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for Eastern Europe was replaced by a more modest difference. During the recent four to five years, Estonia’s total population growth no longer markedly differed, in the negative sense, from the average of the region. Of the two components of population change, this direction has been supported, primarily, by the reduction in the negative natu ral increase in population. The other areas of Europe featured rapid population growth in the first decade of the 21 st century: between 2000 and 2011, the population of Northern Europe increased by 6.9%, Western Europe by 9.6%, and Southern Europe by 7.3%. In the context of a modern demographic regime, such growth rates can only be achieved with the support of large-scale immigration. This is confirmed by an increase in the role of net migration in all three regions, compared to the 1990s. In 2000–2011, the direct contribution of migration varied from 64% to 90% of the total growth in these regions. The indirect impact of migration must be added to the aforementioned figures, in order to gauge the full contribution of immigration. The comparative data, on Figure 1.2.9, also highlight the essential role of economic conditions in the receiving countries in sustaining the migration-based growth. The impact of relinquishing this precondition is reflected in the trends for Southern Europe during recent years. The data on population change, natural increase and net migration by individual countries is presented in Table 1.2.2. 1.2.8 Summary In the preceding sections, population development in Estonia was examined against the background of Europe’s four main regions. In regard to all the processes addressed, the time-span of the study, which extends back to the onset of the demographic modernisation, highlighted several stages of development that are also related to the changes in Estonia’s position on the demographic map of Europe. The longest of these stages came to an end with World War II. Its beginning can be traced back to the 17 th and 18 th centuries, when the countries to the west of the Hajnal line took the first significant step toward a modern demographic regime. Although this step did not involve direct change in fertility and mortality, it replaced early and universal marriage Malthusian marriage and determined Estonia’s demographic affiliation for the next two centuries. Along with Finland, Ingria, Latvia and Lithuania, Estonia formed the easternmost area for the spread of the new marriage pattern. In his research, Ansley Coale, the initiator of the Princeton European Fertility Project (1973; 1992), has demonstrated a close connection between the emergence of Malthusian marriage and the early onset of fertility transition, which placed Estonia among the forerunners of demographic modernisation in Europe and the world. In the countries belonging to the latter group, the transition to a modern demographic regime was largely completed by the end of the 1930s. In that period, Estonia’s demographic development bore a close similarity to that in the countries of Northern and Western Europe. Figure 1.2.9 Natural increase, net migration and population change. European regions 1960–2011 Per thousand Per thousand Per thousand Per thousand Population change 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 1960 1960 1965 1965 1970 1970 1975 1975 Net migration 1980 1980 1985 1985 1990 1990 1995 1995 Natural increase 2000 2000 2005 Northern Europe Southern Europe Western Europe Eastern Europe 2005 2010 2010 26 Estonian Human Development Report 2012/2013
New features were introduced into Estonia’s population development by the loss of independence in the course of the World War II. Based on evidence presented in this chapter, the departure from a long-term path of demographic development could be seen as a common denominator thereof. Although it did not take long to inflict the demographic losses due to war and repressions, the international comparisons show that it required an entire generation to transform the demographic patterns – judging from childbearing, mortality and ageing, the transformation was completed by the early 1970s. At the same time, a new wave of demographic changes had gained momentum in Northern and Western Europe. Unlike in the past, however, the manifestations of this wave – with a few exceptions – did not appear in Estonia. Instead, the stagnation in life expectancy, the persistent shift toward ever earlier childbearing, an increase in period fertility rates based thereon, as well as the deceleration of population ageing, brought Estonia ever closer to Eastern Europe, when it came to demographic patterns. By the 1980s, the amalgamation was virtually complete with regard to the main demographic processes. The collapse of state socialism opened up the way for social upheaval in Eastern Europe, which also included demographic changes. In regard to most of the new demographic trends that emerged in the region in the early 1990s – population decline, sharp reduction in fertility, decrease in life expectancy, rise in emigration, and the acceleration of population ageing – among the countries of Eastern Europe, Estonia stands out for the rapid pace and large scale of the changes. This can be explained by a more radical detachment from the old societal system on the one hand, , and the situation that had developed during the period of state socialism (e.g. markedly long stagnation in life expectancy and population ageing, the large immigrant population, relatively high fertility in the 1980s, following lower levels in the 1950s and 1960s). Although there is a stark contrast between the demographic indicators in the 1980s and 1990s, in the comparative view, it is not at all clear that a dividing line indicating the start of a new demographic era can be drawn between these two decades. If we consider the position of Estonia relative to Europe’s major regions, Estonia’s demographic affiliation with Eastern Europe, which had developed in the 1970s and 1980s, persisted in the 1990s, notwithstanding the radical transformation in the demographic regime. It is interesting to pose the same question in regard to contemporary Estonia – two decades into the restored independence, is there any reason to speak about a new stage of demographic development, or does the legacy of the occupations continue to determine the country’s demographic profile? A good means of finding an answer to this question is international comparison, which the present human development report focuses on. The evidence presented in this chapter suggests that the contemporary demographic patterns reflect the influences from the past, as well as some new features that have emerged relatively recently. Considering the continuity characteristic of population development, such interweaving is to be expected. The most spectacular manifestation of the influence carried forward from the past is the continued population decrease, which clearly differentiates Estonia from the Northern and Western European countries. Although the population decrease is taking place now, many of the reasons for this can be found in the earlier demographic trends. For instance, this includes the “young” family formation and childbearing of the 1970s and 1980s, the replacement of which, with a “more mature” pattern, which started in the 1990s, continues to push the observed fertility rates downward for another 10 to 15 years, and keeps the natural increase in the negative. The circumstances that caused many post-war immigrants and their descendants to leave Estonia in the 1990s can also be traced back to the period prior to the restoration of independence. The gaps in the standard of living and welfare systems that separate Estonia from the neighbouring countries, which have not experienced repeated societal discontinuities, are also associated with the past. This gap has, by now, been only partially closed, and instead of attracting immigrants to Estonia, promotes emigration driven by economic motives. At the same time, international comparisons also highlight other features related to population development in Estonia. This is most clearly expressed in the diversity of family forms, which places Estonia among the forerunners of the second demographic transition (Sobotka 2008; Lesthaeghe 2010). Estonia shares several common features with the higher fertility countries of Northern and Western Europe. These include favourable opportunities for combining work and parenthood, the availability of public childcare services, and starting from 2004, the income-related parental leave scheme with a high rate of compensation. Although a generous welfare system comparable to the Nordic countries will remain unachievable in the near future, the opportunities for combining work and parenthood in Estonia are considered to be among the best, when compared to the Eastern and Southern Member Countries of the European Union (Matysiak 2011). More specific analyses (Klesment, Puur 2010) have revealed a positive association between educational attainment and the progression to second birth, which is known to be one of the mechanisms supporting higher fertility in the Nordic countries (Kravdal 1992; Vikat 2004; Gerster et al. 2007). As more educated persons are regarded the forerunners who lead the way for other groups, then the emergence of a positive relationship between education and childbearing could be considered to be a good sign for the future. The new features that deserve attention in a comparative perspective are not limited to family forms and fertility. In the context of population ageing, for instance, Estonia stands out for the notably high labour market attachment among older persons. Before the economic recession, from 2005 to 2009, in regard to the employment rate of 55-64-year-olds Estonia ranked second or third among the EU countries, after Sweden and Denmark. Against the background of the health status of the older population in Estonia, such a high ranking is perhaps surprising, but instils confidence in the ability to absorb the effects of demographic ageing. With regard to mortality, international comparisons corroborate Estonia’s Estonian Human Development Report 2012/2013 27
Page 1: ESTONIAN HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2
Page 4 and 5: Table of Contents 1 Human Capital /
Page 6 and 7: Dear Reader Since the moment when E
Page 9 and 10: 1Human Capital Estonian Human Devel
Page 11 and 12: the HDI’s content has also been h
Page 13 and 14: Figure 1.1.1 The human development
Page 15 and 16: Figure 1.1.7 The income sub-index:
Page 17 and 18: The results of the Princeton Projec
Page 19 and 20: the hypothetical generation. The to
Page 21 and 22: Figure 1.2.3 Life expectancy. Eston
Page 23 and 24: Table 1.2.2 also presents the most
Page 25 and 26: The new trends that are appearing i
Page 27: Figure 1.2.8 Components of populati
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Page 33 and 34: Table 1.3.1 Best-known educational
Page 35 and 36: (OECD 2012b). Therefore a certain r
Page 37 and 38: The reciprocal dependence of the pr
Page 39 and 40: Figure 1.3.8 Percentage of students
Page 41 and 42: Table 1.3.4 The quality of educatio
Page 43 and 44: 1.4 Health Raul-Allan Kiivet Change
Page 45 and 46: Table 1.4.1 Usage of prescription m
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Page 49 and 50: promote healthy lifestyles among th
Page 51 and 52: Figure 1.5.1 The World Values Surve
Page 53 and 54: Table 1.5.2 Estonia’s participati
Page 55 and 56: Figure 1.5.3 The percentage of the
Page 57 and 58: Figure 1.5.5 Percentage of the Esto
Page 59 and 60: The fact that Estonia’s position
Page 61 and 62: Summary Mati Heidmets The global vi
Page 63 and 64: 2People and Society Estonian Human
Page 65 and 66: Table 2.1.1 Structure of the Bertel
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Page 69 and 70: 2.2 Freedom and democracy Martin M
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strongest, while a very small perce
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is concerned, Estonia is one of the
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Figure 2.4.2 Average circulation of
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2.5 Corruption Jüri Saar In accord
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Lithuania, 61%; and in Russia, 69%.
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2.6.2 Intentional homicides in Esto
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crime. And thirdly, there was a wis
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References 1. Ahven, A. & Tabur, L.
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states included in the EU Kids Onli
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2.8 Public assessments of the state
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Figure 2.8.4 Changes releated to tr
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of the state’s development are en
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Table 2.9.1 The positions of Estoni
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3. IEP (2011). Structures of Peace.
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3Welfare and the Quality of Life Es
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choices made, not what people say t
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Figure 3.1.5 Public social spending
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tion agreed upon the social contrac
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References 1. Aidukaite, J. (2006).
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hand, to the “inequality of acces
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and explanations of the extent of i
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5- much more than I deserve. Some d
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people in Estonia consider the inco
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Table 3.3.1 Experienced Well-Being
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at about 70%. In Latvia and Lithuan
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sign. It seems that the usual view
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3.4 Quality of life Anu Toots 3.4.1
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a uniform composite indicator has n
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3.4.6 The components of life qualit
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Figure 3.4.4c Perceived quality of
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Figure 3.4.5 Changes in the depriva
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3.5 Environment dimension of well-b
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Figure 3.5.1.b Estonia’s position
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3.5.4 Energy intensity The energy i
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productivity, which is defined as t
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perceive themselves as worse off th
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4The Economy Estonian Human Develop
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vide a valuable connection for maki
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Figure 4.1.3 Components of economic
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ule of law, the sub-indicators for
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References 1. Acemoglu, D.; Robinso
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Development Report employs generali
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and pasture land, and this was capi
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Basing the total and net savings re
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4.3 Labour market Reelika Leetmaa,
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The problems include the very limit
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• Expenditures for active labour
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who lose their jobs. These ensure i
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4.4 Productivity and the economic s
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labour costs at the company level r
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Table 4.4.4 Comparison of the produ
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Figure 4.4.1 Annual average increas
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4.5 Innovation Erik Terk, Katrin M
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Table 4.5.2 Comparison of innovatio
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Table 4.5.4 Comparison of the indic
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in order to make the R&D potential
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It is characteristic of the South K
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mechanisms for increasing their sta
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Globalisation and Policy Patterns 5
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When Estonia regained its independe
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5.2 The impacts of globalisation an
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Table 5.2.2 Support of the differen
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5.3 Development policies Erik Terk,
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• C -the “Estonia-centred” su
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Figure 5.4.1 Support for the possib
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Summary Erik Terk Estonia is part o
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ehavioural patterns. Therefore, it
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EDR 2012/2013 authors Clemens Buche
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EDR 2012/2013 authors Alari Purju i
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Editor-in-Chief: Mati Heidmets Prod
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