DEVELOPMENT
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New features were introduced into Estonia’s population<br />
development by the loss of independence in the course<br />
of the World War II. Based on evidence presented in this<br />
chapter, the departure from a long-term path of demographic<br />
development could be seen as a common denominator<br />
thereof. Although it did not take long to inflict<br />
the demographic losses due to war and repressions, the<br />
international comparisons show that it required an entire<br />
generation to transform the demographic patterns – judging<br />
from childbearing, mortality and ageing, the transformation<br />
was completed by the early 1970s. At the same time,<br />
a new wave of demographic changes had gained momentum in<br />
Northern and Western Europe. Unlike in the past, however,<br />
the manifestations of this wave – with a few exceptions<br />
– did not appear in Estonia. Instead, the stagnation in<br />
life expectancy, the persistent shift toward ever earlier<br />
childbearing, an increase in period fertility rates based<br />
thereon, as well as the deceleration of population ageing,<br />
brought Estonia ever closer to Eastern Europe, when it<br />
came to demographic patterns. By the 1980s, the amalgamation<br />
was virtually complete with regard to the main<br />
demographic processes.<br />
The collapse of state socialism opened up the<br />
way for social upheaval in Eastern Europe, which also<br />
included demographic changes. In regard to most of the<br />
new demographic trends that emerged in the region in<br />
the early 1990s – population decline, sharp reduction in<br />
fertility, decrease in life expectancy, rise in emigration,<br />
and the acceleration of population ageing – among the<br />
countries of Eastern Europe, Estonia stands out for the<br />
rapid pace and large scale of the changes. This can be<br />
explained by a more radical detachment from the old<br />
societal system on the one hand, , and the situation that<br />
had developed during the period of state socialism (e.g.<br />
markedly long stagnation in life expectancy and population<br />
ageing, the large immigrant population, relatively<br />
high fertility in the 1980s, following lower levels in the<br />
1950s and 1960s).<br />
Although there is a stark contrast between the<br />
demographic indicators in the 1980s and 1990s, in the<br />
comparative view, it is not at all clear that a dividing<br />
line indicating the start of a new demographic era can<br />
be drawn between these two decades. If we consider the<br />
position of Estonia relative to Europe’s major regions,<br />
Estonia’s demographic affiliation with Eastern Europe,<br />
which had developed in the 1970s and 1980s, persisted<br />
in the 1990s, notwithstanding the radical transformation<br />
in the demographic regime. It is interesting to pose<br />
the same question in regard to contemporary Estonia<br />
– two decades into the restored independence, is there<br />
any reason to speak about a new stage of demographic<br />
development, or does the legacy of the occupations continue<br />
to determine the country’s demographic profile?<br />
A good means of finding an answer to this question is<br />
international comparison, which the present human<br />
development report focuses on.<br />
The evidence presented in this chapter suggests<br />
that the contemporary demographic patterns reflect the<br />
influences from the past, as well as some new features<br />
that have emerged relatively recently. Considering the<br />
continuity characteristic of population development,<br />
such interweaving is to be expected. The most spectacular<br />
manifestation of the influence carried forward from<br />
the past is the continued population decrease, which<br />
clearly differentiates Estonia from the Northern and<br />
Western European countries. Although the population<br />
decrease is taking place now, many of the reasons for<br />
this can be found in the earlier demographic trends. For<br />
instance, this includes the “young” family formation and<br />
childbearing of the 1970s and 1980s, the replacement of<br />
which, with a “more mature” pattern, which started in<br />
the 1990s, continues to push the observed fertility rates<br />
downward for another 10 to 15 years, and keeps the<br />
natural increase in the negative. The circumstances that<br />
caused many post-war immigrants and their descendants<br />
to leave Estonia in the 1990s can also be traced<br />
back to the period prior to the restoration of independence.<br />
The gaps in the standard of living and welfare<br />
systems that separate Estonia from the neighbouring<br />
countries, which have not experienced repeated societal<br />
discontinuities, are also associated with the past. This<br />
gap has, by now, been only partially closed, and instead<br />
of attracting immigrants to Estonia, promotes emigration<br />
driven by economic motives.<br />
At the same time, international comparisons also<br />
highlight other features related to population development<br />
in Estonia. This is most clearly expressed in the<br />
diversity of family forms, which places Estonia among<br />
the forerunners of the second demographic transition<br />
(Sobotka 2008; Lesthaeghe 2010). Estonia shares several<br />
common features with the higher fertility countries of<br />
Northern and Western Europe. These include favourable<br />
opportunities for combining work and parenthood,<br />
the availability of public childcare services, and starting<br />
from 2004, the income-related parental leave scheme<br />
with a high rate of compensation. Although a generous<br />
welfare system comparable to the Nordic countries will<br />
remain unachievable in the near future, the opportunities<br />
for combining work and parenthood in Estonia<br />
are considered to be among the best, when compared<br />
to the Eastern and Southern Member Countries of the<br />
European Union (Matysiak 2011). More specific analyses<br />
(Klesment, Puur 2010) have revealed a positive association<br />
between educational attainment and the progression<br />
to second birth, which is known to be one of the mechanisms<br />
supporting higher fertility in the Nordic countries<br />
(Kravdal 1992; Vikat 2004; Gerster et al. 2007). As more<br />
educated persons are regarded the forerunners who lead<br />
the way for other groups, then the emergence of a positive<br />
relationship between education and childbearing<br />
could be considered to be a good sign for the future.<br />
The new features that deserve attention in a comparative<br />
perspective are not limited to family forms and<br />
fertility. In the context of population ageing, for instance,<br />
Estonia stands out for the notably high labour market<br />
attachment among older persons. Before the economic<br />
recession, from 2005 to 2009, in regard to the employment<br />
rate of 55-64-year-olds Estonia ranked second or<br />
third among the EU countries, after Sweden and Denmark.<br />
Against the background of the health status of<br />
the older population in Estonia, such a high ranking is<br />
perhaps surprising, but instils confidence in the ability to<br />
absorb the effects of demographic ageing. With regard to<br />
mortality, international comparisons corroborate Estonia’s<br />
Estonian Human Development Report 2012/2013<br />
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