DEVELOPMENT

the hypothetical generation. The total fertility rate is
related to the concept of the replacement level, which
defines the average number of children necessary for
the replacement of the parental generation. Somewhat
paradoxically, the replacement level does not depend
on fertility but rather on mortality. In contemporary
low mortality settings, the replacement levels is slightly
less than 2.1 births per woman (in the developed countries
more than 99% of children survive to adulthood),
while in pre-modern settings it took 3.5 to 6, or even
more births, depending on the infant and child mortality,
to replace the parents.
Against the background of the major regions of
Europe, Estonia’s fertility development stands out with
several particularities. Firstly, from the end of World
War II until the second half of the 1960s, the Estonian
fertility remained below the recovery level, being one
of the lowest in Europe and the world in that period.
This deviation was presumably caused by the forced
reorganisation of the society (Klesment 2010). In the
Northern and Western European countries, with the
early onset of demographic modernisation that was
similar to Estonia, and where, in the 1930s, the fertility
had also fallen below the replacement level, a baby
boom occurred after the war, which brought fertility
above the replacement level for 20 to 25 years (depending
on the country, the total fertility rate reached 2.5 to
2.9 births per woman). The fertility in Southern Europe
was at the same level, but for another reason – namely
the transition to a modern demographic regime was
still underway. Contrary to popular conceptions about
the demographic differences between East and West,
Eastern Europe’s birth rate, in the 1960s, was lower
than in the remaining regions.
The situation profoundly changed in the 1970s
and 1980s. The Estonian fertility gradually moved its
ranking upward, from among the lowest countries. The
same applies to Eastern Europe as a whole. One driving
force underlying this changes was the increase in fertility
(8%, compared to the 1960s), which raised the total
fertility rate of the 1970s and 1980s to the replacement
level. However, no less important role in the change was
the concurrent fertility decrease in the other regions of
Europe. Thus, the post-war baby boom was followed
by a new wave of changes in population development.
This wave, known today as the second demographic
transition (SDT), brought fertility below the replacement
level (van de Kaa 1987; Lesthaeghe 1995). Like the “first”
demographic transition, the SDT started in Northern and
Western Europe after the mid-1960s, and later spread to
other regions.
Although in several Eastern European countries
fertility had fallen slightly below replacement already in
the 1980s, a sudden drop in fertility rates was initiated
by the social changes of the 1990s. This also applies to
Estonia, where, due to the relatively high fertility levels
in the 1980s, the decline appeared greater than the
average for the region. The early 1990s was a period of
the most rapid decrease in fertility in Estonia, and the
total fertility rate fell to its lowest level in 1998 (1.28
children). At the beginning of the 21 st century, fertility
started to increase. This increase in the fertility rates
Figure 1.2.1
Total fertility rate. Estonia and the European regions
1960–2011
TFR, children per woman
Age, years
Western Europe
Northern Europe
2,75
2,50
2,25
2,00
1,75
1,50
1,25
1,00
Southern Europe
Northern Europe
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
1960
1960
1965
1965
1970
1970
1975
Western Europe
Eastern Europe
1975
Southern Europe
Eastern Europe
1980
1980
1985
1985
1990
1990
1995
1995
2000
Estonia
2000
Estonia
In this chapter, the breakdown of the main European regions
is the following: Northern Europe — DNK, FIN, NOR, SWE;
Western Europe — AUT, BEL, CHE, DEU, GBR, FRA, IRL, LUX,
NLD; Eastern Europe — BGR, CZE, HUN, LTU, LVA, POL, ROM,
SVK, SVN; Southern Europe — ESP, GRC, ITA, PRT. To prevent
the larger countries dominating the pattern, the indicators for
the regions have been computed as an unweighted arithmetical
average of the country indicators.
Figure 1.2.2
Mother’s age at first birth. Estonia and the European
regions 1960–2011
2005
2005
2010
2010
Estonian Human Development Report 2012/2013
17