DEVELOPMENT

18
Hajnal line
The Hanjal line is one of the oldest demographic divides
in Europe. In the 17th to 18th century, the so-called Malthusian
marriage, with its relatively late age (average age
of women at marriage was over 23, often 25–26 years)
and high percentage of never-marrying (over 10% of the
generation, often 15%–20%), emerged in the areas west
of the line. To the east of the Hajnal line, the traditional
early (average age at marriage 18–20 years) and universal
(2%–5% never-marrying) marriage persisted. The emergence
of the Malthusian marriage pattern was driven by
the reduction in mortality and accelerating population
growth, which started in the areas west of the Hanjal Line.
The Malthusian marriage can be seen as response of the
demographic system to amounting pressures of over-population,
mediated by the neo-local family formation that
had prevailed in these areas (neo-local family formation
assumed that the married couple would establish a separate
household). Because of the described causal chain,
which started from the reduction in mortality, the development
of the Malthusian marriage has sometimes been
considered as the onset of the demographic transition in
Europe. Although the Malthusian marriage, as well as the
Hajnal line, ceased to exist after World War II, its long-term
legacy is still visible in contemporary demographic patterns
(Puur et al. 2012).
Finns
St. Peterburg
Estonians
Russians
Latvians
Lithuanians
Poles
Belarusians
Germans
Ukrainians
Chechs
Slovaks
Austrians
Magyars
Croats
Romanians
Trieste
Serbs
Italians
Bulgarians
Albanians
Sources: Hajnal (1965); Plakans, Wetherell (2005).
Estonian Human Development Report 2012/2013 occurred in all the regions of Europe, although, as was
the case with the preceding decline, it turned out to be
somewhat more dynamic in Estonia. As a result, the
total rate emerged from the “extremely low” fertility
zone (1.3 or less children per woman), and from 2007
to 2010, reached slightly more than 1.6 children (78% to
79% of the recovery level). During the first decade of the
21 st century, the fertility rate in Estonia was the highest
among the eastern Member Countries of the European
Union.
On the fertility map of contemporary Europe – with
a fertility rate that was 10% to 15% lower than the recovery
level in Northern and Western Europe, on one hand,
and with a deficiency of 30% to 35% in relation to the
average in Southern and Eastern Europe, on the other
—in 2004–2008, Estonia moved toward the first group
(Figure 1.2.1). Unfortunately, the most recent correction
in the fertility trend, after 2008, halted this movement.
Although among Estonians, the total fertility rate achieved
a local maximum in the period of economic recession
(1.76 children per woman in 2010), the last few years
have seen a reduction in fertility. In 2011, the total fertility
rate was 8% lower than in 2008 and 2012 will bring an
additional decline. In a comparison with the EU’s Eastern
European members, this has meant that Estonia no longer
features the highest fertility rate, but has fallen to third
place (table 1.2.2).
The factors shaping the contemporary fertility
trends in Estonia, as well as in the other countries of
Europe, are complex, and providing a comprehensive
overview of them would require a more extensive a
consultation of specialised literature. However, one
simple, but very influential factor – the timing of childbearing
– cannot be ignored even in a cursory approach
(Billari et al. 2006). In the case of the contemporary
family model, with fewer children, the moment for
becoming parents can vary within relatively a long age
span. This is illustrated by Figure 1.2.2, which shows
that, after World War II, the timing of childbearing in
Europe has undergone two distinct development stages.
In the regions west of the Hajnal line (see the map),
the period of the Malthusian marriage model came to
an end in the 1950s and 1960s. The improvement of
the “availability” of marriage opened the way for earlier
childbearing and for a significant reduction in childlessness.
Together, these two developments explain to
a significant degree the high fertility, observed during
the baby boom period in Northern and Western
Europe.
In the early 1970s, the shift towards ever earlier
timing of childbearing was replaced, in both mentioned
regions, by a contrary trend. By the end of the 1970s,
the Southern European countries arrived at a similar
turning point. In the majority of the Eastern European
countries, the trend towards delayed childbearing began
in the early 1990s. Against the background of the universal
shift from fertility advancement to fertility postponement,
Estonia stands out with a quite unique trajectory.
Similarly to the other countries located to the west
of the Hajnal line, in the sphere of influence of the Malthusian
marriage model, a shift towards earlier marriage
and childbearing prevailed in the 1950s and 1960s. In