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tries of Eastern Europe. In the 1980s, Estonia experienced a temporary reversal of the ageing trend, which was caused by the small generation born during World War I and the War Independence entering old age. Due to the repeated disruptions in the process, the proportion of elderly in Estonia at the end of the 1980s was only 0.7 percentage points higher than at the beginning of the 1940s. The median age of the population was even lower than a half century earlier. Among European countries, Estonia and Latvia share the record for halting demographic ageing for the longest period, by means of immigration. The end of large-scale immigration and the simultaneous transformation of several demographic processes resulted in a marked acceleration of population ageing in Estonia in the 1990s. In that period, the post-war immigrants who had settled in Estonia in the 1940s and 1950s, started to reach old age, adding momentum to the ageing process. As a result, the proportion of elderly doubled among the foreign-origin population, and reached parity with the native population (Puur, Põldma 2010). The combined effect of these factors increased the proportion of the elderly from 11.6% to 17.4% (based on the census data, the ratio has been adjusted to 17.7%) in Estonia between 1990 and 2011. In that period, the tempo of Figure 1.2.7 Natural increase, net migration and total population increase. Estonia 1960–2011 Migration, per thousand Population change 12 8 4 0 -4 -8 -12 -16 1960 1965 1970 1975 Net migration 1980 1985 1990 1995 Natural increase 2000 2005 2010 population ageing in Estonia has been exceeded by only a few European nations. The rapid pace of ageing is also revealed by the comparison with the main regions of Europe (Figure 1.2.6). Against the background of the trends since 1990, it may seem surprising that the proportion of elderly in Estonia has not increased during the last four years. Like the disruption in the ageing trend in the 1980s, the reason relates again to the aftermath of the erratic 20 th century, or, more precisely, to the small size of the generation born in Estonia toward the end of World War II and immediately after the war (1943–1946). However, as the following sections of the chapter reveal, this is only a temporary cessation of demographic ageing. 1.2.7 Population change In this chapter, so far, the demographic processes have been dealt with separately, whereas now, the different perspectives will be integrated by focusing on population change. In the period perspective, change in the number of population reflects a combined outcome of fertility, mortality, immigration and emigration). Indirectly, an even broader spectrum of demographic processes is reflected (e.g. family formation and dissolution, and health-related behaviour), as are the outcomes of past demographic trends that are stored in the age structure of the population. For the better understanding of population change, the contribution made by its two components – natural increase and net migration – are shown below. Considering the dynamics of the demographic processes discussed in the earlier sections, it is, of course, not surprising that based on population change the period since 1960 is divided into very different parts in Estonia (Figure 1.2.7). Although population growth decelerated – by the late 1980s, the rate of growth had almost halved compared to the 1960s – until the restoration of independence it was still unusually large for a population that had modernised early on. Estonia’s population increased 30% in the period between 1960 and 1989 (among Estonians, the growth was 7.7%, among other ethnic groups it amounted to 95%). This exceeded the population growth in the Northern and Western European countries, in the same period, 1.7 to 2.1 times, and was also considerably larger than the growth observed for Southern Europe. Likewise, the population grew faster than in Estonia in 1960–1989 in only a few European countries. Without exception, these were countries in which the demographic transition had ended several decades later. The main reason for Estonia’s unprecedentedly rapid population growth was, of course, the persistent large-scale immigration from other parts of the former Soviet Union -- until the mid-1970s, more than half, and in the 1980s, approximately half of the total population growth was due to positive net migration. In the same period, in Western and Northern Europe, the contribution of net migration averaged 24% and 13%, respectively. In Eastern Europe, the role of migration was even smaller, and in Southern Europe, due to the dominance of emigration, the net migration made a negative contribution until the 1970s. 24 Estonian Human Development Report 2012/2013
Figure 1.2.8 Components of population change by Estonians and other ethnic groups. Estonia 1960–2011 Estonians: Net migration Natural increase Other ethnic groups: Net migration Natural increase 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 -15 -20 -20 -25 -25 -30 -30 thousand persons -35 -40 -45 -35 -40 -45 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 In fact, until the end of the 1980s, the role of migration, as a source of population growth, was actually even larger in Estonia than the percentages in the previous paragraph suggest. This is due to the indirect effect of immigration: positive natural increase supported by the youthful age structure of the population. To illustrate the total impact of migration, Figure 1.2.8 shows the components of population change by ethnicity. Since Estonia lost most its historical minorities in the course of World War II, the combined contribution of migration to population change is approximated by the total of net migration and the natural increase of ethnic groups other than Estonians. By employing this point of view, in the 1960s–1980s the contribution of migration amounts to about 4/5 of the total population growth in Estonia. The transformations in the demographic processes, which had started in the late 1980s, brought both components of population change to the negative side, already on the eve of the restoration of Estonia’s independence. The net migration, which usually reacts more rapidly, became negative in 1989, and the natural increase followed in 1991. Although the growth had been replaced by decrease, migration remained the main source for the population change during the 1990s. The net migration that had become negative, due to the partial return of the post-war immigrants to their countries of origin, reduced the population by 9.7%, in the course of the decade. The negative natural increase added another 2.9%. Among the countries included in this study, Estonia featured the greatest population loss during the 1990s. In Estonia, the population decreased by 12.6% (Estonians by 3.5%, and the other ethnic groups by 27%), followed by Latvia (a reduction of 10.7%) and Bulgaria (a reduction of 6.6%). The average population decrease in Eastern Europe, in the 1990s, was limited to 2.8%. In the other regions of Europe, the populations increased on average by 3.3% to 6.0%, with 50% to 88% of the observed increase directly attributable to immigration. The first decade of this century was characterised by the gradual improvement in demographic measures, but this still did not halt the population decrease. The recent census showed that, in the period from 2000 to 2011, Estonia’s population decreased by 5.7% (the reduction in the number of Estonians was 3.0%, for other ethnic groups 11.3%). Of the components of population change, the largest contribution continued to be made by negative net migration, but unlike in the 1990s, its predominance over the contribution of natural increase was no longer as excessive (-3.2% and -2.5% respectively). With regard to natural increase, the excess in the number of deaths over the number of births gradually diminished, and this tendency culminated in the marginally positive natural increase in 2010 (+35 people). This tendency was somewhat more pronounced among Estonians and, in 2008 to 2011, resulted in a positive natural increase; due to the latter, in the course of four years, the number of Estonians increased by 4,000. In the period from 2000 to 2011, the population loss of Estonians, caused by a negative natural increase, was limited to 1.2%. However, the decrease, resulting from negative net migration, reached 1.9% in the same period. These figures indicate a change in the role of the two components compared to the 1990s, when the primary factor, reducing the number of Estonians was a negative natural increase. In a comparative perspective, the developments of the last decade have meant a certain improvement in the position of Estonia, with regard to population change. Although the population loss, in the 2000s, continued to be larger in Estonia than the average in any major region of Europe, the previously wide gap with average Estonian Human Development Report 2012/2013 25
Page 1: ESTONIAN HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2
Page 4 and 5: Table of Contents 1 Human Capital /
Page 6 and 7: Dear Reader Since the moment when E
Page 9 and 10: 1Human Capital Estonian Human Devel
Page 11 and 12: the HDI’s content has also been h
Page 13 and 14: Figure 1.1.1 The human development
Page 15 and 16: Figure 1.1.7 The income sub-index:
Page 17 and 18: The results of the Princeton Projec
Page 19 and 20: the hypothetical generation. The to
Page 21 and 22: Figure 1.2.3 Life expectancy. Eston
Page 23 and 24: Table 1.2.2 also presents the most
Page 25: The new trends that are appearing i
Page 29 and 30: New features were introduced into E
Page 31 and 32: Initiation of Voluntary Birth Contr
Page 33 and 34: Table 1.3.1 Best-known educational
Page 35 and 36: (OECD 2012b). Therefore a certain r
Page 37 and 38: The reciprocal dependence of the pr
Page 39 and 40: Figure 1.3.8 Percentage of students
Page 41 and 42: Table 1.3.4 The quality of educatio
Page 43 and 44: 1.4 Health Raul-Allan Kiivet Change
Page 45 and 46: Table 1.4.1 Usage of prescription m
Page 47 and 48: allude to the fact that approximate
Page 49 and 50: promote healthy lifestyles among th
Page 51 and 52: Figure 1.5.1 The World Values Surve
Page 53 and 54: Table 1.5.2 Estonia’s participati
Page 55 and 56: Figure 1.5.3 The percentage of the
Page 57 and 58: Figure 1.5.5 Percentage of the Esto
Page 59 and 60: The fact that Estonia’s position
Page 61 and 62: Summary Mati Heidmets The global vi
Page 63 and 64: 2People and Society Estonian Human
Page 65 and 66: Table 2.1.1 Structure of the Bertel
Page 67 and 68: tioning market economies (15 states
Page 69 and 70: 2.2 Freedom and democracy Martin M
Page 71 and 72: Table 2.2.1 Democracy indicators Po
Page 73 and 74: Figure 2.2.2 The distribution of th
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political participation are general
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strongest, while a very small perce
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is concerned, Estonia is one of the
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Figure 2.4.2 Average circulation of
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2.5 Corruption Jüri Saar In accord
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Lithuania, 61%; and in Russia, 69%.
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2.6.2 Intentional homicides in Esto
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crime. And thirdly, there was a wis
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References 1. Ahven, A. & Tabur, L.
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states included in the EU Kids Onli
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2.8 Public assessments of the state
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Figure 2.8.4 Changes releated to tr
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of the state’s development are en
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Table 2.9.1 The positions of Estoni
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3. IEP (2011). Structures of Peace.
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3Welfare and the Quality of Life Es
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choices made, not what people say t
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Figure 3.1.5 Public social spending
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tion agreed upon the social contrac
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References 1. Aidukaite, J. (2006).
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hand, to the “inequality of acces
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and explanations of the extent of i
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5- much more than I deserve. Some d
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people in Estonia consider the inco
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Table 3.3.1 Experienced Well-Being
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at about 70%. In Latvia and Lithuan
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sign. It seems that the usual view
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3.4 Quality of life Anu Toots 3.4.1
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a uniform composite indicator has n
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3.4.6 The components of life qualit
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Figure 3.4.4c Perceived quality of
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Figure 3.4.5 Changes in the depriva
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3.5 Environment dimension of well-b
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Figure 3.5.1.b Estonia’s position
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3.5.4 Energy intensity The energy i
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productivity, which is defined as t
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perceive themselves as worse off th
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4The Economy Estonian Human Develop
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vide a valuable connection for maki
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Figure 4.1.3 Components of economic
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ule of law, the sub-indicators for
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References 1. Acemoglu, D.; Robinso
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Development Report employs generali
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and pasture land, and this was capi
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Basing the total and net savings re
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4.3 Labour market Reelika Leetmaa,
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The problems include the very limit
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• Expenditures for active labour
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who lose their jobs. These ensure i
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4.4 Productivity and the economic s
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labour costs at the company level r
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Table 4.4.4 Comparison of the produ
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Figure 4.4.1 Annual average increas
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4.5 Innovation Erik Terk, Katrin M
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Table 4.5.2 Comparison of innovatio
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Table 4.5.4 Comparison of the indic
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in order to make the R&D potential
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It is characteristic of the South K
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mechanisms for increasing their sta
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Globalisation and Policy Patterns 5
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When Estonia regained its independe
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5.2 The impacts of globalisation an
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Table 5.2.2 Support of the differen
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5.3 Development policies Erik Terk,
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• C -the “Estonia-centred” su
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Figure 5.4.1 Support for the possib
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Summary Erik Terk Estonia is part o
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ehavioural patterns. Therefore, it
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EDR 2012/2013 authors Clemens Buche
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EDR 2012/2013 authors Alari Purju i
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Editor-in-Chief: Mati Heidmets Prod
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