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1.2.4 Mortality In regard to the second major component of population replacement – mortality – the period since 1960 can also be divided into several distinctive stages. However, compared to fertility, Estonia’s position on the population map of Europe has changed to a lesser extent during this period. Figure 1.2.3 presents the mortality trends by means of life expectancy at birth, which, similarly to the number of expected children (the total fertility rate), condenses the characteristics of the process into a single measure that summarises the mortality pattern for each calendar year. By the late 1950s, Estonia had recovered from a crisis that, in the mid-1940s, temporarily shot the mortality rates back to the post-World War I level (Mertelsmann 2011). By 1960, life expectancy for men had reached 64.7, and 73 years for women, which ensured a fairly good position for Estonia in international comparisons. The life expectancy of Estonian women was comparable to the Western European average at the time, while for the men, who had suffered greatly in the course of the war and the repressions, life expectancy lagged three to five years behind Northern and Western Europe. Unfortunately, life expectancy in Estonia only increased in the short term. After the middle of the 1960s, life expectancy stagnated throughout Eastern Europe. This can be seen as evidence of the limited developmental potential of the social model and health care systems in the state socialist countries (Coleman 2006). As revealed by Figure 1.2.3, , stagnation in life expectancy was somewhat more pronounced in Estonia than in the Eastern Europe on average. In the 1970s, a new stage in the increase of life expectancy arrived in the countries behind the Iron Curtain, which was primarily driven by the retreat of cardiovascular mortality (Vallin, Meslé 2005). As a result of divergent trends, by the end of the 1980s, in Europe, an extensive health gap had developed between the East and the West, which takes several decades to reduce. Unlike the fertility trends, which were generally similar across Eastern Europe in the 1990s, mortality trends diverged after the change of societal regime. In Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia and the Czech Republic, soon after the social changes, life expectancy started to increase, but in the former republics of the Soviet Union, the economic and social upheaval was first accompanied by a noticeable decrease in life expectancy. In some countries (e.g. Bulgaria and Hungary), the situation in the early 1990s was characterised by a continued stagnation in life expectancy. In this period, Estonia stands out with its large fluctuations in the mortality indicators. The life expectancy decreased markedly, and by 1994, it had fallen to 60.5 years for men, and 72.7 years for women. Against the background of the Central European transition countries, such an extensive reduction attests to both the tempo of the social and economic changes, and the difficulty of adapting to new realities; this especially affected working-age men. However, after the initial crisis, since the second half of the 1990s, life expectancy has increased vigorously, and in 2011, reached 71.2 years for men, and 81.8 for women (for Estonians 72.4 and 81.8 respectively). The main engines for this positive development have been the reduction in mortality due to cardiovascular diseases, and external causes (accidents, homicides, and suicides). The research results suggest that the observed change is not merely quantitative, but signals the entry into a new stage marked by a systematic reduction of deaths due to cardiovascular and anthropogenic causes (Jasilionis, et. al. 2011). As a result of the trends since the middle of the 1990s, the improvement in the position of Estonian women in international comparisons has been particularly visible. Among the EU’s eastern Member Countries, only in Slovenia is the average life expectancy for women longer than in Estonia, and the life expectancy of Estonian women only lags two years behind the average for women in Northern and Western Europe. Although, since the middle of the 1990s, the life expectancy for Estonian men have increased even more, the Estonian men had not yet caught up the average for Eastern Europe in 2011. The continued large, 6- to 7-year gap with other regions of Europe alludes to fact that the reduction male mortality constitutes a major reserve that would enable Estonia to considerably improve its position in international human development. Joonis 1.2.4 Net migration. Estonia and the European regions 1960–2011 Net migration, per thousand Estonia Western Europe Eastern Europe Northern Europe Southern Europe 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 -14 -16 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20 Estonian Human Development Report 2012/2013
Table 1.2.2 also presents the most recent infant mortality rates (i.e. the percentage of new-born children who die during the first year of life). In international comparisons, this is the second most widely used mortality indicator after life expectancy. Infant mortality is among the few demographic measures that provides a reading (2.5% in 2011) from which it is no longer possible to discern the lack of continuity in Estonia’s development in the 20 th century. In fact this is not surprising because, unlike older generations, the health of the new-born children does not bear the mark of the past. 1.2.5 Migration and urbanisation After World War II, about 200,000 Estonians lived outside the borders of Estonia, of them 110,000 in Russia, and 90,000 in the West (Tammaru, Kumer-Haukanõmm, Anniste 2010). The Estonian settlement in Russia had developed as a result of out-migration in the period of demographic transition. The Estonian settlement in the West primarily resulted from the great flight in 1944. The urbanisation level in pre-war Estonia was low, like in many East European countries, and towards the end of the independence period approximately one in three Estonians lived in urban settlements. Estonia’s incorporation into the Soviet Union affected migration more directly than the other population processes: it resulted in a large-scale immigration from Russia and other areas of the Soviet Union that lasted for several decades. Initially, the immigration to Estonia was largely organised by the Soviet authorities and all-Union enterprises, and therefore, many of those who had arrived in Estonia did not settle here permanently, but left after some time. In total, it is estimated that during the Soviet period, 1,600,000 people arrived in Estonia, and 1,260,000 left. This yields a positive net migration of 340,000 people (Sakkeus 1991). The return migration of Estonians from Russia also played a part in the immigration; in the post-war period, a total of 52 to 54 thousand Estonians returned (Kulu 1997). Until the 1960s, the intensive migration from Russia to other parts of the Soviet Union was supported by rapid population growth characteristic of the demographic transition in Russia in that period (Rõbakovskii 1987). Thereafter, Russia’s net migration to most Soviet Republics became negative. Only in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania did the positive net migration sustain until the end of the 1980s. However, during the 1970s and 1980s, the net migration in Estonia and the other Baltic countries was significantly less than at the beginning of the Soviet era. Against the background of Europe’s major regions, Estonia is distinguished by a high level of net migration until the restoration of independence (Figure 1.2.4). In Western and Northern Europe, the net migration was also positive in that period, but smaller than in Estonia. Due to the closed-off state borders during the period of state socialism, the international migration in the Eastern European countries was close to nil, and their populations were affected neither by immigration nor Joonis 1.2.5 Population, number of Estonians and other ethnic groups. Estonia 1960–2011 Population, thousands Estonians 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1960 1965 1970 Other ethnic groups 1975 1980 by emigrations. The greatest changes in migration flows during this period took place in Southern Europe. Until the 1970s, Southern Europe was an emigration region, with intra-European migration being highly significant for this region. At that time, flows from Southern Europe to Western Europe were prevailing in the intra-European migration (Castles, Miller 2008), compared to the flows from Eastern Europe to Western Europe today. Starting in the 1970s, Southern Europe gradually became a region of immigration. When Estonia’s independence was restored in 1991, the proportion of foreign-born population was among the highest in Europe: every fourth resident had been born outside of Estonia. For instance, at the same time, the percentage in Germany was 13%, 14% in Sweden, and only 4% in Finland. Among the European countries, only Luxembourg featured a higher percentage of foreign-born residents (30%) than Estonia or Latvia, and the percentage in Switzerland (21%) was largely comparable to ours. In 1945, Estonians comprised approximately 97% of Estonia’s population. The changes that took place, between 1960 and 2011, in the proportion of the native and foreign-origin population (immigrants and their children born in the receiving country) are approximated quite precisely by different ethnic groups in Figure 1.2.5. The majority of the immigrants settled in the urban areas, where the proportion of Estonians dropped, by the end of the 1980s, to an average of 51%, and to an even lower level in Tallinn and the cities of Ida-Viru 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Estonian Human Development Report 2012/2013 21
Page 1: ESTONIAN HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2
Page 4 and 5: Table of Contents 1 Human Capital /
Page 6 and 7: Dear Reader Since the moment when E
Page 9 and 10: 1Human Capital Estonian Human Devel
Page 11 and 12: the HDI’s content has also been h
Page 13 and 14: Figure 1.1.1 The human development
Page 15 and 16: Figure 1.1.7 The income sub-index:
Page 17 and 18: The results of the Princeton Projec
Page 19 and 20: the hypothetical generation. The to
Page 21: Figure 1.2.3 Life expectancy. Eston
Page 25 and 26: The new trends that are appearing i
Page 27 and 28: Figure 1.2.8 Components of populati
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Page 31 and 32: Initiation of Voluntary Birth Contr
Page 33 and 34: Table 1.3.1 Best-known educational
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Page 39 and 40: Figure 1.3.8 Percentage of students
Page 41 and 42: Table 1.3.4 The quality of educatio
Page 43 and 44: 1.4 Health Raul-Allan Kiivet Change
Page 45 and 46: Table 1.4.1 Usage of prescription m
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Page 49 and 50: promote healthy lifestyles among th
Page 51 and 52: Figure 1.5.1 The World Values Surve
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Page 57 and 58: Figure 1.5.5 Percentage of the Esto
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Page 61 and 62: Summary Mati Heidmets The global vi
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Figure 2.2.2 The distribution of th
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would be something that none of the
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political participation are general
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strongest, while a very small perce
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is concerned, Estonia is one of the
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Figure 2.4.2 Average circulation of
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2.5 Corruption Jüri Saar In accord
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Lithuania, 61%; and in Russia, 69%.
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2.6.2 Intentional homicides in Esto
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crime. And thirdly, there was a wis
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References 1. Ahven, A. & Tabur, L.
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states included in the EU Kids Onli
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2.8 Public assessments of the state
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Figure 2.8.4 Changes releated to tr
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of the state’s development are en
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Table 2.9.1 The positions of Estoni
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3. IEP (2011). Structures of Peace.
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3Welfare and the Quality of Life Es
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choices made, not what people say t
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Figure 3.1.5 Public social spending
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tion agreed upon the social contrac
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References 1. Aidukaite, J. (2006).
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hand, to the “inequality of acces
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and explanations of the extent of i
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5- much more than I deserve. Some d
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people in Estonia consider the inco
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Table 3.3.1 Experienced Well-Being
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at about 70%. In Latvia and Lithuan
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sign. It seems that the usual view
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3.4 Quality of life Anu Toots 3.4.1
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a uniform composite indicator has n
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3.4.6 The components of life qualit
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Figure 3.4.4c Perceived quality of
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Figure 3.4.5 Changes in the depriva
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3.5 Environment dimension of well-b
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Figure 3.5.1.b Estonia’s position
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3.5.4 Energy intensity The energy i
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productivity, which is defined as t
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perceive themselves as worse off th
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4The Economy Estonian Human Develop
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vide a valuable connection for maki
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Figure 4.1.3 Components of economic
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ule of law, the sub-indicators for
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References 1. Acemoglu, D.; Robinso
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Development Report employs generali
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and pasture land, and this was capi
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Basing the total and net savings re
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4.3 Labour market Reelika Leetmaa,
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The problems include the very limit
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• Expenditures for active labour
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who lose their jobs. These ensure i
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4.4 Productivity and the economic s
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labour costs at the company level r
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Table 4.4.4 Comparison of the produ
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Figure 4.4.1 Annual average increas
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4.5 Innovation Erik Terk, Katrin M
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Table 4.5.2 Comparison of innovatio
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Table 4.5.4 Comparison of the indic
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in order to make the R&D potential
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It is characteristic of the South K
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mechanisms for increasing their sta
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Globalisation and Policy Patterns 5
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When Estonia regained its independe
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5.2 The impacts of globalisation an
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Table 5.2.2 Support of the differen
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5.3 Development policies Erik Terk,
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• C -the “Estonia-centred” su
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Figure 5.4.1 Support for the possib
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Summary Erik Terk Estonia is part o
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ehavioural patterns. Therefore, it
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EDR 2012/2013 authors Clemens Buche
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EDR 2012/2013 authors Alari Purju i
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Editor-in-Chief: Mati Heidmets Prod
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