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5.4 Future perspectives Erik Terk, Silja Lassur The survey also examined the Estonian elite’s view of Estonia’s future perspectives. We start with the significant shifts forecast for the next ten years. The respondents were asked to select important positive changes, which would impact the general situation in Estonia and which they expect/presume to take place. The top of the ranking of these shifts is shown in Table 5.4.1. Considering the level of the change expectation within the group (majority or minority of representatives expect the change), the differences of opinions between the groups and making some hypotheses about the connections between the shifts (which shifts could serve as premises for others), we obtained the following series of somewhat contradictory perspectives of the future. (When compiling the descriptions, we also used the assessments for the spheres where only individual groups expected changes and which were therefore omitted from the table) The cultural figures’ vision of the future -- one of the focal shifts changing the future will be the development of democracy (at the same time they were pessimistic about increased personal freedoms). They assumed that the education level and innovativeness in Estonia will increase, but in regard to these expectations the cultural figures were not as unanimous as the representatives of the other groups. The cultural figures have a somewhat greater belief than the other groups that the population’s trust of the state will increase somewhat and that economic inequality will decrease. The majority of them do not predict that an increase in the competitiveness of the economy will be one of the main shifts, which will change the situation in Estonia – they either do not believe it will increase, or do not consider it to be of primary importance. Economic policymakers’ vision of the future – the competitiveness of the economy will increase; this will, apparently, be helped along by improvements in education, and to a lesser extent, by an increase of innovative thinking. They do not believe/assume that incomes will be equalised to a greater extent. Neither do they assume that trust in the state will increase. Economic practitioners’ (entrepreneurs’) vision of the future -- there is a unanimous belief in the increase of the competitiveness of the economy; this primarily due to the growth of innovativeness, and to a lesser extent, due to an increased level of education. They do not believe in the reduction of income gap; and they believe less in a significant increase occurring in the population’s income, than the other groups do. They believe in the strengthening of the e-governance, but not in the strengthening of democracy. The entrepreneurs have even less faith than the others in the people’s trust in the state increasing. Recent PhD’s vision of the future – they are more sceptical than the average about the prospects of innovation. However, the majority believes in the growth of the competitiveness of the Estonian economy, but not as unanimously as the other elite groups. They believe in the increase of the educational level; in increased incomes; and in a reduction of income differences. Compared to the other groups, they are somewhat more optimistic about the reduction of corruption. Politicians’ vision of the future -- they believe in the growth of the economy’s competitiveness; in the increase in people’s incomes; and, for some reason, also, in an improvement in the demographic situation. The majority of this group’s representatives think that the given shifts will increase people’s satisfaction with their lives. Compared to the average of the respondents, the politicians Table 5.4.1 The spheres in which the respondents expect major progress during the next 10 years, % of respondents, who chose the corresponding sphere among their choices (maximum of six). Entrepreneurs Economic policymakers Politicians Cultural figures PhDs Total Competitiveness of the economy 77 64 67 46 57 61 Education 69 60 51 54 64 58 Extent of innovative thinking 85 67 56 54 41 57 Level of people’s income 46 50 56 51 59 54 Demographic situation 54 48 56 51 36 48 State of people’s health 46 52 40 31 52 45 People’s satisfaction with life 54 40 53 34 43 44 Development of democracy 15 33 30 57 36 37 People’s perception of security 38 26 42 37 32 35 Economic equality/inequality 23 24 35 37 45 35 204 Estonian Human Development Report 2012/2013
Figure 5.4.1 Support for the possible EU development options, % Total PhDs Cultural figures Politicians Economic elite 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 Percentage 20 10 0 20 10 0 Collapse Regionalisation of the EU, or dissolution of the EU the development of a “Europe of regions” Strengthening of the role of nation-states in the European Union The EU remaining as it is now The EU remaining an association of nation-states together with supplemental functions being assigned to the EU Movement of the EU toward becoming a federal state are more reserved in their belief in an improvement of education, and in the expansion of innovation as primary shifts; only slightly more than 50% of the politicians include the given spheres among the six main shifts. They do not believe much in the e-governance perspectives and, similarly to the other groups, do not believe that the reduction of corruption could be an influential change. The level of their expectations related to the significant equalisation of incomes falls between those of the entrepreneurs and the cultural and educational figures.. Viewing the sample a whole levels off the differences between the groups, producing a much more economy-deterministic picture. The main assumption, which is shared by the largest number of respondents, is that the economy will become more competitive (apparently thanks to improved education and the spread of innovative thinking) and this will result in increased incomes. The respondents, generally, do not assume that income differences will decrease, that ethnic relations will improve, or that positive shifts will take place in the parameters of the political environment (development of democracy, reduction of corruption, etc.). The prevailing majority also does not believe that the state of the natural environment will improve, nor in the success of the e-governance that became Estonia’s trademark during the previous period. A certain uncertainty develops about whether in such an environment it is logical to assume that Estonia’s economic success will continue. Will the improvements related to education and innovation provide sufficient means for this? And what will be the factors that promote the improvement of education and the growth of innovation? One can ask whether it can be assumed that in the next developmental period, the factors that brought success in the last period will continue, or whether the impact of the significant negative trends can be reversed, and the situation related thereto improved. When comparing the current assessments with the visions of the future, one tends to assume the former. The period of last 10-15 years was generally characterised by a well-developing economy, a relatively innovative entrepreneurial atmosphere, improving education, the growth of people’s incomes and an improvement in health. Success in all these areas is also predicted for the next period. As described in sub-chapter 5.2. some negative trends have been developing: widening income gap, declining confidence in the state authority, and deteriorating demographic situation. Nothing good is predicted for the first two in the next period either; and demographics is the only sphere in which improvement is foreseen (the survey methodology cannot determine the reasons for that belief). During the last period, a modest improvement was discerned in the parameters of the political environment – in regard to democracy, corruption and ethnic relations. However in the next period, the respondents do not see important positive shifts occurring in these spheres. If it turns out that the possibility of prolonging the impact of the previous success factors is overrated, and new positive developments in critical areas (trend breakes), do not occur, the end result may be far from enviable. As a separate question, we examined the attitudes toward the European Union, as Estonia’s most relevant economic and cooperation space – starting from assessments of the EU and its role in relation to Estonia. A high level of agreement was evident -- 76% of the respondents stated that, for them, the European Union’s image was very positive, or generally positive, and there were no great differences between the elite groups about that. 69% found that membership in the EU has significantly, or somewhat, mitigated the negative impact of globalisation. The economic elite were more convinced of this than the other groups. As a rule, the decision-makers, who have a positive assessment of globalisation, also have a positive assessment of integration with the EU, and vice versa. The recent Eurobaromater survey (Public… 2012) showed that more people in Estonia find that the EU has helped to better cope with the difficulties caused by globalisation, than those who deny its role as a buffer. However, the Estonian general public is not as positive as the Estonian elite in regard to this question. As far as the future of the EU is concerned, 72% of the queried decision-makers were optimistic and, here too, their level of optimism was higher than among Estonia’s population as a whole. The economic elite are the most optimistic; the politicians are slightly more critical. The answers to the question about which possible EU development path should be supported by Estonia are reflected in Figure 5.4.1. Estonian Human Development Report 2012/2013 205
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ESTONIAN HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2
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Table of Contents 1 Human Capital /
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Dear Reader Since the moment when E
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1Human Capital Estonian Human Devel
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the HDI’s content has also been h
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Figure 1.1.1 The human development
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Figure 1.1.7 The income sub-index:
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The results of the Princeton Projec
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the hypothetical generation. The to
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Figure 1.2.3 Life expectancy. Eston
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Table 1.2.2 also presents the most
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The new trends that are appearing i
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Figure 1.2.8 Components of populati
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New features were introduced into E
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Initiation of Voluntary Birth Contr
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Table 1.3.1 Best-known educational
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(OECD 2012b). Therefore a certain r
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The reciprocal dependence of the pr
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Figure 1.3.8 Percentage of students
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Table 1.3.4 The quality of educatio
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1.4 Health Raul-Allan Kiivet Change
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Table 1.4.1 Usage of prescription m
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allude to the fact that approximate
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promote healthy lifestyles among th
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Figure 1.5.1 The World Values Surve
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Table 1.5.2 Estonia’s participati
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Figure 1.5.3 The percentage of the
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Figure 1.5.5 Percentage of the Esto
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The fact that Estonia’s position
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Summary Mati Heidmets The global vi
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2People and Society Estonian Human
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Table 2.1.1 Structure of the Bertel
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tioning market economies (15 states
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2.2 Freedom and democracy Martin M
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Table 2.2.1 Democracy indicators Po
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Figure 2.2.2 The distribution of th
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would be something that none of the
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political participation are general
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strongest, while a very small perce
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is concerned, Estonia is one of the
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Figure 2.4.2 Average circulation of
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2.5 Corruption Jüri Saar In accord
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Lithuania, 61%; and in Russia, 69%.
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2.6.2 Intentional homicides in Esto
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crime. And thirdly, there was a wis
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References 1. Ahven, A. & Tabur, L.
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states included in the EU Kids Onli
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2.8 Public assessments of the state
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Figure 2.8.4 Changes releated to tr
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of the state’s development are en
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Table 2.9.1 The positions of Estoni
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3. IEP (2011). Structures of Peace.
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3Welfare and the Quality of Life Es
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choices made, not what people say t
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Figure 3.1.5 Public social spending
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tion agreed upon the social contrac
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References 1. Aidukaite, J. (2006).
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hand, to the “inequality of acces
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and explanations of the extent of i
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5- much more than I deserve. Some d
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people in Estonia consider the inco
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Table 3.3.1 Experienced Well-Being
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at about 70%. In Latvia and Lithuan
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sign. It seems that the usual view
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3.4 Quality of life Anu Toots 3.4.1
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a uniform composite indicator has n
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3.4.6 The components of life qualit
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Figure 3.4.4c Perceived quality of
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Figure 3.4.5 Changes in the depriva
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3.5 Environment dimension of well-b
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Figure 3.5.1.b Estonia’s position
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3.5.4 Energy intensity The energy i
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productivity, which is defined as t
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perceive themselves as worse off th
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4The Economy Estonian Human Develop
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vide a valuable connection for maki
Page 155 and 156: Figure 4.1.3 Components of economic
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Page 159 and 160: References 1. Acemoglu, D.; Robinso
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Page 163 and 164: and pasture land, and this was capi
Page 165 and 166: Basing the total and net savings re
Page 167 and 168: 4.3 Labour market Reelika Leetmaa,
Page 169 and 170: The problems include the very limit
Page 171 and 172: • Expenditures for active labour
Page 173 and 174: who lose their jobs. These ensure i
Page 175 and 176: 4.4 Productivity and the economic s
Page 177 and 178: labour costs at the company level r
Page 179 and 180: Table 4.4.4 Comparison of the produ
Page 181 and 182: Figure 4.4.1 Annual average increas
Page 183 and 184: 4.5 Innovation Erik Terk, Katrin M
Page 185 and 186: Table 4.5.2 Comparison of innovatio
Page 187 and 188: Table 4.5.4 Comparison of the indic
Page 189 and 190: in order to make the R&D potential
Page 191 and 192: It is characteristic of the South K
Page 193 and 194: mechanisms for increasing their sta
Page 195 and 196: Globalisation and Policy Patterns 5
Page 197 and 198: When Estonia regained its independe
Page 199 and 200: 5.2 The impacts of globalisation an
Page 201 and 202: Table 5.2.2 Support of the differen
Page 203 and 204: 5.3 Development policies Erik Terk,
Page 205: • C -the “Estonia-centred” su
Page 209: Summary Erik Terk Estonia is part o
Page 212 and 213: ehavioural patterns. Therefore, it
Page 214 and 215: EDR 2012/2013 authors Clemens Buche
Page 216 and 217: EDR 2012/2013 authors Alari Purju i
Page 218: Editor-in-Chief: Mati Heidmets Prod
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