DEVELOPMENT

Figure 5.4.1
Support for the possible EU development options, %
Total PhDs Cultural figures Politicians Economic elite
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
Percentage
20
10
0
20
10
0
Collapse
Regionalisation of the EU,
or dissolution of the EU the development of
a “Europe of regions”
Strengthening of
the role of nation-states
in the European Union
The EU
remaining
as it is now
The EU remaining an association
of nation-states together with
supplemental functions
being assigned to the EU
Movement of
the EU toward
becoming
a federal state
are more reserved in their belief in an improvement of
education, and in the expansion of innovation as primary
shifts; only slightly more than 50% of the politicians
include the given spheres among the six main shifts. They
do not believe much in the e-governance perspectives
and, similarly to the other groups, do not believe that the
reduction of corruption could be an influential change.
The level of their expectations related to the significant
equalisation of incomes falls between those of the entrepreneurs
and the cultural and educational figures..
Viewing the sample a whole levels off the differences
between the groups, producing a much more economy-deterministic
picture. The main assumption, which
is shared by the largest number of respondents, is that
the economy will become more competitive (apparently
thanks to improved education and the spread of innovative
thinking) and this will result in increased incomes.
The respondents, generally, do not assume that income
differences will decrease, that ethnic relations will improve,
or that positive shifts will take place in the parameters of
the political environment (development of democracy,
reduction of corruption, etc.). The prevailing majority also
does not believe that the state of the natural environment
will improve, nor in the success of the e-governance that
became Estonia’s trademark during the previous period.
A certain uncertainty develops about whether in such an
environment it is logical to assume that Estonia’s economic
success will continue. Will the improvements related to
education and innovation provide sufficient means for this?
And what will be the factors that promote the improvement
of education and the growth of innovation?
One can ask whether it can be assumed that in the
next developmental period, the factors that brought success
in the last period will continue, or whether the impact of
the significant negative trends can be reversed, and the
situation related thereto improved. When comparing the
current assessments with the visions of the future, one
tends to assume the former. The period of last 10-15 years
was generally characterised by a well-developing economy, a
relatively innovative entrepreneurial atmosphere, improving
education, the growth of people’s incomes and an improvement
in health. Success in all these areas is also predicted
for the next period. As described in sub-chapter 5.2. some
negative trends have been developing: widening income
gap, declining confidence in the state authority, and deteriorating
demographic situation. Nothing good is predicted
for the first two in the next period either; and demographics
is the only sphere in which improvement is foreseen (the
survey methodology cannot determine the reasons for that
belief). During the last period, a modest improvement was
discerned in the parameters of the political environment
– in regard to democracy, corruption and ethnic relations.
However in the next period, the respondents do not see
important positive shifts occurring in these spheres. If it
turns out that the possibility of prolonging the impact of
the previous success factors is overrated, and new positive
developments in critical areas (trend breakes), do not occur,
the end result may be far from enviable.
As a separate question, we examined the attitudes
toward the European Union, as Estonia’s most relevant
economic and cooperation space – starting from assessments
of the EU and its role in relation to Estonia. A high
level of agreement was evident -- 76% of the respondents
stated that, for them, the European Union’s image was
very positive, or generally positive, and there were no
great differences between the elite groups about that. 69%
found that membership in the EU has significantly, or
somewhat, mitigated the negative impact of globalisation.
The economic elite were more convinced of this than the
other groups. As a rule, the decision-makers, who have a
positive assessment of globalisation, also have a positive
assessment of integration with the EU, and vice versa.
The recent Eurobaromater survey (Public… 2012)
showed that more people in Estonia find that the EU
has helped to better cope with the difficulties caused by
globalisation, than those who deny its role as a buffer.
However, the Estonian general public is not as positive as
the Estonian elite in regard to this question.
As far as the future of the EU is concerned, 72%
of the queried decision-makers were optimistic and, here
too, their level of optimism was higher than among Estonia’s
population as a whole. The economic elite are the
most optimistic; the politicians are slightly more critical.
The answers to the question about which possible
EU development path should be supported by Estonia are
reflected in Figure 5.4.1.
Estonian Human Development Report 2012/2013
205