taking place now, many of the reasons for
this can be found in the earlier demographic trends. For
instance, this includes the “young” family formation and
childbearing of the 1970s and 1980s, the replacement of
which, with a “more mature” pattern, which started in
the 1990s, continues to push the observed fertility rates
downward for another 10 to 15 years, and keeps the
natural increase in the negative. The circumstances that
caused many post-war immigrants and their descendants
to leave Estonia in the 1990s can also be traced
back to the period prior to the restoration of independence.
The gaps in the standard of living and welfare
systems that separate Estonia from the neighbouring
countries, which have not experienced repeated societal
discontinuities, are also associated with the past. This
gap has, by now, been only partially closed, and instead
of attracting immigrants to Estonia, promotes emigration
driven by economic motives.
At the same time, international comparisons also
highlight other features related to population development
in Estonia. This is most clearly expressed in the
diversity of family forms, which places Estonia among
the forerunners of the second demographic transition
(Sobotka 2008; Lesthaeghe 2010). Estonia shares several
common features with the higher fertility countries of
Northern and Western Europe. These include favourable
opportunities for combining work and parenthood,
the availability of public childcare services, and starting
from 2004, the income-related parental leave scheme
with a high rate of compensation. Although a generous
welfare system comparable to the Nordic countries will
remain unachievable in the near future, the opportunities
for combining work and parenthood in Estonia
are considered to be among the best, when compared
to the Eastern and Southern Member Countries of the
European Union (Matysiak 2011). More specific analyses
(Klesment, Puur 2010) have revealed a positive association
between educational attainment and the progression
to second birth, which is known to be one of the mechanisms
supporting higher fertility in the Nordic countries
(Kravdal 1992; Vikat 2004; Gerster et al. 2007). As more
educated persons are regarded the forerunners who lead
the way for other groups, then the emergence of a positive
relationship between education and childbearing
could be considered to be a good sign for the future.
The new features that deserve attention in a comparative
perspective are not limited to family forms and
fertility. In the context of population ageing, for instance,
Estonia stands out for the notably high labour market
attachment among older persons. Before the economic
recession, from 2005 to 2009, in regard to the employment
rate of 55-64-year-olds Estonia ranked second or
third among the EU countries, after Sweden and Denmark.
Against the background of the health status of
the older population in Estonia, such a high ranking is
perhaps surprising, but instils confidence in the ability to
absorb the effects of demographic ageing. With regard to
mortality, international comparisons corroborate Estonia’s
Estonian Human Development Report 2012/2013
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