DEVELOPMENT

The results of the Princeton Project place Estonia among
the forerunners of demographic modernisation. Of all
the remaining European countries – except for France,
which was the only nation where the manifestations of
family planning were clearly evident in the early 19 th
century – Estonia belongs to the next group of countries,
where the turn toward a modern demographic
regime had gained momentum during the 1880s. The
early onset of the demographic modernisation in Estonia
is also confirmed by other comparative studies that are
based on different methodology (Chesnais 1992; Reher
2004). Considering the fact that the actual beginning
of the changes preceded the moment when the 10%
threshold was exceeded, and also that, of the two major
components of population replacement, the reduction in
mortality was initiated first, the start of Estonia’s demographic
modernisation may have occurred in the 1860s
(Katus 1994; 2000). This viewpoint is also supported by
the time-series of the crude fertility and mortality rates
that, in Estonia’s case, stretch back into the 18 th century
(Palli 1997).
In Estonia, the rapid and irreversible decline in
mortality and fertility, which is characteristic of demographic
modernisation, lasted until the 1930s. Similarly
to the majority of Northern and Western European
countries, and also Latvia and the Czech Republic,
during the decade before World War II, Estonia’s fertility
fell below the replacement level for the first time.
The corresponding moment in time is often considered
to be the border that marks the entry into a modern
demographic regime. In the remaining Eastern European
countries, as well as in Southern Europe, this
milestone was generally not reached until the 1970s
and 1980s. In the rest of the world, if we disregard the
English-speaking countries with populations that originated
in Europe, the change in the demographic regime
came at a much later period. Based on the criterion of
the Princeton European Fertility Project (the reduction
of the marital fertility rate by 10%), Japan appears to be
the only country where we can speak about the transition
to controlled fertility starting before World War II.
Most of the Latin America and the Asian countries did
not enter the new developmental stage until the 1960s
and 1970s. In Africa, the start of fertility transition was
postponed until the 1970s to 1990s, making it the last
region of the world where this occurred.
The timeframe and pattern of change in the demographic
regime remains the key to understanding the
country’s demographic situation, even if the transition
was completed long ago. Thus, the early timing of the
transition and modest population growth during the
transition, which is characteristic of most forerunners of
the transition, has pre-determined a great deal of Estonia’s
demographic development since the 1930s. Among
other things, it is one of the reasons that Estonians are
among the few peoples in Europe whose numbers have
not reached pre-war levels.
The very different timing of the demographic
modernisation is also a reason why it is not possible to
draw direct parallels between the current population
situations in Estonia and the Asian and South American
countries, which are included among the countries
used for the comparison in this report. The demographic
regime in South Korea, Singapore, Costa Rica and Chile
started to change only after World War II, and in the
late 1950s and early 1960s, there were still an average
of 5.5 to 7.2 births per woman in these countries. The
subsequent rapid modernisation reduced fertility to
below the replacement level in the South Korea and
Singapore in the course of 25 to 30 years, and in Costa
Rica and Chile, in the course of 40 to 50 years. In all
these countries, the largest generations of all time were
born in the last quarter of the 20 th century, which has
significantly contributed to their rapid economic and
social development. In Estonia, a similar phase of development
occurred in the late 19 th and early 20 th century;
the achievements of our large generations include the
establishment of statehood and success in the War of
Independence.
1.2.2
Population development during
the post-transition period
Besides the timeframe of its demographic modernisation,
another significant factor has also affected
Estonia’s position in the international comparison
– the discontinuity of country’s social and economic
development. In Estonia’s case, the beginning of the
modern demographic regime coincided with the loss
of statehood. The impact that the societal discontinuity
and a half century of occupation had on population
development appeared extensive, and this legacy is also
important for understanding the trends in the period
following the restoration of independence and the contemporary
situation.
In order to cast light on these influences, in the
next section of this chapter, the population trends in
Estonia and the four major regions of Europe – Northern,
Western, Eastern and Southern Europe -- have
been compared. In addition to changes in Estonia’s
position, this comparative perspective also highlights
the transformations in the European populations since
the early 1960s. To conserve space, statistical evidence
is presented mainly in graphic form, the presentation
of numerical data is limited to the most recent time
period (Table 1.2.2). The publication date of the report
allows us to present the results of the recent round of
population censuses, and based thereon, to summarise
the population changes in Estonia between 2000 and
2011. A short explanation is also provided of the content
of the dimensions used to characterise the population
processes.
1.2.3
Fertility and family processes
The total fertility rate, which summarises fertility
level for the calendar year by means of the number
of children, is presented in Figure 1.2.1. The total fertility
rate indicates the average number of births per
woman, based on the assumption that the age-specific
fertility patterns characteristic of the specific calendar
year continue throughout the reproductive years of
Estonian Human Development Report 2012/2013
15