DEVELOPMENT

tries of Eastern Europe. In the 1980s, Estonia experienced
a temporary reversal of the ageing trend, which
was caused by the small generation born during World
War I and the War Independence entering old age. Due
to the repeated disruptions in the process, the proportion
of elderly in Estonia at the end of the 1980s was
only 0.7 percentage points higher than at the beginning
of the 1940s. The median age of the population was
even lower than a half century earlier. Among European
countries, Estonia and Latvia share the record for halting
demographic ageing for the longest period, by means
of immigration.
The end of large-scale immigration and the simultaneous
transformation of several demographic processes
resulted in a marked acceleration of population ageing in
Estonia in the 1990s. In that period, the post-war immigrants
who had settled in Estonia in the 1940s and 1950s,
started to reach old age, adding momentum to the ageing
process. As a result, the proportion of elderly doubled
among the foreign-origin population, and reached parity
with the native population (Puur, Põldma 2010). The
combined effect of these factors increased the proportion
of the elderly from 11.6% to 17.4% (based on the census
data, the ratio has been adjusted to 17.7%) in Estonia
between 1990 and 2011. In that period, the tempo of
Figure 1.2.7
Natural increase, net migration and total population
increase. Estonia 1960–2011
Migration, per thousand
Population change
12
8
4
0
-4
-8
-12
-16
1960
1965
1970
1975
Net migration
1980
1985
1990
1995
Natural increase
2000
2005
2010
population ageing in Estonia has been exceeded by only
a few European nations. The rapid pace of ageing is also
revealed by the comparison with the main regions of
Europe (Figure 1.2.6).
Against the background of the trends since 1990,
it may seem surprising that the proportion of elderly
in Estonia has not increased during the last four years.
Like the disruption in the ageing trend in the 1980s, the
reason relates again to the aftermath of the erratic 20 th
century, or, more precisely, to the small size of the generation
born in Estonia toward the end of World War II
and immediately after the war (1943–1946). However, as
the following sections of the chapter reveal, this is only a
temporary cessation of demographic ageing.
1.2.7
Population change
In this chapter, so far, the demographic processes have
been dealt with separately, whereas now, the different
perspectives will be integrated by focusing on population
change. In the period perspective, change in the
number of population reflects a combined outcome
of fertility, mortality, immigration and emigration).
Indirectly, an even broader spectrum of demographic
processes is reflected (e.g. family formation and dissolution,
and health-related behaviour), as are the outcomes
of past demographic trends that are stored in the age
structure of the population. For the better understanding
of population change, the contribution made by its two
components – natural increase and net migration – are
shown below.
Considering the dynamics of the demographic processes
discussed in the earlier sections, it is, of course, not
surprising that based on population change the period
since 1960 is divided into very different parts in Estonia
(Figure 1.2.7). Although population growth decelerated –
by the late 1980s, the rate of growth had almost halved
compared to the 1960s – until the restoration of independence
it was still unusually large for a population that
had modernised early on. Estonia’s population increased
30% in the period between 1960 and 1989 (among Estonians,
the growth was 7.7%, among other ethnic groups it
amounted to 95%). This exceeded the population growth
in the Northern and Western European countries, in the
same period, 1.7 to 2.1 times, and was also considerably
larger than the growth observed for Southern Europe.
Likewise, the population grew faster than in Estonia in
1960–1989 in only a few European countries. Without
exception, these were countries in which the demographic
transition had ended several decades later. The
main reason for Estonia’s unprecedentedly rapid population
growth was, of course, the persistent large-scale
immigration from other parts of the former Soviet Union
-- until the mid-1970s, more than half, and in the 1980s,
approximately half of the total population growth was due
to positive net migration. In the same period, in Western
and Northern Europe, the contribution of net migration
averaged 24% and 13%, respectively. In Eastern Europe,
the role of migration was even smaller, and in Southern
Europe, due to the dominance of emigration, the net
migration made a negative contribution until the 1970s.
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Estonian Human Development Report 2012/2013