DEVELOPMENT
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tries of Eastern Europe. In the 1980s, Estonia experienced<br />
a temporary reversal of the ageing trend, which<br />
was caused by the small generation born during World<br />
War I and the War Independence entering old age. Due<br />
to the repeated disruptions in the process, the proportion<br />
of elderly in Estonia at the end of the 1980s was<br />
only 0.7 percentage points higher than at the beginning<br />
of the 1940s. The median age of the population was<br />
even lower than a half century earlier. Among European<br />
countries, Estonia and Latvia share the record for halting<br />
demographic ageing for the longest period, by means<br />
of immigration.<br />
The end of large-scale immigration and the simultaneous<br />
transformation of several demographic processes<br />
resulted in a marked acceleration of population ageing in<br />
Estonia in the 1990s. In that period, the post-war immigrants<br />
who had settled in Estonia in the 1940s and 1950s,<br />
started to reach old age, adding momentum to the ageing<br />
process. As a result, the proportion of elderly doubled<br />
among the foreign-origin population, and reached parity<br />
with the native population (Puur, Põldma 2010). The<br />
combined effect of these factors increased the proportion<br />
of the elderly from 11.6% to 17.4% (based on the census<br />
data, the ratio has been adjusted to 17.7%) in Estonia<br />
between 1990 and 2011. In that period, the tempo of<br />
Figure 1.2.7<br />
Natural increase, net migration and total population<br />
increase. Estonia 1960–2011<br />
Migration, per thousand<br />
Population change<br />
12<br />
8<br />
4<br />
0<br />
-4<br />
-8<br />
-12<br />
-16<br />
1960<br />
1965<br />
1970<br />
1975<br />
Net migration<br />
1980<br />
1985<br />
1990<br />
1995<br />
Natural increase<br />
2000<br />
2005<br />
2010<br />
population ageing in Estonia has been exceeded by only<br />
a few European nations. The rapid pace of ageing is also<br />
revealed by the comparison with the main regions of<br />
Europe (Figure 1.2.6).<br />
Against the background of the trends since 1990,<br />
it may seem surprising that the proportion of elderly<br />
in Estonia has not increased during the last four years.<br />
Like the disruption in the ageing trend in the 1980s, the<br />
reason relates again to the aftermath of the erratic 20 th<br />
century, or, more precisely, to the small size of the generation<br />
born in Estonia toward the end of World War II<br />
and immediately after the war (1943–1946). However, as<br />
the following sections of the chapter reveal, this is only a<br />
temporary cessation of demographic ageing.<br />
1.2.7<br />
Population change<br />
In this chapter, so far, the demographic processes have<br />
been dealt with separately, whereas now, the different<br />
perspectives will be integrated by focusing on population<br />
change. In the period perspective, change in the<br />
number of population reflects a combined outcome<br />
of fertility, mortality, immigration and emigration).<br />
Indirectly, an even broader spectrum of demographic<br />
processes is reflected (e.g. family formation and dissolution,<br />
and health-related behaviour), as are the outcomes<br />
of past demographic trends that are stored in the age<br />
structure of the population. For the better understanding<br />
of population change, the contribution made by its two<br />
components – natural increase and net migration – are<br />
shown below.<br />
Considering the dynamics of the demographic processes<br />
discussed in the earlier sections, it is, of course, not<br />
surprising that based on population change the period<br />
since 1960 is divided into very different parts in Estonia<br />
(Figure 1.2.7). Although population growth decelerated –<br />
by the late 1980s, the rate of growth had almost halved<br />
compared to the 1960s – until the restoration of independence<br />
it was still unusually large for a population that<br />
had modernised early on. Estonia’s population increased<br />
30% in the period between 1960 and 1989 (among Estonians,<br />
the growth was 7.7%, among other ethnic groups it<br />
amounted to 95%). This exceeded the population growth<br />
in the Northern and Western European countries, in the<br />
same period, 1.7 to 2.1 times, and was also considerably<br />
larger than the growth observed for Southern Europe.<br />
Likewise, the population grew faster than in Estonia in<br />
1960–1989 in only a few European countries. Without<br />
exception, these were countries in which the demographic<br />
transition had ended several decades later. The<br />
main reason for Estonia’s unprecedentedly rapid population<br />
growth was, of course, the persistent large-scale<br />
immigration from other parts of the former Soviet Union<br />
-- until the mid-1970s, more than half, and in the 1980s,<br />
approximately half of the total population growth was due<br />
to positive net migration. In the same period, in Western<br />
and Northern Europe, the contribution of net migration<br />
averaged 24% and 13%, respectively. In Eastern Europe,<br />
the role of migration was even smaller, and in Southern<br />
Europe, due to the dominance of emigration, the net<br />
migration made a negative contribution until the 1970s.<br />
24<br />
Estonian Human Development Report 2012/2013